ATL: ZETA - Models

[cp79]

Looking like either a Michael, Sally or Delta track from what I’m seeing. Most of Fla looking in better shape while eyes on the northern gulf coast again. How much more can they take?

Considering the recent takes from many on here that no storm is forming & the season is done. I wouldn’t make statements like this for this storm. Mother Nature does what she wants too.
All of FL needs to watch this.

Yeah models have switched a little more East. Last night was looking better for Fla. Today not so much. It’s also looking impressive on satellite.

[TheStormExpert]

NHC now saying 70-70% chance for 95L. This might be Zeta, tying the named systems in 2005. I would be absolutly crazy if we reach 30 named systems.

Actually 2005 had 1 more, an unnamed system classified in post analysis. So we would have to get to Eta to tie, which I think we will easily

I think there’s a good chance we get through Iota putting us at 30 named storms. That’s assuming November can produce a storm or two and one maybe in December.

[TheStormExpert]

12Z NAVGEM with landfall just west of the big bend moving NE:

https://i.postimg.cc/HnThb1Vk/nvg10-sfc10m-120-go-mex.gif

NAVGEM has a left bias too correct?

[TheStormExpert]

I know it’s a horrible model but the 12z ICON has potential-Zeta making landfall near Destin, FL midday next Wednesday as a 974mb hurricane.

[Spacecoast]

12z ECMF Ens tracks


12z GEFS Ens tracks

[TheStormExpert]

18z Model Guidance. Talk about no consensus.

[TheProfessor]

12Z NAVGEM with landfall just west of the big bend moving NE:

https://i.postimg.cc/HnThb1Vk/nvg10-sfc10m-120-go-mex.gif

NAVGEM has a left bias too correct?

NAVGEM historically has a right bias, however I have seen it quite a bit left of other models this year so perhaps an update changed it.

[Iceresistance]

I know it’s a horrible model but the 12z ICON has potential-Zeta making landfall near Destin, FL midday next Wednesday as a 974mb hurricane.

It sucessfully predicted Hurricane Sally's rapid deepening from 60 mph to 90 mph in 2 hours tho.

[Iceresistance]

12z ECMF Ens tracks
https://i.ibb.co/khsKfTN/Capture10024b.jpg

12z GEFS Ens tracks
https://i.ibb.co/h1Gyhcv/Capture10024c.jpg

Troical Storm at best according to the two models.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z ICON continues to develop it and take it into the GOM.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS is running... Cheers!!!

[TheStormExpert]

But do we believe that it’ll sit and spin in the NW Caribbean for three days? The NHC expects 95L to move north and east towards the FL peninsula early-mid week.

[SouthFLTropics]

:uarrow: But do we believe that it’ll sit and spin in the NW Caribbean for three days? The NHC expects 95L to move north and east towards the FL peninsula early-mid week.

Yeah, I don't buy that from ICON one bit. I also don't think that any of the models are initializing this correctly. It is obviously more organized currently than what is being modeled.

[Iceresistance]

Satellite imagery of 95L & Epsilon, 95L looking better but still disorganized & Epsilon is starting to become a non-tropical cyclone. 95L is to the bottom left, Epsilon is to the top right.
8 PM update: Epsilon is almost off the screen, as soon as Epsilon is off the Caribbean sea GOES-16 GEOCOLOR, it's time to focus on future Zeta or TD 28.

[SouthFLTropics]

Through 15 hours, HMON is east of 12z by about a degree in longitude.

[SFLcane]

Through 15 hours, HMON is east of 12z by about a degree in longitude.

So far appears to have dropped development with 95L

[Jr0d]

Looking like either a Michael, Sally or Delta track from what I’m seeing. Most of Fla looking in better shape while eyes on the northern gulf coast again. How much more can they take?

Considering the recent takes from many on here that no storm is forming & the season is done. I wouldn’t make statements like this for this storm. Mother Nature does what she wants too.
All of FL needs to watch this.

Yeah models have switched a little more East. Last night was looking better for Fla. Today not so much. It’s also looking impressive on satellite.

That says a lot coming from you...you are one of the few posters who does not 'wishcast' landfalls, in my opinion.

That said, if it does impact Florida and the Keys, flooding will be the primary threat. I would be very surprised 8f it becomes more than a tropical storm.

[SouthFLTropics]

It didn't drop it...It's just weaker.

EDIT: At 30 hours it starts to become more organized and is headed North.

[SFLcane]

Spoke to soon rapidly intensifying now down to 996mb

[SFLcane]

989mb hurricane about to cross Cuba.