Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[Ryxn]

Get ready for Eta, folks!

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS looks very similar to the 0z run from last night. Much weaker and much more north. Seems like the 0z run is the only one that gets the idea that a major in the east/central Caribbean coming in from the east from a wave in November is most likely not happening

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS looks very similar to the 0z run from last night. Much weaker and much more north. Seems like the 0z run is the only one that gets the idea that a major in the east/central Caribbean coming in from the east from a wave in November is most likely not happening

Welp... Scratch the second part of that. 0z just a drunk as the others. Spins a second area off the main wave and then that one develops in the western Caribbean at the end of the run. Seriously, why run this thing out to 384 hours lol

[Ryxn]

And this thread still lives!

[Ryxn]

How is model guidance at the moment?

[Loveweather12]

Is it true a storm might form in early November in the Caribbean?
Honestly, I have a feeling FL will feel a storm of some sorts before November 30.
I have not took my shutters down from isias

[TheStormExpert]

Is it true a storm might form in early November in the Caribbean?
Honestly, I have a feeling FL will feel a storm of some sorts before November 30.
I have not took my shutters down from isias

It’s INSANE how lucky Florida has been this year. I along with many others on here were thinking we’d see an October threat similar to Irene in 1999 or Wilma. Not to mention the other two seasons that featured hyperactive level of storms had at least one hurricane threaten the peninsula.

I think it has something to do with the ever persistent SE ridge that has parked itself over The Bahamas and SW Atlantic. It saves us from arctic intrusions and seems to be saving us from any tropical threats coming from the Western Caribbean this season.

[Loveweather12]

Is it true a storm might form in early November in the Caribbean?
Honestly, I have a feeling FL will feel a storm of some sorts before November 30.
I have not took my shutters down from isias

It’s INSANE how lucky Florida has been this year. I along with many others on here were thinking we’d see an October threat similar to Irene in 1999 or Wilma. Not to mention the other two seasons that featured hyperactive level of storms had at least one hurricane threaten the peninsula.

I think it has something to do with the ever persistent SE ridge that has parked itself over The Bahamas and SW Atlantic. It saves us from arctic intrusions and seems to be saving us from any tropical threats coming from the Western Caribbean this season.

I know, I’m concerned that people are becoming complacent which isn’t good. But I can’t shake the feeling that FL will feel something this year. I may be wrong but I’m surprised the models are showing something that late in the season

[Spacecoast]

This seems to originate from clash between African wave, and Venezuela disturbance from the south.

A brief history of recent GFS landfalls for this system:
Thurs 12z: 938mb Cat 4 into Jamaica
Thurs 18z: 947mb Cat 3 into Nicaragua
Fri 0z: 990 mb Cat1 into New York City
Fri 6z: 990mb Cat 1 into Haiti
Fri 12z: 946mb Cat 3 into Cuba
Fri 18z: 988mb Cat 1 into Nicaragua
Sat 0z: 963mb Cat 3 into Cuba
Sat 0z: 959mb Cat 3 into /near Bermuda
Sat 18z 934mb Cat 4 into Jamaica

[Ryxn]

If a storm comes out for this, it would be named Eta which would be the first instance of the "name" and tie 2005 as the most active Atlantic Hurricane Season in terms of tropical storms. Three more TCs would need to form after this for 2020 to be the most active season in terms of tropical cyclones (which is currently held by 2005 with 31).

[FireRat]

I swear, this October is acting like it were Late September in thw tropics with respect to the storm tracks and intensities. Delta comes to mind, and now possibly TD 28 doing a similar path into the northern GOM.

November might as well behave like a typical October if the trend continues. That modeled storm might not be as crazy as it sounds. Caribbean Islands and even peninsular Florida, who has lucked out this season as usual, should keep eyes on the tropics still despite being so late in the season. This year is basically an FU to climatology.

[LarryWx]

I swear, this October is acting like it were Late September in thw tropics with respect to the storm tracks and intensities. Delta comes to mind, and now possibly TD 28 doing a similar path into the northern GOM.

November might as well behave like a typical October if the trend continues. That modeled storm might not be as crazy as it sounds. Caribbean Islands and even peninsular Florida, who has lucked out this season as usual, should keep eyes on the tropics still despite being so late in the season. This year is basically an FU to climatology.

Climo doesn't tell us where something will go. Rather, it is a tool that based on history tells us what the more and less common tracks have been in a general fashion. If something doesn't track fairly close to the more common tracks, it doesn't mean that climo has failed. Individual cases will largely be based on the overall pattern of the time.

