ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

There it is. Broad low.

[psyclone]

Very disorganized today. Maybe a TD tomorrow. I have a TS passing NE Caribbean Monday night and landfall west of Pensacola 50-55 kts Wednesday night.

WPC's current output concurs with a stripe of QPF between Mobile bay and Panama city. Southeast Florida remains wet with that persistent onshore flow. West coast and I-4 corridor gets totally shut out.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1603564315

[cycloneye]

Now we will see if there are plenty of west winds. So far NW, WNW and a 284 west one found.

[chaser1]

There it is. Broad low.

https://i.imgur.com/MfN6okf.png

Well, that may be "one LLC" but I sure would like to see the area around 17.5N & 82.5W sampled

[Blown Away]

There it is. Broad low.

https://i.imgur.com/MfN6okf.png

Well, that may be "one LLC" but I sure would like to see the area around 17.5N & 82.5W sampled

Agree, likely the MLC but I bet it becomes dominant.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop. Agree area further east may be interesting for them to sample:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1320074872010276867

[cycloneye]

There it is. Broad low.

https://i.imgur.com/MfN6okf.png

Well, that may be "one LLC" but I sure would like to see the area around 17.5N & 82.5W sampled

Agree, likely the MLC but I bet it becomes dominant.

Going there.

[Jr0d]

Based on satellite and the limited recon data so far, I don't believe this is a depression yet.

We will see what recon finds as they sample more, it also may become a depression while they are investigating it.

[northjaxpro]

Saved loop. Agree area further east may be interesting for them to sample:

https://i.postimg.cc/7hG6tkTq/goes16-vis-95-L-202010241615.gif

Apparently, they are going out there to check out that area to the east.

[NDG]

I don't think they will find an LLC by the MLC, there will have to be some deep convection near it for the LLC to reform down there. For now just a broad closed low pressure near 1006mb. Models show it becoming better organized by tomorrow.

[chaser1]

There it is. Broad low.

https://i.imgur.com/MfN6okf.png

Well, that may be "one LLC" but I sure would like to see the area around 17.5N & 82.5W sampled

Agree, likely the MLC but I bet it becomes dominant.

yup, kind of what I'm thinking. The other thing I'm thinking is that for every hour it remains down there organizing and for every "tick" further west this occurs, then the more apt that I am to believe that 95L will still be in the Caribbean OR inland over the Yucatan 72 hr.'s from now. On the other hand if NHC is correct and a storm tracks north to northwest sooner then that what I can see, then I suppose Louisiana might just have another hurricane threat. Beyond that time frame and toward later next week and I'd guess the threat would turn further east.
Keep in mind, the greater amount of land interaction (if any) the less of a potent CONUS impact thereafter.

[NDG]

Nothing but SW winds under the MLC.

[Blown Away]

Based on satellite and the limited recon data so far, I don't believe this is a depression yet.

We will see what recon finds as they sample more, it also may become a depression while they are investigating it.

Agree, but 18z has 95L at 18.5N/83.2W and I think it’s near 17.6N/82.2W.

[northjaxpro]

Nothing but SW winds under the MLC.

https://i.imgur.com/4gqJAEX.png

Yeah, it is not often you see an MLC become the dominant feature.

[aspen]

The fact that this is a closed yet broad low with 100/100 odds and a high chance of bringing TS impacts to land within a few days means it should get a PTC designation at 5pm.

[Aric Dunn]

No need for you all to guess where it is anymore..

it will likely be doing a bunch of small loops as convection builds.. and some reformations as well.

[NDG]

Based on satellite and the limited recon data so far, I don't believe this is a depression yet.

We will see what recon finds as they sample more, it also may become a depression while they are investigating it.

Agree, but 18z has 95L at 18.5N/83.2W and I think it’s near 17.6N/82.2W.

18z best track position looks good, that's where recon is finding the broad center plus the lowest surface pressure.

[NDG]

No need for you all to guess where it is anymore..

it will likely be doing a bunch of small loops as convection builds..

https://i.ibb.co/rytTYc0/4.gif

Yep, I was just looking at that area but recon passed to the south of it. This will probably become the main LLC if convection keep building near it.

[ozonepete]

There it is. Broad low.

https://i.imgur.com/MfN6okf.png

Well, that may be "one LLC" but I sure would like to see the area around 17.5N & 82.5W sampled

Yup. That's where the true center is forming. Maybe a little more like 17.0 and 82.0