ATL: EPSILON - Post-Tropical

[Iceresistance]

NHC is now saying 65 mph & 992 MB

[aspen]

The eye has been popping in and out as hot towers fire and rotate around the CoC. This is likely 60-70 kt right now.

[Kazmit]

I'm 90% sure this is a hurricane right now.

[aspen]

I'm 90% sure this is a hurricane right now.

Either the NHC will upgrade it at the 8pm intermediate advisory, or use 8pm to up it to 60 kt before upgrading it to a 65 kt hurricane at 11pm.

[Buck]

Not upgraded yet...

8:00 PM AST Tue Oct 20
Location: 28.2°N 56.3°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[aspen]

Not upgraded yet...

8:00 PM AST Tue Oct 20
Location: 28.2°N 56.3°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

The advisory dialogue said Epsilon is likely to be a hurricane soon, so this could be a hint that they’ll upgrade it at 11.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 27, 2020102100, , BEST, 0, 283N, 563W, 60, 990, TS,

Not upgraded yet.

[ElectricStorm]

It looked like there was a brief dry slot trying to get to the core on IR, but it looks like it's trying to wall it off now. Should be a hurricane by next advisory or 2.

[aspen]

This is almost certainly a hurricane now. The eye has opened up again, and it keeps successfully fighting off any bit of dry air trying to get into the core. Epsilon might be a high end Cat 1 by the time recon arrives tomorrow afternoon.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 27, 2020102100, , BEST, 0, 283N, 563W, 65, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 280, 90, 50, 300, 1010, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EPSILON, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 062,

[CyclonicFury]

Welcome back Hurricane Epsilon. Epsilon is the only Greek name to become a hurricane twice. I'm sure some of the older NHC forecasters still remember the tenacious storm that was Epsilon of 2005. This incarnation of Epsilon is significantly earlier than its 2005 version, though.

[aspen]

Welcome back, mid latitude wandering Cat 1 Hurricane Epsilon. Let’s see if this one exceeds the intensity of its predecessor.

The NHC accidentally called it Delta in the 11pm discussion.

[ElectricStorm]

NHC seems pretty reluctant to increase the forecasted peak intensity to anything higher than 75kts. Epsilon became a hurricane much quicker than forecasted, and I don't see much holding it back from at least a Cat 2 at this point unless dry air gets in there somehow. They mention OHC will be low but I don't see how that would limit it unless it stalls or moves very slow but that's not forecasted to happen...

[aspen]

Tomorrow is likely Epsilon’s best chance to exceed 80 kt, due to low shear and the last bit of ~28C waters. Fortunately, recon will be there to catch it. I could see Epsilon making a run for major status at the high end, and a Cat 2 seems pretty likely, with it maintaining Cat 1 status until post-tropical transition. That could rack up at least 10 ACE and get 2020 past 130 ACE.

[ClarCari]

lol the accidental Delta slip in the discussion awww poor guys over there at NHC are over it

Also are there any other example of Hurricanes with this same kind of “sub” tropical-look Epsilon has. The eye makes it more obvious which part of the system is the “main” system compared to the rest. It’s an interesting look.

[HurricaneBelle]

lol the accidental Delta slip in the discussion awww poor guys over there at NHC are over it

Also are there any other example of Hurricanes with this same kind of “sub” tropical-look Epsilon has. The eye makes it more obvious which part of the system is the “main” system compared to the rest. It’s an interesting look.

The "perfect storm" in 1991 had a hurricane develop within its circulation

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1318749689500569600

[ClarCari]

Thankfully even if this Epsilon becomes stronger than forecasted it at least would still behave according to guidance alot more than the last version of Epsilon
The NHC has already had too many headaches with this season as we all have *coughisaiassallybetacough*. Kinda nice to have a kid who behaves after dealing with a bunch of brats all year!
(and I mean storms not the fam here at storm2k<3)

[ElectricStorm]

Hot tower blowing up on the west side, really getting going now.

[storminabox]

This is a formidable but rather small hurricane!