2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[gatorcane]

06Z NAVGEM suddenly shows two TCs:

[Spacecoast]

Hmm...the GFS’s new Caribbean system is a little interesting. Three things grab my attention:
1.) Development starts well within 300 hours and appears to be moving up
2.) It’s not a typical WCar long-range storm that would likely be a biased phantom
3.) I think I’ve found its source: an AEW that emerges off of Africa later in the week. Gamma and Delta both had trackable AEW sources and they developed

If this system still appears by the end of the week and develops within 240 hours, I’ll actually consider its chances for development.

One thing grabs my attention:
1.) Total # of storms entering Carribbean in November over the last 178 years = 5 (Tomas, Gamma, Lenny, 1932, & 1878). Only 3 of these reached Hurricane status.....



It would be very unusual for this to occur in November. One would almost have to deny climotology to place high odds on this system, (and have a moderate amount of faith in the GFS 10+ day forecasting ability).

Having said that, perhaps the 2020 season will be the start of a new era in climatology.

[SFLcane]

It’s incredible to think the genesis happy gfs just had an upgrade. Just ridiculous it happens every yr around this time.

Stick to inside 100hrs

[tomatkins]

It’s incredible to think the genesis happy gfs just had an upgrade. Just ridiculous it happens every yr around this time.

Stick to inside 100hrs

So alot of hte models dont go beyond 10 days, at least in the public output that gets shown around here. The ICon only goes to 5 days at 18z and 6z. And most of the GFS craziness happens in the 10-16 day range. I wonder if they would all show more random genesis if they all went out to 16 days?

[LarryWx]

[SFLcane]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/K6Wvary.png

Another 300000 hr likely ghost. GFS and GFS/P have really been nothing short of hideous.

[aspen]

Just gonna point out that a few low-riding AEWs are modeled to be leaving Africa over the next 5 days, and one of those is probably what the GFS and GFS-Para are attempting to develop. The signal is probably being over-amplified due to rising convection forecast for late October and early November.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/CyclonicFury/status/1318655686285447175

[johngaltfla]

06Z NAVGEM suddenly shows two TCs:

https://i.postimg.cc/MGkRz3fX/nvg10-sfc10m-180-go-mex.gif

I'll take a hard pass on this one reflecting reality for $1000, Alex.

[Steve H.]

Which is really funny because the navy model was the only one showing the genesis of Mitch like two weeks before he happened.

[supercane4867]

Unrelated to the tropics but a 912mb extratropical low in late October is truly insane.

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1318681986253422593

[LarryWx]

18Z GEFS:

[AutoPenalti]

18Z GEFS:

https://i.imgur.com/ZsUDy5x.png

Oh boy, not again.

[aspen]

18Z GEFS:

https://i.imgur.com/ZsUDy5x.png

Oh boy, not again.

At least there are potential sources to watch: a couple of AEWs coming off of Africa this week. After “future Zeta” busted hard, I’m only going to care about any Halloween/early November development if the models still show it this time next week.

[SFLcane]

18Z GEFS:

https://i.imgur.com/ZsUDy5x.png

Sure...

What is it with this model and 18z??

My bet is it’s gone at 00z run later tonight.

[SFLcane]

Oh GFS just give it up already...

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe we shouldn’t post anything the GFS and GEFS show, I’m serious!

[SouthFLTropics]

Are we going to get suckered in again??? Unfortunately, due to our S2K and model addiction, the answer is most likely YES.

[TheStormExpert]

Are we going to get suckered in again??? Unfortunately, due to our S2K and model addiction, the answer is most likely YES.

Yeah I’m not buying it!


Besides Florida’s TC strike window is quickly closing.

[toad strangler]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/K6Wvary.png

378 hours out doesn't deserve the googly eyes in any way shape or form