[ClarCari]

If a storm comes out for this, it would be named Eta which would be the first instance of the "name" and tie 2005 as the most active Atlantic Hurricane Season in terms of tropical storms. Three more TCs would need to form after this for 2020 to be the most active season in terms of tropical cyclones (which is currently held by 2005 with 31).

I’m curious if we have say 29 or 30 TC’s and names overall assuming TD 10 gets a post-upgrade, would that still make 2020 the most active?

I swear, this October is acting like it were Late September in the tropics with respect to the storm tracks and intensities. Delta comes to mind, and now possibly TD 28 doing a similar path into the northern GOM.

November might as well behave like a typical October if the trend continues. That modeled storm might not be as crazy as it sounds. Caribbean Islands and even peninsular Florida, who has lucked out this season as usual, should keep eyes on the tropics still despite being so late in the season. This year is basically an FU to climatology.

True as a matter of fact if waters stay warm enough, November may not be terribly different from October. The only reason climatology shuts down alot in November is bc most of the Caribbean and the Gulf become too hostile and the WCar becomes the only sliver of favorable area left. However in a year such as this, there are times where the Caribbean still behaves like a warm October with storms like Paloma and Otto!

With a favorable MJO expected to come around again with this convective Kelvin Wave during early Nov. it’d be no surprise to see another storm like those...

[LarryWx]

Maybe S FL will finally get a storm in Nov. It almost sounds like some of you are begging for one as I sense a lot of frustration in not getting one. Maybe those guys would finally be content.

[TheStormExpert]

Is it true a storm might form in early November in the Caribbean?
Honestly, I have a feeling FL will feel a storm of some sorts before November 30.
I have not took my shutters down from isias

It’s INSANE how lucky Florida has been this year. I along with many others on here were thinking we’d see an October threat similar to Irene in 1999 or Wilma. Not to mention the other two seasons that featured hyperactive level of storms had at least one hurricane threaten the peninsula.

I think it has something to do with the ever persistent SE ridge that has parked itself over The Bahamas and SW Atlantic. It saves us from arctic intrusions and seems to be saving us from any tropical threats coming from the Western Caribbean this season.

I know, I’m concerned that people are becoming complacent which isn’t good. But I can’t shake the feeling that FL will feel something this year. I may be wrong but I’m surprised the models are showing something that late in the season

I’ve been growing more concerned on complacency since the whole Isaias thing busted. Saw a lot of businesses board up and homes shutter up. Next time the real deal comes people might say things like it’s nothing to worry about they always turn or die out at the last second.

Though we did have Dorian last year give us a HUGE scare!

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe S FL will finally get a storm in Nov. It almost sounds like some of you are begging for one as I sense a lot of frustration in not getting one. Maybe those guys would finally be content.

Can’t speak for everyone but I’m an adrenaline junkie.

Hopefully if something significant comes this way everyone takes it seriously though!

[SFLcane]

Maybe S FL will finally get a storm in Nov. It almost sounds like some of you are begging for one as I sense a lot of frustration in not getting one. Maybe those guys would finally be content.

Well one thing is sure that ridge will not be around.

[aspen]

The source of “Future Eta” has remained constant: a tropical wave reaching the Lesser Antilles by October 30th/31st and interacting with some other low/collection of vorticity coming north from South America. It could quickly develop in the ECar, become a significant system in the central-western Caribbean, or very slowly develop until it nears Central America. A lot of possibilities remain, but TD28/Zeta has shown that even if a medium/long-range system vanishes a few days from when it’s supposed to form, that doesn’t mean it’s gone for good.

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe S FL will finally get a storm in Nov. It almost sounds like some of you are begging for one as I sense a lot of frustration in not getting one. Maybe those guys would finally be content.

Well one thing is sure that ridge will not be around.

How do we know a ridge won’t be around? The SE Ridge has been present all summer and now into the fall.

[Ryxn]

I’m curious if we have say 29 or 30 TC’s and names overall assuming TD 10 gets a post-upgrade, would that still make 2020 the most active?

Most tropical cyclones: 31 (2005)
Most tropical storms: 28 (2005)
Most hurricanes: 15 (2005)
Most C2+ hurricanes: 10 (1950)
Most major hurricanes: 7 (2005)
Most C4+ hurricanes: 5 (2005, 1999, 1961, 1933)
Most C5 hurricanes: 4 (2005)