Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[SouthFLTropics]

FWIW, ICON is showing a weak low in this general location as well with the same general heading.

[Blown Away]

FWIW, ICON is showing a weak low in this general location as well with the same general heading.

06z ICON

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1318894406930485249

[cp79]

I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again...stick a fork in it. Maybe next week something could get going but not this week. Let’s turn the page on this ghost.

[northjaxpro]

I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again...stick a fork in it. Maybe next week something could get going but not this week. Let’s turn the page on this ghost.

Please!! Most of you all have been chasing this ghost for more than 10 days now. I am with you cp79.

It has long been time to move on from this SW/Western Caribbean ghost..

[underthwx]

Poof......it's gone...I thought all along it was a certainty it would eventually turn into something.........wrong...

[Frank2]

It's not gone poof here in Southeast Florida - we've been stuck with monsoonal rain for the past few days - so far in my area at least 9 - 12" from the northern extension of the wave.

It's probably what the models were focusing on last week - the wave moves east and then backs to the west and moves slowly and erractically for a few days...

Frank

[Loveweather12]

I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again...stick a fork in it. Maybe next week something could get going but not this week. Let’s turn the page on this ghost.

Please!! Most of you all have been chasing this ghost for more than 10 days now. I am with you cp79.

It has long been time to move on from this SW/Western Caribbean ghost..

Something could still form. If it bothers you, why come on this page then? Let people discuss in relation to this potential system. If people posting on this thread bothers you, their are other threads you could go on. I for one enjoy the discussion on this thread

[jconsor]

The potential tropical development discussed in tweet below is connected to the W. Caribbean system, as a part of it is likely to eject NE toward the NE GOM and then Bahamas.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1318912324560879616

[TheStormExpert]

It's not gone poof here in Southeast Florida - we've been stuck with monsoonal rain for the past few days - so far in my area at least 9 - 12" from the northern extension of the wave.

It's probably what the models were focusing on last week - the wave moves east and then backs to the west and moves slowly and erractically for a few days...

Frank

We’ve been mostly stuck in this runt of a rainy weather pattern here since the last day of September! It’s time for a decent cold front to move through this state and clear this out!

[northjaxpro]

[quote="Loveweather12"][quote="northjaxpro"][quote="cp79"]I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again...stick a fork in it. Maybe next week something could get going but not this week. Let’s turn the page on this ghost.[/quote]

Please!! Most of you all have been chasing this ghost for more than 10 days now. I am with you cp79.

It has long been time to move on from this SW/Western Caribbean ghost..[/quote]

Something could still form. If it bothers you, why come on this page then? Let people discuss in relation to this potential system. If people posting on this thread bothers you, their are other threads you could go on. I for one enjoy the discussion on this thread[/quote]



I come on any page or thread as I please. You, or anyone else does not bother me at all. I am a longtime poster and member of Storm2K, and have absolutely nothing against anyone on this forum.

These model ghosts happens èvery once and awhile, which is proof that a thread really should not get started until an incipient area is actually evolving for models to latch onto for development. I understand the Storm2K rule in place for starting threads IF an incipent area is in place

Now, if you want to discuss model ghosts and what çould happen, then the Global Models Discussion Thread is perfectly designed for you to talk nonstop about such things.

Have a grèat day.....

[Spacecoast]

I believe it is something. Not a long range GFS scary ghost, and certainly nothing to be afraid of, but many models showing what looks to be a weak TD/TS forming between Miami and Bahamas on Oct 25th, or 26th...

NAV:

UKM:

CMC:

ECMF:


The GFS, GFS-Para do not show development, perhaps the script has flipped.

[Nuno]

It's not gone poof here in Southeast Florida - we've been stuck with monsoonal rain for the past few days - so far in my area at least 9 - 12" from the northern extension of the wave.

It's probably what the models were focusing on last week - the wave moves east and then backs to the west and moves slowly and erractically for a few days...

