WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

I thought they only begin doing HWRF runs when a system is at "medium"?

[mrbagyo]

99W INVEST 201023 1200 7.9N 154.0E WPAC 20 1008
I can't see any sign of rotation

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

12Z ECMWF still quiet, although there are some ensembles showing development, while GFS develops it to a strong typhoon and tracks it towards the Philippines.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 156.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 153.2E, APPROXIMATELY 79NM
EAST OF FANANU, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
230251Z ASMR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK, INDISTINCT CIRCULATION WITH
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION. A 232335Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. INVEST 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS)
BUT DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W
WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

00Z GFS 120 hr, more south and now on the Philippine Sea seems tracking towards the Philippines.
UKMET is still quiet too.

[Hayabusa]

I like the wording used here

ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZOCT2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZOCT2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240152ZOCT2020//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.3N 153.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 153.2E, APPROXIMATELY 79NM
EAST OF FANANU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
240334Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT SCATTERED BLOOMS OF
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
232201Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS A VERY CONFUSED, WEAK WIND FIELD,
DOMINATED BY 5 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. INVEST 99W IS IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EASTWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY
UNFAVORABLE (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH
MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE TURNING ONTO
A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[underthwx]

99W INVEST 201023 1200 7.9N 154.0E WPAC 20 1008
I can't see any sign of rotation
https://i.imgur.com/aTet9O3.gif

I might see some rotation perhaps, just to the left of the center of the satellite image?

[underthwx]

I like the wording used here

ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZOCT2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZOCT2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240152ZOCT2020//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.3N 153.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 153.2E, APPROXIMATELY 79NM
EAST OF FANANU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
240334Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT SCATTERED BLOOMS OF
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
232201Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS A VERY CONFUSED, WEAK WIND FIELD,
DOMINATED BY 5 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. INVEST 99W IS IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EASTWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY
UNFAVORABLE (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH
MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE TURNING ONTO
A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

"Very confused?".....thats a new term to me, for a tropical disturbance

[Hayabusa]

It's kind of back in the ECMWF, but keeps it weak and it doesn't try to intensify it until much later in the taus, looks likes this is a model battle GFS vs ECMWF on genesis.

[Hayabusa]

Ensembles are weak through 5 days

While strong on this one

[dexterlabio]

It's kind of back in the ECMWF, but keeps it weak and it doesn't try to intensify it until much later in the taus, looks likes this is a model battle GFS vs ECMWF on genesis.

In this model war I will side with who caught on Saudel and 21W's genesis first.

[euro6208]

Earlier prognostics said there were 15-25 knots wind shear but decreasing and now it's up to 25-30 knots? Poor invest.

[Hayabusa]

ECMWF 12Z more stronger than 00Z but only intensifies to a TS when it gets forced to a WSW track towards the Philippines at landfall.
GFS 12Z weaker than previous runs but still a typhoon.

[Hayabusa]

GFS 00Z even weaker (like ECMWF 12Z), it doesn't do much until it nears landfall as a TS after being forced to a WSW track then intensifies it over the SCS

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.3N 153.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 149.9E, APPROXIMATELY 383
NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED TO THE EAST. A 241043Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS TIGHT
TROUGHING WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE. 99W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
EASTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW (10 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH ECMWF AND UKMET TRACKING
99W GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, GFS AND NAVGEM SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

00z EURO stronger. 990 mb Philippines.

[euro6208]

While EURO went stronger, GFS trended weaker. Past 2 runs only strengthens this to 1003 mb before landfall.

[Hayabusa]

ECMWF 12Z has it 958 mb landfall from HRES