WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

99W.INVEST

I checked my plots but I can't find any trackable low that originates from this area around this date, could this be the Marianas system the models have been inconsistently showing?

99W.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.11N.163E

[Hayabusa]

I'm still not sure if this is the one, but looking at 18Z GFS from tidbits there's a low label around that area

So anyway, 18Z happy hour plot

[euro6208]

Looks like this is the system the EURO and GFS starts developing by Sunday/Monday.

[euro6208]

99W.INVEST

could this be the Marianas system the models have been inconsistently showing?

I don't think so. The models are consistently showing the first week of November as the prime date for a significant Marianas typhoon.

[Hayabusa]

99W.INVEST

could this be the Marianas system the models have been inconsistently showing?

I don't think so. The models are consistently showing the first week of November as the prime date for a significant Marianas typhoon.

What I mean is that a TC just developing around the Marianas.

[Hayabusa]

GEFS uptick...

[mrbagyo]

[ElectricStorm]

If 99W can get going, I think it can get pretty dangerous considering the amount of untapped fuel out in front of it.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS makes this a significant long-tracker that hits the Marianas as a TS before bottoming out as a 962mb typhoon before it recurves.

[Hayabusa]

Back in 19/12Z, 99W was probably the one ECMWF developing peaking at the end of the run as 960 mb but now it's quiet (including UKMET). Only GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, JMA, ICON, and ACCESS develop this, huh but that's like a majority of the models developing it...
but anyway GEFS still excited

[aspen]

The GFS has been very consistent with development. The 18z run shows a named TS in only 72-96 hours, and while it heads NW at first, its track later flattens out to almost due W. It’s gonna have a lot of time over 29-30C SSTs and is the best contender for a long-tracking beast since Haishen.

[Hayabusa]

The GFS has been very consistent with development. The 18z run shows a named TS in only 72-96 hours, and while it heads NW at first, its track later flattens out to almost due W. It’s gonna have a lot of time over 29-30C SSTs and is the best contender for a long-tracking beast since Haishen.

That forced westward bend in 18Z kind of reminds me of Yutu, wait that's more like Megi

[euro6208]

Possible TS from Guam and the Northern Marianas.

[euro6208]

This system will impact
the region through Tuesday with increased wind speeds and
showers. The ECMWF still has a better handle on this system
compared to the GFS. However, the ECMWF is now trending towards a
slightly stronger system than the past few runs. Primarily the
ECMWF is now showing an increase in wind speeds, reaching around
15 kts on Monday and Tuesday. Unlike the GFS, the ECMWF keeps the
system unorganized while it is in the Marianas.

[Hayabusa]

Truly a happy hour run with 3 (possibly 4) storms going to the Philippines

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS makes this a major long-tracker that ends up grazing northern Luzon. Peaks at 951mb.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZOCT2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230151ZOCT2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N
156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230251Z ASMR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK,
INDISTINCT CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION. A 232335Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. INVEST 99W IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) BUT DECREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

ECMWF is still quiet with this, it's there but just a tropical wave.

[Hayabusa]

99W INVEST 201023 0600 7.1N 154.6E WPAC 20 1008

[Hayabusa]