ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#21 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:47 am

Orange shading now towards SE GOM:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#22 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:05 am

Hmm.. a very interesting 06Z run of the HMON. That run certainly is an interesting one for my neighbors down in South Florida. Just one run, but definitely one which warrants attention!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#23 Postby Weatherboy1 » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:10 am

Models may have been off-base on precise timing and/or pace of development. But clearly several runs had the general idea of something “popping” in this part of the Caribbean correct
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#24 Postby shiny-pebble » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:23 am

I did not expect to wake up to this :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#25 Postby chaser1 » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:23 am

Good morning....... (grabbing coffee). "95L" Wait, what????? :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#26 Postby boca » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:27 am

northjaxpro wrote:Hmm.. a very interesting 06Z run of the HMON. That run certainly is an interesting one for my neighbors down in South Florida. Just one run, but definitely one which warrants attention!


Can you please post that run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#27 Postby ronjon » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:29 am

boca wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Hmm.. a very interesting 06Z run of the HMON. That run certainly is an interesting one for my neighbors down in South Florida. Just one run, but definitely one which warrants attention!


Can you please post that run.


Boca its on the 95L models thread.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#28 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:30 am

boca wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Hmm.. a very interesting 06Z run of the HMON. That run certainly is an interesting one for my neighbors down in South Florida. Just one run, but definitely one which warrants attention!


Can you please post that run.


It is already posted on the models thread Boca.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#29 Postby Gums » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:32 am

Salute!

Yeah, chaser, ditto from the PanHandle. Been hoping it would stay loose and head straight west, but.....
Looks like we may be saved by the front that is due in 2 or 3 days, but not looking so good for south FL.
Might be another Irene 99 or even Charley.

Gums sends...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#30 Postby Emmett_Brown » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:44 am

Looks pretty healthy for a ghost
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#31 Postby kevin » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:46 am

Emmett_Brown wrote:Looks pretty healthy for a ghost


It is almost halloween after all.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#32 Postby jconsor » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:48 am

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1319618926175801345




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1319621065807716352


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#33 Postby jconsor » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:49 am

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1319621396964790273


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#34 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:53 am

Looking at satellite, surface reports and radar from Cayman Islands I would the low pressure center is further south and east than its best track position at 8 AM.
Throw the 12z models out the window.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#35 Postby jconsor » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:56 am

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1319623329129635841


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#36 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:57 am

Epsilon was the wildcard with the models, once it weakened, all of the sudden this starts to develop, initially not having a trackable feature.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#37 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:08 am

FINALLY, this is an Invest and we can put that 1,161 post thread out of its misery. Looking pretty good this morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#38 Postby tomatkins » Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:09 am


But it also started it further south. This is consistent with where the GFS thought the development would be at this time before it lost the development. Look at the trend for this verification time. Tropical Tidbits only goes back a week, so its possible that it was different before this though.
https://ibb.co/d4pnBNn
Last edited by tomatkins on Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:13 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#39 Postby TallyTracker » Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:10 am

Wow did not expect to see that coming toward me this morning! :double: Gotta love the way the tropics can throw you a curveball! :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#40 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:10 am

95L has written the FL Panhandle all over it by mid to late next week. Ridge moving over FL early next week will protect S FL, at least from a direct impact. IMO.
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