Frank

We’ve been mostly stuck in this runt of a rainy weather pattern here since the last day of September! It’s time for a decent cold front to move through this state and clear this out!

I'm enjoying the end of rainy season. Once that front moves through, it's all over and bone dry until July...

[northjaxpro]

UKMET and CMC are showing a potential development in the Bahamas. We have disturbed weather in the Bahamas ,or in that
vicinity currently, so right now, I would.look at those models with some credibility atm.

[SFLcane]

Hwrf also has some development I just can’t get the domain to pull up.

[TheStormExpert]

It's not gone poof here in Southeast Florida - we've been stuck with monsoonal rain for the past few days - so far in my area at least 9 - 12" from the northern extension of the wave.

It's probably what the models were focusing on last week - the wave moves east and then backs to the west and moves slowly and erractically for a few days...

Frank

We’ve been mostly stuck in this runt of a rainy weather pattern here since the last day of September! It’s time for a decent cold front to move through this state and clear this out!

I'm enjoying the end of rainy season. Once that front moves through, it's all over and bone dry until July...

Yes it’ll likely be bone dry due to La Niña, but the Rainy Season starts back up in mid-May, not July.

[Nuno]

We’ve been mostly stuck in this runt of a rainy weather pattern here since the last day of September! It’s time for a decent cold front to move through this state and clear this out!

I'm enjoying the end of rainy season. Once that front moves through, it's all over and bone dry until July...

Yes it’ll likely be bone dry due to La Niña, but the Rainy Season starts back up in mid-May, not July.

It's supposed to be mid-May but the last five years have been relatively dry in May and June compared to what the climatological norm is.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm enjoying the end of rainy season. Once that front moves through, it's all over and bone dry until July...

Yes it’ll likely be bone dry due to La Niña, but the Rainy Season starts back up in mid-May, not July.

It's supposed to be mid-May but the last five years have been relatively dry in May and June compared to what the climatological norm is.

I’m guessing you don’t live in South Florida, this past May was just as wet as this October with around a foot of rain here.

[Nuno]

Yes it’ll likely be bone dry due to La Niña, but the Rainy Season starts back up in mid-May, not July.

It's supposed to be mid-May but the last five years have been relatively dry in May and June compared to what the climatological norm is.

I’m guessing you don’t live in South Florida, this past May was just as wet as this October with around a foot of rain here.

I've lived in South Florida my whole life and have seen a gradual shift to a later wet-season. May had a few days at the end of the month that was excessive, but otherwise the 45 day period from Mid-May to late June wasn't as wet. We're seeing a lot of extreme precipitation events that cause monthly averages to match up to climatological norms, but it's bunched up in extreme rainfall days. Take a peek at https://www.weather.gov/mfl/mia_cliplot you can see a pattern emerging if you look at the past few May and June totals. I'll take this to the Florida weather thread from here on out so we're not off topic.

[TheStormExpert]

It's supposed to be mid-May but the last five years have been relatively dry in May and June compared to what the climatological norm is.

I’m guessing you don’t live in South Florida, this past May was just as wet as this October with around a foot of rain here.

https://www.weather.gov/images/mfl/rtimages/cliplot/KMIA202005plotP-2.png
https://www.weather.gov/images/mfl/rtimages/cliplot/KMIA202006plotP-2.png

I've lived in South Florida my whole life and have seen a gradual shift to a later wet-season. May had a few days at the end of the month that was excessive, but otherwise the 45 day period from Mid-May to late June wasn't as wet. We're seeing a lot of extreme precipitation events that cause monthly averages to match up to climatological norms, but it's bunched up in extreme rainfall days. Take a peek at https://www.weather.gov/mfl/mia_cliplot you can see a pattern emerging if you look at the past few May and June totals. I'll take this to the Florida weather thread from here on out so we're not off topic.

Where about in South Florida do you live? I’m in Palm Beach Gardens near West Palm Beach.