WPAC: MOLAVE - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

hmmmm

[dexterlabio]

More organized convection is starting to build near the center. I think it's on its way to TS classification on or before 12z.

[dexterlabio]

hmmmm
https://s8.gifyu.com/images/gfs_ir_98W_7.png

That's like a Kammuri 2.0

[mrbagyo]

06Z GFS still showing a typhoon before Bicol landfall.

[Iceresistance]

JTWC Warning #2
21W is expected to become a typhoon west of the Philippines, then make a typhoon landfall over Vietnam, but the odds of rapid deepening is there, I will be surprised if we have a CAT 3 major typhoon before a Philippine landfall.


It's also too close to the Philippines for a typhoon as being a large, broad system.

[1900hurricane]

As with many SCS TCs, a lot of future intensity is going to be dependent on what shape it is in after crossing the Philippines.

[aspen]

It’s trying to form a HUGE eyewall.

[NotoSans]

Several 37GHz microwave passes show a cyan ring so significant intensification is very possible before landfall. Also means 35KT from both JMA and JTWC are garbage.

[Hayabusa]

TS 2018 (Molave)
Issued at 19:25 UTC, 24 October 2020

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 24 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°25' (13.4°)
E127°50' (127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 165 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 25 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°50' (13.8°)
E125°10' (125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 25 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°40' (13.7°)
E122°30' (122.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 26 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°40' (13.7°)
E117°25' (117.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 27 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°10' (14.2°)
E111°50' (111.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 28 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°00' (15.0°)
E107°50' (107.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 29 October>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N15°00' (15.0°)
E104°40' (104.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)

[mrbagyo]

Close to typhoon status - looks like the simulated IR of GFS would verify

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
242011Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE; THE 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, WHICH TYPICALLY SIGNALS RAPID INTENSIFICATION ONSET. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER
END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0-2.5 (30-35
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW-MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES (30C) AND
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TS 21W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 21W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING AS IT TRACKS
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS PERSIST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY TO 60 KTS PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN PHILIPPINES NEAR TAU 18. AS IT
TRANSITS OVER THE ARCHIPELAGO, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY
(OR POSSIBLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY) BEFORE THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 80
KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72 WITH A 90NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS
NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES CENTRAL VIETNAM WITH A 135NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS NEAR THE
LANDFALL POINT. TS 21W WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND
BEGINS INTERACTING WITH LAND, AND WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
TRACKS INLAND, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL. DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS, THERE IS
OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[ElectricStorm]

WDPN32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
242011Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE; THE 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, WHICH TYPICALLY SIGNALS RAPID INTENSIFICATION ONSET. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER
END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0-2.5 (30-35
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW-MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES (30C) AND
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TS 21W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 21W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING AS IT TRACKS
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS PERSIST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY TO 60 KTS PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN PHILIPPINES NEAR TAU 18. AS IT
TRANSITS OVER THE ARCHIPELAGO, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY
(OR POSSIBLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY) BEFORE THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 80
KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72 WITH A 90NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS
NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES CENTRAL VIETNAM WITH A 135NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS NEAR THE
LANDFALL POINT. TS 21W WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND
BEGINS INTERACTING WITH LAND, AND WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
TRACKS INLAND, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL. DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS, THERE IS
OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

So uh... In my few years of storm tracking... Most 35kt TS's don't have an eye feature already forming... JTWC back at it again

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 242104
TCSWNP

A. 21W (MOLAVE)

B. 24/2030Z

C. 13.4N

D. 126.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 7.5/10 W BANDING FOR A DT=3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/1729Z 13.4N 127.6E AMSR2


...LEE

[mrbagyo]

up to 50 knots
21W TWENTYONE 201025 0000 13.3N 126.4E WPAC 50 996

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 242124

A. TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE)

B. 24/2040Z

C. 13.37N

D. 127.12E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .75 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS A 2.5 AND PT YIELDS A 3.5. DBO
DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS OF FT CHANGE OF FT TO 0.5 OVER 6 HRS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ELIAS


JTWC fixes this year has been terribly slow compared with KNES. At least between 55 knots to 85 Knots Cat 2.

[doomhaMwx]

SATCON was 65-70kts at 21Z, but that 90kt AMSU estimate is overcooked. Still, 60kts would probably be a good estimate for 00Z?

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10242143
SATCON: MSLP = 990 hPa MSW = 67 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 70.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 60 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 160 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -6.3 knots Source: MW

Member Estimates

ADT: 1000 hPa 47 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT242320
CIMSS AMSU: 982 hPa 91 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10242143
ATMS: 995.0 hPa 39.6 knots Date: 10241725
SSMIS: 995.0 hPa 39.6 knots Date: 10241725
CIRA ATMS: 982 hPa 66 knots Date:

[euro6208]

SATCON already at 65 knots and AMSU up to 91 knots (which performed pretty well leading to Epsilon's peak.)

[mrbagyo]

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 OCT 2020 Time : 001000 UTC
Lat : 13:31:30 N Lon : 126:24:58 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 997.0mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.5 3.8

Center Temp : -81.6C Cloud Region Temp : -80.7C


Environment near Legaspi city can support up to -84 C cloud tops

[1900hurricane]