ATL: EPSILON - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34001
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#381 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:50 pm

ClarCari wrote:Even if it’s peaking rn, this is still one of the top most impressive storms in the sub-tropics this time of the year. Sure Ophelia 2017 was farther NE, but Epsilon is later in the year and has a lower pressure than Ophelia’s peak!


Ophelia lacked Recon though so who knows what it really had.
4 likes   
Top
User avatar
gfsperpendicular
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 383
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:04 pm
Location: Northern Virginia

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#382 Postby gfsperpendicular » Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:51 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:One wild card: could it take on an annular-like appearance and hold up better in the near future?


NHC reading this comment:
Image
28 likes   
I'm not sleeping, I'm waiting for the 0900 UTC advisory!

#1 CMC stan
Top
plasticup

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#383 Postby plasticup » Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:56 am

Aint nothing annular about this storm.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9279
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#384 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:35 am

Weather Dude wrote:Storms like this are the reason I track storms... What a storm

Yes, Epsilon is just a stunner, but Epsilon lost it's eye.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9279
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#385 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:45 am

Epsilon is trying to get it's eye back.

Image
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9279
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#386 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:47 am

Epsilon now at 100 mph
This is from the NHC:
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT EPSILON HAS
DROPPED IN INTENSITY...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 61.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...385 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8812
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#387 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:56 am

Oh wow, Epsilon really fell hard overnight. Recon suggests a 100 mph Cat 2 is being VERY generous.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
JRD
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 66
Age: 21
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:23 am
Location: Allentown, PA

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#388 Postby JRD » Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:46 am

Moreover, it's going to begin extratropical transition soon.
Image
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9279
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#389 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:54 am

aspen wrote:Oh wow, Epsilon really fell hard overnight. Recon suggests a 100 mph Cat 2 is being VERY generous.

No, they found consistant 85 knot winds at best.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9279
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#390 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:49 am

Epsilon is now having a full eye again.

Image
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:
Contact EquusStorm

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#391 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:26 am

Lil' secondary peak time

Image
2 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8812
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#392 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:30 am

We still have quite a while until recon arrives and determines whether or not Epsilon is trying to briefly restrengthen.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9279
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#393 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:32 am

Epsilon is now having a full eye again.

Image
Last edited by Iceresistance on Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:
Contact EquusStorm

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#394 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:32 am

Highly impressed it's even still able to try in an environment with low OHC, massive swath of dry air impinging, and increasing shear to be honest. What a storm
2 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Top
us89
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 399
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:12 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#395 Postby us89 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:48 am

This is probably my favorite storm of the year. Great looking on satellite, RI'd far beyond what it was expected to, and not threatening land (other than whatever brushes Bermuda). And we have recon for it.
2 likes   
Top
JRD
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 66
Age: 21
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:23 am
Location: Allentown, PA

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#396 Postby JRD » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:50 am

Intensification may be due to baroclinic processes. If that's indeed the case, then it could be related to the start of extratropical transition.
Last edited by JRD on Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:56 am, edited 2 times in total.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:
Contact EquusStorm

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#397 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:51 am

Yeah I'm totally not going to get used to this being 27L, holy crap what a prolific season this has been
3 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9279
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#398 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:13 am

NHC saying 90 mph & 965 MB, but they are saying that Epsilon may have reversed the weakening trend. Here is the long term forecast
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 30.9N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 31.9N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 33.4N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 35.1N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 36.9N 60.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 39.6N 57.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 43.0N 50.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 52.5N 30.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROPICAL
120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5017
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#399 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:14 am

This looks a lot stronger than a Cat 1 on IR. Maybe making another run?
2 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8812
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#400 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:18 pm

Why is recon so far north of Epsilon? They’re at 36N while the system is down at like 32N.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests