Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[LarryWx]

intriguing satellite view tonight across the nw Caribbean Sea.

https://i.postimg.cc/3J1Nj5pt/11-BC96-EC-00-D4-43-D5-9-B27-ABAC3013-DA59.jpg

This convection has been modeled well.

[plasticup]

Let's see if NHC tags a invest soon to this area and then finnally I can lock this record thread.

Not a chance! I predict another 40 pages of breathless posting.

[Weatherboy1]

There were so many doubters on this area of potential development ... which I understand on some level given how long it take to come together. But tonight? Looks like a solid Invest to me.

[ronjon]

With convection building under an anticyclone, an invest seems likely now.

[SFLcane]

With convection building under an anticyclone, an invest seems likely now.

[boca]

Looks like it’s drifting slowly west.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS doesn't develop this...again. I still think we could get something from this. Looks like it's just about invest time down there.

[LarryWx]

There were so many doubters on this area of potential development ... which I understand on some level given how long it take to come together. But tonight? Looks like a solid Invest to me.

It is doing about what all models have shown to this point. It is a weak surface low with attendant decent amount of convection. Nothing notable that most models didn’t predict.

[ClarCari]

Convection is building right on top of that low-level center. While convection tends to fluctuate in developing systems, if it can remain consistent enough, we could see something spinning down sooner rather than later..

[AutoPenalti]

DMAX should do the trick.

[ClarCari]

Unless this convection just goes poof, I see no way this isn't an Invest by morning. IDK if chances will change much if any for the 2AM TWO. NHC may want to see more consistency so they don't get burned on this one again lol

[Jr0d]

It almost looks like there is some outflow happening with it. Now the GFS dropped it, the chances of something forming have increased.

I feel bad contributing to this post, but we may finally have an invest tomorrow and this insane thread can be locked.

[ClarCari]

30/40 now! Should be an Invest pretty soon!

[ElectricStorm]

My man Stewart has done it again
1. A broad trough of low pressure, located over the western Caribbean
Sea, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly
east of the trough. Surface observations, satellite-derived surface
wind data, and radar data indicate that a low pressure system has
developed along the trough axis just south of Grand Cayman Island.
Some gradual development of the low is possible during the next few
days while it moves northwestward to northward across western or
central Cuba on Saturday, then turning northward to northeastward
across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Straits of Florida, and the
central Bahamas on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba,
South Florida, and the Bahamas through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

Pretty significant change to the graphic as well. South Fl. keep an eye on this!

[USTropics]

This is now Invest 95L

Code: Select all

AL, 95, 2020102306,   , BEST,   0, 188N,  813W,  25, 1008, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  150,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 061, SPAWNINVEST, al782020 to al952020,

[ClarCari]

BT has 95L as now official! So thankfully we are sure this thread never went to waste.
Great job everyone!

[storm4u]

No thread for 95L ?

[ClarCari]

No thread for 95L ?

It’s late and cycloneye usually creates the active threads.

[kevin]

Now that we're nearing the end of this thread due to the invest, is this the longest thread there has ever been for a disturbance?

[cycloneye]

No thread for 95L ?

It’s late and cycloneye usually creates the active threads.

Well,I was sleeping and I am not the only one who does those threads. Anyone can do them.