Texas Fall 2020

[Brent]

18z GFS casually dropping about 5-6 inches on DFW.

I don't buy this for a second but okay

[Cerlin]

18z GFS casually dropping about 5-6 inches on DFW.

I don't buy this for a second but okay

https://i.ibb.co/0FT8xBf/gfs-asnow-scus-34.png

Oh I do—I’m residing in Norman right now. I’m convinced I produce a snow hole so it’d be fitting that just me didn’t see snow next week

[Ntxw]

What a troll the GFS is .

It would take some historic cold for late October, an unusual PVa (absolute perfect ejection from the southwest.)

One thing at a time. On a good note the soi has been consistently negative the past few days. It has fallen dramatically from the high values which signals major weather system down the road.

[TropicalTundra]

25 degrees and 4 inches of snow in Bell. Go home GFS, you’re drunk.

[Brent]

The coldest October high and low on record at DFW is 34/24

As mentioned before the record snow is a trace

[mcallum177]

FWIW 2 of the GEFS members have a TS or Hurricane coming into LA/MS coast around the time of this fantasy snow storm. 2020

[Brent]

Back to no snow on the 0z GFS

Fropa Sunday evening Rain Monday close to a freeze Tuesday but dry

Meanwhile on the CMC Dallas is near 80 Tuesday

[starsfan65]

Back to no snow on the 0z GFS

Fropa Sunday evening Rain Monday close to a freeze Tuesday but dry

Meanwhile on the CMC Dallas is near 80 Tuesday

I don't buy the CMC.

[gpsnowman]

For as warm as it may have seem in October, for DFW it has only been +1F and that will be cut sharply by the time the big front comes through. We may actually end up near normal if not slightly below.

As for models, I'm still expecting a cold rain in October but well below average. First widespread 30s lows for areas north of I-10.

Forecasts are playing catch-up with these numbers. The front next week means business. Bring it!

[mcallum177]

GEFS still has a few members throwing ice and snow across North Texas and the Panhandle.

[Brent]

I definitely wanna see the NAM when it gets in range but that won't be til Friday and this weekend unfortunately lol

The Euro is much warmer and the snow is even NW of OKC because the SE ridge is much stronger but it usually struggles with arctic air

[starsfan65]

The latest GFS run is in.

[Cerlin]

The latest GFS run is in.

Hell of an ice storm for NTX and Oklahoma

[Brent]

The gfs is definitely mostly freezing rain near DFW although verbatim temps are around 33-35 degrees for the immediate metro



So far the Euro is colder with temps in the 40s on Monday which agrees with the GFS

It's much drier than the GFS for Tuesday though and temps pretty much stay in the 40s so no wintry close by this run

[cheezyWXguy]

6z GFS is colder and more aggressive with the frozen precip. I can’t believe the models are still entertaining this scenario 6 days away now. Still, no way I am starting to buy in until this is less than 3 days out.

BTW, what is fueling such an intense front? Obviously not WPAC activity

[TeamPlayersBlue]

6z GFS is colder and more aggressive with the frozen precip. I can’t believe the models are still entertaining this scenario 6 days away now. Still, no way I am starting to buy in until this is less than 3 days out.

BTW, what is fueling such an intense front? Obviously not WPAC activity

Big NPAC high. Get used to it for this year.

[texas1836]

6z GFS is colder and more aggressive with the frozen precip. I can’t believe the models are still entertaining this scenario 6 days away now. Still, no way I am starting to buy in until this is less than 3 days out.

BTW, what is fueling such an intense front? Obviously not WPAC activity

Big NPAC high. Get used to it for this year.

How can you tell it'll be here all Winter? Last season started out the same (With cooler temps), but seemed to vanish.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

6z GFS is colder and more aggressive with the frozen precip. I can’t believe the models are still entertaining this scenario 6 days away now. Still, no way I am starting to buy in until this is less than 3 days out.

BTW, what is fueling such an intense front? Obviously not WPAC activity

Big NPAC high. Get used to it for this year.

How can you tell it'll be here all Winter? Last season started out the same (With cooler temps), but seemed to vanish.

Upper level highs parked on or near the west coast is a La nina signal. The high will shift around some, but it's an indication of La nina.

That position of the high increases chances of bringing down big fronts from Canada.

Last year was a bit more of an El nino signature in the pacific. This winter will have a different pattern entirely.

[CaptinCrunch]

GFS =

It's going to BUST 89% of the time this Winter!

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS =

It's going to BUST 89% of the time this Winter!

If that means it gets it right on 11% of these winter weather depictions, it’ll be better than the last 5 winters, haha