ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Where ever it goes don’t expect anything too significant.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1319650565220126720

[AutoPenalti]

Where ever it goes don’t expect anything too significant.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1319650565220126720

Shear is set to relax as the anti-cyclone moves in tandem with 95L, not sure how much I buy this.

[FireRat]

Where ever it goes don’t expect anything too significant.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1319650565220126720

Perhaps if this system heads more north and west towards the upper Gulf coast, where shear would likely affect it. Way too soon to make these assumptions however, this storm would be better off if it stays on the eastern side (heading north and northeast into SW Florida or the straits instead of NW north of 27-28 degrees north).

Given the current organizational trends, we could have a hurricane by Sunday IMO.

[ronjon]

Huge anticyclone over top:

https://i.postimg.cc/TwSLgbq3/wg8shr.gif

For now, but look what awaits it if and when it begins to lift north. Probably why the GFS dropped development days ago.

Most models now meander the system for 3 days just south of Cuba - don't see UL winds hindering it anytime soon.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/simonstormrider/status/1319664100813774848

[cycloneye]

FINALLY, this is an Invest and we can put that 1,161 post thread out of its misery. Looking pretty good this morning.

Will it reach 392 pages to surpass the Laura one? Depends on how the disturbance behaves and tracks.What I mean is if it tracks thru Cuba and the Bahamas and then to the Western Atlantic no, but if it moves to the Fla straits or SE GOM and turns into a bonifide cyclone, then things will turn very active.

[ElectricStorm]

Starting to get a little bit concerned about this one, especially if that anticyclone tracks with it, which I think it's supposed to...

[SouthFLTropics]

Just looking at satellite, I think this thing is going to set up shop a little bit south and east of where the models are showing. Have they tasked any recon yet for this, because we really need to see what's going on down there?

[Aric Dunn]

Couple more hours of images added..

trying to develop a proto curved inflow band. MLC to the south appears to be weakening as convection with the LLC is deepening.

coming along pretty good.

[SouthFLTropics]

Aric, would you say that is the LLC trying to get established right there around Grand Cayman?

[SFLcane]

Just looking at satellite, I think this thing is going to set up shop a little bit south and east of where the models are showing. Have they tasked any recon yet for this, because we really need to see what's going on down there?

Yep HH set to fly Saturday.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, would you say that is the LLC trying to get established right there around Grand Cayman?

Sure is..

[cycloneye]

Just looking at satellite, I think this thing is going to set up shop a little bit south and east of where the models are showing. Have they tasked any recon yet for this, because we really need to see what's going on down there?

First mission departs at 11 AM EDT on Saturday morning. Check the 95L recon thread to follow the missions.

[tolakram]

Live visible floater: https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis/meso1_60.html

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1319682166637342726

[Aric Dunn]

Given the current orginizational trends today. I am leaning towards the 12z HMON and 6z Para. could see a quick spin up to TS which would allow the first trough to pull it north or NE for a little bit before being left behind and then moving back west or wnw into the SE Gulf.

[TheStormExpert]

Still a broad mess. I’m very bearish that much of anything will come from this other than a rainmaker. Hopefully it’ll just bury itself into Mexico as opposed to coming towards Florida.

[Sanibel]

I don't know why people were writing this off...It was obviously developing days ago if conditions supported it...

Could become a problem if it hits lucky conditions...

[gatorcane]

It is clear why the HWRF and HMON bring this north and NE over Cuba and South Florida / FL Straits looking at the steering flow here:

[Sanibel]

Hmm, lacks juice and there's a heck of a lot of shear to its north...

We'll see...