Texas Fall 2020

[cheezyWXguy]

I’ve heard on here periodically that patterns tend repeat every few weeks or so through the winter. I hope that’s actually true, because this pattern in Jan/feb would be very promising.

[mcallum177]

The 12Z GEFS still has a few icy members.

[CaptinCrunch]

GFS =

It's going to BUST 89% of the time this Winter!

If that means it gets it right on 11% of these winter weather depictions, it’ll be better than the last 5 winters, haha

that 11% is mostly for rain

[Brent]

GFS =

It's going to BUST 89% of the time this Winter!

last time the GFS had a "snowstorm" here and the Euro had rain it rained

I'm not ruling anything out but I'll wait and see the models this weekend before I get too worked up been burned too many times

honestly a good solid rain isn't the worst thing... we badly need it this month since it hasn't rained

[Ralph's Weather]

I’ve heard on here periodically that patterns tend repeat every few weeks or so through the winter. I hope that’s actually true, because this pattern in Jan/feb would be very promising.

There seems to be something to a 6 week cycle. Not sure on the cause. That would be early to mid Dec for the next round, then late Jan, then early March.

[Ralph's Weather]

Next week western N TX could well see some mixed precip. Also watch out for the ejecting closed low late next week, if this were winter that would be great for snow. Next week looks cold and wet at the very least.

[lukem]

I just noticed the low in Livingston, Montana on Sunday is -7. We have a place up there and I don't ever remember it getting that cold in October. This is a very cold air mass for this time of year.

[Brent]

The 12z Euro isn't even close again, only a dusting basically in the Panhandle zero in Oklahoma DFW in the 40s/50s Monday Tuesday not that much precip around either

Clearly some large disagreements

[texas1836]

Big NPAC high. Get used to it for this year.

How can you tell it'll be here all Winter? Last season started out the same (With cooler temps), but seemed to vanish.

Upper level highs parked on or near the west coast is a La nina signal. The high will shift around some, but it's an indication of La nina.

That position of the high increases chances of bringing down big fronts from Canada.

Last year was a bit more of an El nino signature in the pacific. This winter will have a different pattern entirely.

Thank you for the detailed response. This could be an adventurous, fun, Fall/Winter to watch. The outlook for November looks a bit on the chilly side, but then again, we have time to analyze.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm hope the Euro is wrong. It had the front pushing all the way through Louisiana a few days ago like the GFS but now doesn't appear to even make it to Houston. The 12z GFS would give us all a nice taste of winter.

[BTAYLOR5021]

There have been a few cool-cold La Nina winters in the past for North Texas. Hope 2020-2021 is one of those winters.

[mcallum177]

Alright Texas friends, let's see if this thread becomes almost as active as an Invest in July thread as we model watch this system over the next few days.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Euro v GFS already. Would love a solid front for us at least. Maybe some ice for our DFW friends.

[Ntxw]

I have doubt it will be any ice. Temps are nowhere near cold enough at the surface and time of year hardly ever supports an ice storm. I think it's the case where it is a cold rain. If there is a shot then it's either snow with the ULL or sleet/rain mix.

But that's a long shot. It will get chilly and likely a first freeze for many.

[starsfan65]

I have doubt it will be any ice. Temps are nowhere near cold enough at the surface and time of year hardly ever supports an ice storm. I think it's the case where it is a cold rain. If there is a shot then it's either snow with the ULL or sleet/rain mix.

But that's a long shot. It will get chilly and likely a first freeze for many.

It is 2020!! Anything could happen!!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

This is similar to the September system everything depends on how much of the system cuts off into the SW. I am leaning towards a blend of CMC and Euro. Most early week frozen precip will be confined to NW TX with not a huge amount of rainnfor most of us. I will continue to watch the ejection of the upper low as it could generate sub freezing temps in the mid levels with precip. Could well see some sleet or snow under the core of the upper low later next week. We are way too far out to forecast that path.

[Brent]

I have doubt it will be any ice. Temps are nowhere near cold enough at the surface and time of year hardly ever supports an ice storm. I think it's the case where it is a cold rain. If there is a shot then it's either snow with the ULL or sleet/rain mix.

But that's a long shot. It will get chilly and likely a first freeze for many.

Yeah I just flat out don't think it's gonna be cold enough for the majority of it the gfs maps are way overdone as usual

And even if you look at the 18z gfs it trended warmer

If this were a month or two later it'd be way more interesting it's so early

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah i get it. Super early for a big storm like that, but the air coming down on the op GFS is very cold.

By looking at the GFS Ens and Euro Ens, i dont believe it will play out anyway. Would have been nice though. The GFS from a few days ago is what we want though. Trough diving through the Rockies down to or below Big Bend. Lets hope for more of that.

[Ntxw]

Yeah i get it. Super early for a big storm like that, but the air coming down on the op GFS is very cold.

By looking at the GFS Ens and Euro Ens, i dont believe it will play out anyway. Would have been nice though. The GFS from a few days ago is what we want though. Trough diving through the Rockies down to or below Big Bend. Lets hope for more of that.

You've mentioned but yeah, I'm interested as in the cause of it all vs the end result. It's only October for sure.

We really need the East Pacific to come through this winter. We need the Nina to behave more like a Nina then the quasi Nino or quasi Nina hybrids we have seen since 2015. It seems the best patterns comes when the tropical Pacific is polar opposite of the Northeast Pacific. (Big EPO warm pool, cool Nina; Cold pool EPO and warm Nino).

We've consistently trended dry for months now. To me it signals the regimes changed. Changing regimes tends to feature interesting weather.

Quasi-Nina 2016 - North Pacific was terrible



2017 had a better looking Nina but the EPO waters were very cold.




So far right now...let's hope we can keep this look to load North America with some cold air with big ridges over the NPO.

[starsfan65]

Next week still remains a mystery!!!