Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[SFLcane]

[Nuno]

We may find that this system actually pulls moisture away from Florida as we will be in the dry side. That would be some good news with the ton of rainfall we have received this month.

Maybe if it's organized enough, but if it's a disorganized slop SFL would get plenty of rain like in the UKMET run Larry posted.

[SFLcane]

10-30% 8am

[cycloneye]

Let's see if NHC tags a invest soon to this area and then finnally I can lock this record thread.

[underthwx]

Looks like after all this time, this low may be starting to get better organized. Something to continue to watch.

[boca]

We may find that this system actually pulls moisture away from Florida as we will be in the dry side. That would be some good news with the ton of rainfall we have received this month.

Maybe if it's organized enough, but if it's a disorganized slop SFL would get plenty of rain like in the UKMET run Larry posted.

I think that this would scoot NE and miss us to the SE thru the central Bahamas

[underthwx]

Let's see if NHC tags a invest soon to this area and then finnally I can lock this record thread.

What are the criteria that have to be met... to tag an area of disturbed weather, an invest?

[cycloneye]

Let's see if NHC tags a invest soon to this area and then finnally I can lock this record thread.

What are the criteria that have to be met... to tag an area of disturbed weather, an invest?

Here is how they do it.

An invest is simply short for "investigative area." It’s also known as an area of interest. It is a designated area of disturbed weather that is being monitored for potential tropical cyclone development.

Once the National Hurricane Center declares an investigative area, spaghetti models are run on the system to project the future track possibilities.

Invests are numbered from 90 to 99, followed by a suffix letter "L" in the North Atlantic basin, "E" and "C" in the Eastern and Central Pacific basins (respectively), or "W" in the Western Pacific basin.

Numbers are rotated within the season and are re-used as necessary (the next invest after 99 would be numbered 90).

This naming system gives forecasters a way of identifying the individual weather systems and the important information related to it. Also, when there multiple tropical disturbances, it is easier for meteorologists to communicate what invest they are talking about.

The designation of a system as an invest does not necessarily correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone.

[underthwx]

Let's see if NHC tags a invest soon to this area and then finnally I can lock this record thread.

What are the criteria that have to be met... to tag an area of disturbed weather, an invest?

Here is how they do it.

An invest is simply short for "investigative area." It’s also known as an area of interest. It is a designated area of disturbed weather that is being monitored for potential tropical cyclone development.

Once the National Hurricane Center declares an investigative area, spaghetti models are run on the system to project the future track possibilities.

Invests are numbered from 90 to 99, followed by a suffix letter "L" in the North Atlantic basin, "E" and "C" in the Eastern and Central Pacific basins (respectively), or "W" in the Western Pacific basin.

Numbers are rotated within the season and are re-used as necessary (the next invest after 99 would be numbered 90).

This naming system gives forecasters a way of identifying the individual weather systems and the important information related to it. Also, when there multiple tropical disturbances, it is easier for meteorologists to communicate what invest they are talking about.

The designation of a system as an invest does not necessarily correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone.

Thankyou for your reply CE.....

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

A trough of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
which primarily extend near Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the next
few days while it moves northeastward near western or central Cuba,
the Straits of Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas through early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[LarryWx]

After having a TC on the prior three runs, the 12Z UKMET has no TC . But it does have a weak low crossing S FL leading to a couple of inches of rain there:


[img]

Also, the 12Z Euro has a weak low over S FL:



12Z Euro rainfall:

[ronjon]

Picking up an interesting twist on some of the models today. Looks like the Euro, UKMET, and ICON want to take a weak low into SW or S FL and then shunt it N-NW up into the eastern GOM. None of them make it very strong but interesting track possibilities if if were to get stronger than forecast.

[NDG]

I would keep an eye on this disturbance in the Caribbean, if if doesn't get picked up by the shortwave trough to move across over FL over the weekend it could stay down there in the NW Caribbean, SE GOM underneath an anticyclone and warm waters as a mid level ridge builds over FL early next week, "could" become a significant tropical system if it stays down there through early-mid next week. At least more rains for the FL Peninsula is what is in store.

[northjaxpro]

I would keep an eye on this disturbance in the Caribbean, if if doesn't get picked up by the shortwave trough to move across over FL over the weekend it could stay down there in the NW Caribbean, SE GOM underneath an anticyclone and warm waters as a mid level ridge builds over FL early next week, "could" become a significant tropical system if it stays down there through early-mid next week. At least more rains for the FL Peninsula is what is in store.

Astute observation NDG. The shortwave forecast to pickup this potential Western Caribbean system this weekend will be interesting. You are right. If that shortwave fails to pick this system up, then all bets are off!

[northjaxpro]

Nice anticyclone has formed over the Western Caribbean




The set-up is there for this system to potentially develop, as it will have an anticyclone, which will follow it in tandum. Sufficient 850 mb vorticity analyzed just off the coast of the lower Yucatan Peninsula currently. We will see if something will FINALLY attempt to spin-up across the Northwest Caribbean as we move on toward this weekend. I will also point out that there is what appears on IR satellite imagery some decent energy pulling northward from the West Central Carribean, which may combine with vorticity moving away from the Yucatan over this upcoming weekend. This may help to spark cyclogenesis either across Western Cuba, or over the Florida Straits later into the weekend.

[ClarCari]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1315618272180609024




And right on que 10 days later theres quite a bit of convection firing in the Caribbean.

I figured the models that predicted genesis way earlier were either sniffing a phantom or overestimated how soon favorable activity would return to the area.

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

A trough of low pressure, located over the western Caribbean Sea,
is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
which extends near Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, portions of Cuba,
and the Windward Passage. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it moves northeastward near
western or central Cuba, the Straits of Florida and the central
Bahamas through the weekend. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Cuba, South Florida, and
the Bahamas through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[ronjon]

So far only ICON really develops it. 1002 mb low into SE GOM in 5 days.

[LarryWx]

So far only ICON really develops it. 1002 mb low into SE GOM in 5 days.

Keep in mind that the ICON is not a good model as it is biased toward genesis. I'm betting heavily against the ICON.

[SFLcane]

intriguing satellite view tonight across the nw Caribbean Sea.