ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 95, 2020102306, , BEST, 0, 188N, 813W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 061, SPAWNINVEST, al782020 to al952020,

[northjaxpro]

Looks as if 95L could very well be a significant weather maker for The Keys and South Florida over the next few days. 95L is really beginning to pull together early this morning as convection appears to have fired up near the developing LLC, which appears to be very near Grand Cayman Island at this early hour. Potential fòr more heavy rainfall for Cayman Islands, and Cuba. Also, potential of getting yet another named storm (Zeta), especially as the system reaches the Florida Straits region.
Conditions are decent for development with an anticyclone moving in tandum with 95L and warm ssts across the area off Cuba and over the Florida Straits.

[SFLcane]

Models could very well be asleep at the wheel on this one. Surely looks like a developing tc to me.

[Kingarabian]

HMON/HWRF will be interesting.

[Kingarabian]

Models could very well be asleep at the wheel on this one. Surely looks like a developing tc to me.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3x0PcBPP/FC81-BBFA-4-A4-A-4-D45-BB81-B6-DAD6662-E7-E.jpg[/rl]

I mean this satellite presentation is significantly better than what the models are showing

[northjaxpro]

Models could very well be asleep at the wheel on this one. Surely looks like a developing tc to me.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3x0PcBPP/FC81-BBFA-4-A4-A-4-D45-BB81-B6-DAD6662-E7-E.jpg[/rl]

I mean this satellite presentation is significantly better than what the models are showing

I agree. The system has really pulled together just over the last 8-12 hours. 95L just may be in the process of really ramping up. We have to pay attention to this very carefully. I think the models may be a bit slow with how 95L is coming together quickly.

[SFLcane]

HMON/HWRF will be interesting.

Icon has a 978mb hurricane near tip of Cuba.

[northjaxpro]

HMON/HWRF will be interesting.

Icon has a 978mb hurricane near tip of Cuba.

Yeah, I was just getting ready to mention this. ICON really intensifies it on its approach to Cuba. It also very slowly moves 95L to off the western tip of Cuba over the next couple of days as well.

[SFLcane]

Another fail by the models...

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1319577326141714432

[northjaxpro]

06Z ICON run finishes by intensifying 95L to 970 mb Cat 2 tropical cyclone in 120 hours over the Eastern GOM.

[Kingarabian]

Wow I hope the 06z ICON is not the beginning of a bad trend...

[northjaxpro]

Yes Eric Blake, no doubt the models have been slow to 95L's development , which we referenced earlier.

This thread is about to really explode once the peeps wake up to this development for sure!

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1319582765155835912

[northjaxpro]

I think most of you all I hope have learned a valuable lesson over these past couple of weeks to not fully trust the GFS with tropical cyclone genesis right now. In fact, most of the reliable models have fared poorly recently wirh regards to the Caribbean development up until now. Heck, overall they have generally struggled all season long with tropical cyclone development throughout the N. ATL basin.

I would definitely not downplay the ICON, like some people on this forum does at times. Personally, the ICON in this instance just may be onto something with potential rapid development, given the decent upper level conditions and the warm ssts 95L will be traversing over during the short to medium term.

[SconnieCane]

Another fail by the models...

Well, in fairness we don't have a TC yet...but it's certainly interesting.

[ronjon]

Appears that a piece of energy shears off to the NE in a few days but the main low center stays near western cuba and then slowly drifts off to the NW. While ICON really only develops it strongly, recent GFS now starting to at least weakly develop it and move it eventually up toward the northern gulf coast. Will be watching this one carefully on the west coast of Florida.

[gatorcane]

Certainly looks a bit suspicious down there, models might be in catchup mode on this:

[Blown Away]

Starting to get the look.

[SFLcane]

Wow 50-60!! 8am nhc

[kevin]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic a couple of hundred
miles northeast of Bermuda.

1. A broad area of low pressure located near Grand Cayman Island is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly east and
south of the center. This system has become much better organized
since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form during the
next couple of days while the low moves slowly toward the northwest.
This system is now anticipated to move near western Cuba this
weekend and move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by
early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba,
southern Florida and the Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Blake/Papin