WPAC: MOLAVE - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

Hmm...

HWRF tracks south of the capital in first run.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZOCT2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230151ZOCT2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.3N 136.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY
190 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230115Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO
AN EXPOSED, SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 98W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND VERY WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD WITH ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, BUT INDICATE AN INCREASE IN INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 24 HOURS
WITH A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 230859
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 23/0830Z

C. 9.4N

D. 133.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. >2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE AND EQUAL
1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[dexterlabio]

I have no idea how to come up with DT number but does the current IR presentation really warrant a DT of only 1.0? IMO it looks more organized than some TDs we have seen so far this year.

[euro6208]

I have no idea how to come up with DT number but does the current IR presentation really warrant a DT of only 1.0? IMO it looks more organized than some TDs we have seen so far this year.

There were many Atlantic systems that were upgraded to a TS with only 1.0 or 1.5 but they had recon like 2020.

[euro6208]

This is probrably a mid grade TS right now with that kind of improving banding but dvorak cannot handle small systems like this and this is an incredibly small system.

[NotoSans]

ASCAT-A pass finds an elongated but closed circulation with isolated 25kt wind barbs under the convection, but this storm will spin up soon.

[euro6208]

ASCAT-A pass finds an elongated but closed circulation with isolated 25kt wind barbs under the convection, but this storm will spin up soon.

ASCAT does have a documented low bias when wind speeds are high especially higher than 40 knots. NHC doesn't mention them when a system had recon.

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 231513
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 23/1430Z

C. 11.3N

D. 132.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 4.5/10 BANDING FOR A DT=2.5. MET=1.5. PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET
SINCE CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR-CUT OWING TO UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE
LOCATION OF THE LLCC.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[Hayabusa]

STS landfall

TD
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 23 October 2020

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 23 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N11°20' (11.3°)
E132°30' (132.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 24 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°20' (13.3°)
E128°55' (128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 25 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°35' (13.6°)
E124°10' (124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 26 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°40' (13.7°)
E119°05' (119.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 430 km (230 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 27 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°20' (14.3°)
E113°50' (113.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 600 km (325 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 28 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°50' (14.8°)
E109°30' (109.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 700 km (390 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 800 km (440 NM)

[Hayabusa]

TCFA since 14Z

WTPN21 PGTW 231400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2N 133.2E TO 13.4N 128.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 132.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.7N 134.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 132.9E, APPROXIMATELY
261 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231221Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT BUILDING CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WHICH IS CLEARLY DEFINED IN A 231130Z ASCAT PASS.
98W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
GOOD WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241400Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

UKMET still likes to track around the capital region.

[Hayabusa]

Interesting that GFS develops another storm from the "leftover" of this TC.

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

21W TWENTYONE 201024 0000 12.5N 131.2E WPAC 30 1000

[Hayabusa]

WDPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
NORTHWEST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS WELL DEFINED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE PGTW
FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30
KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL-T
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD OF T1.5, BASED ON OVERALL STRUCTURE OF
THE BANDING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING MODERATELY
FAVORABLE SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH IMPROVING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND LOW 5-10 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE FAVORABLE. TD 21W
IS TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 21W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING AS IT TRACKS
WESTWARD AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST, REACHING 60 KNOTS PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN PHILIPPINES NEAR TAU 36. SLIGHT
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS OVER THE ARCHIPELAGO,
BEFORE RE-EMERGING IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WHERE RE-INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU 72. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE
AFTERWARDS AS SOME MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE STR. THE FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL CONSENSUS GIVEN CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE IS LIMITED GUIDANCE FOR THE
INITIAL FORECAST, LENDING LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE AS SOME
MEMBERS MORE AGGRESSIVELY WEAKEN THE STR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND, WHICH MAINTAINS THE STR,
WITH WESTWARD TO WEST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE FORECAST INTENSITY
IS MAINTAINED GIVEN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE SCS, UNTIL
LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM, WHICH OCCURS JUST PRIOR TO TAU 120.
GIVEN THE LIMITED FIRST WARNING GUIDANCE AND INCREASING MODEL
SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.//
NNNN

[NotoSans]

Deep convection is still rather fragmented and ASCAT continues to show 25KT wind barbs.

[Hayabusa]

Interesting that GFS develops another storm from the "leftover" of this TC.

Looks like it disappeared in 00Z GFS