2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[ElectricStorm]

Petition to stop running the GFS to anything past 240 hours... Went from a Cat 1 in the Bahamas at 0z, to nearly making landfall in SA at 12z

[aspen]

Petition to stop running the GFS to anything past 240 hours... Went from a Cat 1 in the Bahamas at 0z, to nearly making landfall in SA at 12z

That giant mess of a precursor is there on Halloween and starts developing a little before 240 hours. The time frame is continuing to move up...let’s see if that continues for the next 5 days.

[ElectricStorm]

12z GFS thinks it's 1932 again... But hey, at least it's entertaining!

[Spacecoast]

12z GFS thinks it's 1932 again... But hey, at least it's entertaining!

Hmmm.
A Cat 4 into the Caribbean from an African wave in November would be......

I'll just say unusual.

[aspen]

12z ICON has that upcoming wave a little further north than the CMC, and it develops into a weak TC in the far SW Caribbean in 7-8 days.

[kevin]

12z GFS now has storm formation from the African tropical wave at +234 hours with a hurricane around 280 hours. This feels very similar to one particular late season storm in 1932. If this was any other model and any other year than I might be concerned, but considering the recent GFS performance and model performance as a whole this year, I think it's okay not to worry about it that much right now. But it's definitely something to check every once in a while for the coming days. Especially now that it's at ~240 hours so it could also start to appear on other models like cmc and the euro.

[gatorcane]

Saved GFS loop:

I actually have a feeling November may produce a significant hurricane somewhere in the Caribbean.

[aspen]

12z GFS now has storm formation from the African tropical wave at +234 hours with a hurricane around 280 hours. This feels very similar to one particular late season storm in 1932. If this was any other model and any other year than I might be concerned, but considering the recent GFS performance and model performance as a whole this year, I think it's okay not to worry about it that much right now. But it's definitely something to check every once in a while for the coming days. Especially now that it's at ~240 hours so it could also start to appear on other models like cmc and the euro.

https://i.imgur.com/45YH2fW.png

On the subject of the 1932 Cuba hurricane, does anyone know how much ACE it generated?

[kevin]

12z GFS now has storm formation from the African tropical wave at +234 hours with a hurricane around 280 hours. This feels very similar to one particular late season storm in 1932. If this was any other model and any other year than I might be concerned, but considering the recent GFS performance and model performance as a whole this year, I think it's okay not to worry about it that much right now. But it's definitely something to check every once in a while for the coming days. Especially now that it's at ~240 hours so it could also start to appear on other models like cmc and the euro.

https://i.imgur.com/45YH2fW.png

On the subject of the 1932 Cuba hurricane, does anyone know how much ACE it generated?

59.8 according to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy).

[LarryWx]

Folks,
This may not be a phantom as even the often shy King's 0Z ensemble had ~15% of 51 members with genesis. Folks like especially Luis and others living on the GAs, the Bahamas, and Bermuda should keep an extra close on eye on this:

[ElectricStorm]

Folks,
This may not be a phantom as even the often shy King's 0Z ensemble had ~15% of 51 members with genesis. Folks like especially Luis and others living on the GAs, the Bahamas, and Bermuda should keep an extra close on eye on this:

https://i.imgur.com/pLL9ihC.png

Honestly I'm not taking it too seriously right now, but if the other models join in on development, and the time of development keeps moving forward on each run, it could become a much bigger deal. This one actually has a trackable source unlike the Caribbean storm the GFS tried to spin up last week. Something to watch for sure, especially since early November is supposed to be favorable

[Spacecoast]

Folks,
This may not be a phantom as even the often shy King's 0Z ensemble had ~15% of 51 members with genesis. Folks like especially Luis and others living on the GAs, the Bahamas, and Bermuda should keep an extra close on eye on this:

https://i.imgur.com/pLL9ihC.png

I'm not sure it is correct to say that the ECMF 0z ensemble is predicting cyclogenesis probability @15% 10 days out.
idk, I could be wrong about that. Even so, wouldn't that also mean that ECMF is saying there is an 85% chance of no genesis?

