ATL: EPSILON - Post-Tropical

[kevin]

Now 976 mbar and 75kts/85mph. NHC mentions that by definition Epsilon has experienced a period of RI, increasing 30+ kts within 24 hours.

935
WTNT42 KNHC 210852
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

Epsilon has maintained an eye in infrared satellite images during
the past few hours, although a 0522 UTC AMSR microwave image
indicated that the eastern and southern eyewall were a little thin
at the time. Still, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT, unanimously increased to T4.5/77 kt, and Epsilon's
intensity is therefore set at 75 kt. By definition, Epsilon has
rapidly intensified, its intensity increasing more than 30 kt
during the past 24 hours.

As expected, Epsilon has turned toward the west-northwest with an
initial motion of 300/12 kt, in response to a mid-tropospheric ridge
which has built to the north of the hurricane. This ridge is
expected to cede control to another ridge positioning itself east of
Epsilon during the next 24 hours, which should steer the cyclone
back to the northwest and then north Thursday and Thursday night.
Epsilon is then expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies this weekend, accelerating northeastward toward the north
Atlantic by the end of the forecast period. The GFS and HWRF
models are showing some deviation to the east and west,
respectively, of the other tightly packed guidance during the
expected recurvature to the east of Bermuda. However, given that
that there is little spread among the other models, the NHC track
prediction remains close to the simple and corrected multi-model
consensus aids.

Relatively low vertical shear could foster some additional
strengthening today, but oceanic heat content values are expected
to fall to zero in 12-24 hours, which is likely to temper how much
intensification can occur. During the first few days, the NHC
intensity forecast lies between the nearly steady-state HCCA and
IVCN aids and the slightly higher SHIPS and LGEM models. This
forecast allows for some modest strengthening but generally shows
little change in strength for the next 3 days. Some gradual
weakening is anticipated on days 4 and 5 as Epsilon merges with a
cold front and becomes extratropical, but it is likely to still be
a powerful cyclone as it moves toward the north Atlantic at the end
of the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday,
when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the
island as a hurricane.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 28.9N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 29.5N 59.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 30.4N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 33.1N 61.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 34.3N 61.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 35.8N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 40.0N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 46.0N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

[SconnieCane]

For some reason map at the top still shows Epsilon as TD 27

[Buck]

For some reason map at the top still shows Epsilon as TD 27

The map is just worn out from all the updating it’s had to do this year.

[plasticup]

Wow, that's a really impressive 12 hours. Glad this one is going east. Looks even better on IR and first-morning visible than it did at the 5am update. I suspect the RI continues.

[Ryxn]

Epsilon is looking BEAUTIFUL right now. I'd say it may be my favorite storm appearance-wise of the season due to its spiral and small tight core.



https://linksharing.samsungcloud.com/3DQDtRFFI9pN

[kevin]

Epsilon truly is a beautiful looking storm. Here's the most recent IR loop. Seems like NHC doesn't think it'll intensity that much more, but if RI continues for a bit longer I think a cat 2, maybe even a low-end cat 3 (even though I think that's really its theoretical ceiling) might be possible.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Probably the coolest storm of the year so far to me at least. Epsilon is a beauty. The last time we had an Epsilon it was a really cool storm too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[kevin]

Also, does anyone know why there are no ADT estimates for Epsilon (at least on http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/adt.html)?

[jconsor]

Hurricane Epsilon is in rare territory here in terms of rapid intensification so far NE so late in the hurricane season (note - it intensified by 30 kt in 24 hours as of 6Z today):

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1318762168750280704




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1318884800900550656

[Kazmit]

Gorgeous storm.

[jconsor]

Not sure why ADT estimates aren't showing on the regular CIMSSS site, but you can see a text list of ADT estimates here:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2 ... L-list.txt

Also they are included on the graph here (blue diamonds):
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... _ssmis.gif

Also, does anyone know why there are no ADT estimates for Epsilon (at least on http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/adt.html)?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1318889804914982914

[aspen]

What an extremely healthy-looking storm for this far north. I think it could be currently stronger than 75 kt. Recon is expected to leave around 17z this afternoon, right?

[supercane4867]

Very unique structure. Looks like a hybridcane

[Kazmit]

What an extremely healthy-looking storm for this far north. I think it could be currently stronger than 75 kt. Recon is expected to leave around 17z this afternoon, right?

Eh, Hurricane Nicole made cat 4 a few years ago at a similar latitude and time of year. Although I do think Epsilon is a cat 2 right now.

[aspen]

What an extremely healthy-looking storm for this far north. I think it could be currently stronger than 75 kt. Recon is expected to leave around 17z this afternoon, right?

Eh, Hurricane Nicole made cat 4 a few years ago at a similar latitude and time of year. Although I do think Epsilon is a cat 2 right now.

Epsilon is at a disadvantage compared to Nicole because the latter was the first hurricane to pass through that region in 2016, meaning there were plenty of untapped waters for it to become a major. For Epsilon, it has to work with lower SSTs that still haven’t entirely recovered from Paulette and Teddy, so looking this good (perhaps making a run for a major due to how compact and well-defined the core is) is extra impressive.

[ElectricStorm]

I do think Epsilon is a Cat 2 for now... But a dry slot has made it to the core in IR

[cycloneye]

Up to 80 kts.

27L EPSILON 201021 1200 28.9N 58.7W ATL 80 974

[Iceresistance]

Very unique structure. Looks like a hybridcane

https://i.imgur.com/0VPuMyZ.png

I've never seen a hurricane like that!

[tolakram]

saved loop