Defining Tropical Cyclogenesis:
When system exceeds threshold values for:
– 850 hPa Relative Vorticity
– 200–850 hPa Thickness
– Closed MSLP contour (min + 1hPa)

btw, Larry do these ensemble plots ever show the 'white' circle (Ens mean)?I've seen the green circle (operational) occasionally, but the white circle remains elusive.

[LarryWx]

Folks,
This may not be a phantom as even the often shy King's 0Z ensemble had ~15% of 51 members with genesis. Folks like especially Luis and others living on the GAs, the Bahamas, and Bermuda should keep an extra close on eye on this:

https://i.imgur.com/pLL9ihC.png

I'm not sure it is correct to say that the ECMF 0z ensemble is predicting cyclogenesis probability @15% 10 days out.
idk, I could be wrong about that. Even so, wouldn't that also mean that ECMF is saying there is an 85% chance of no genesis?

Defining Tropical Cyclogenesis:
When system exceeds threshold values for:
– 850 hPa Relative Vorticity
– 200–850 hPa Thickness
– Closed MSLP contour (min + 1hPa)

btw, Larry do these ensemble plots ever show the 'white' circle (Ens mean)?I've seen the green circle (operational) occasionally, but the white circle remains elusive.

I'm not saying the Euro ens is predicting cyclogenesis since only 15% are doing just that. But for the often genesis shy EPS, 15% is notable and means it is quite possible. 15% to the EPS is probably equivelant to something like 75% on the genesis happy GEFS.

Yes, if there are enough surface lows and they're largely near each other. the white circle (yes, the mean) may be shown But what often happens is that they're spread out just enough to keep the mean from getting lower than 1004 mb.

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS has some activity in the W Car though for it it isn't extremely active:

[Spacecoast]

Folks,
This may not be a phantom as even the often shy King's 0Z ensemble had ~15% of 51 members with genesis. Folks like especially Luis and others living on the GAs, the Bahamas, and Bermuda should keep an extra close on eye on this:

https://i.imgur.com/pLL9ihC.png

I'm not sure it is correct to say that the ECMF 0z ensemble is predicting cyclogenesis probability @15% 10 days out.
idk, I could be wrong about that. Even so, wouldn't that also mean that ECMF is saying there is an 85% chance of no genesis?

Defining Tropical Cyclogenesis:
When system exceeds threshold values for:
– 850 hPa Relative Vorticity
– 200–850 hPa Thickness
– Closed MSLP contour (min + 1hPa)

btw, Larry do these ensemble plots ever show the 'white' circle (Ens mean)?I've seen the green circle (operational) occasionally, but the white circle remains elusive.

I'm not saying the Euro ens is predicting cyclogenesis since only 15% are doing just that. But for the often genesis shy EPS, 15% is notable and means it is quite possible. 15% to the EPS is probably equivelant to something like 75% on the genesis happy GEFS.

Yes, if there are enough surface lows and they're largely near each other. the white circle (yes, the mean) may be shown But what often happens is that they're spread out just enough to keep the mean from getting lower than 1004 mb.

Thanks Larry. Yes it is notable, and having a number greater than zero gets my attention a little.
I'm always curious about how far away from the ensemble mean these members are, keeping in mind that they may be extreme outliers in terms of location,and intensity.

[AutoPenalti]

12Z GEFS has some activity in the W Car though for it it isn't extremely active:

https://i.imgur.com/rrtePP6.png

That's a pretty active signal for it to be this far out quite honestly.

[ElectricStorm]

Happy hour is pretty happy today lol

[aspen]

Happy hour is pretty happy today lol

A Cat 4 landfall in Nicaragua is quite a lot, but it’s not the craziest Happy Hour we’ve seen. I was half expecting it to bomb this out to <915 mbar.

[Spacecoast]

One of those bright orange spheres depicts a Cat3 into Tampa....

[SFLcane]

Gfs and para sure are excited about some more development in the Caribbean. Then again we can see how the modeled major hurricane turned out in the western Caribbean.