ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tiger_deF]

Regardless of where the center actually is right now, the massive amount of convection to the South has been and will likely continue providing at least some southward influence on the center

[ElectricStorm]

A bunch of big time convection firing off south of the center... If that center relocates down there, it's going to go off...

[cp79]

Shades of Mitch with this southward move. Not sure it will continue but the center shift could delay its move through the Yucatán.

[skyline385]

Thats a lot of deep convection, center relocation looking more likely

[underthwx]

A bunch of big time convection firing off south of the center... If that center relocates down there, it's going to go off...

That is close to Honduras, correct?....if the center were to reform down there....what implications would that present I wonder?....

[underthwx]

Thats a lot of deep convection, center relocation looking more likely

https://i.imgur.com/5TEqbLW.jpg

It sure does look like a real possibility, looking at satellite imagery...the 11 pm NHC advisory makes reference to this reformation possibility...

[crimi481]

Is a 2nd low trying to form over S.E. Cuba?

[Blown Away]

A bunch of big time convection firing off south of the center... If that center relocates down there, it's going to go off...

That is close to Honduras, correct?....if the center were to reform down there....what implications would that present I wonder?....

If the center is stationary at the 11pm position it’s void of convection b/c that convection blob is to the SSE. Any significant adjustment SE could allow more land time over Yucatan and not gain as much latitude in the EGOM before getting kicked NE towards FL Peninsula.

[underthwx]

A bunch of big time convection firing off south of the center... If that center relocates down there, it's going to go off...

That is close to Honduras, correct?....if the center were to reform down there....what implications would that present I wonder?....

If the center is stationary at the 11pm position it’s void of convection b/c that convection blob is to the SSE. Any significant adjustment SE could allow more land time over Yucatan and not gain as much latitude in the EGOM before getting kicked NE towards FL Peninsula.

Thanks....that's exactly what I was wondering....

[tiger_deF]

The convection keeps on covering a larger and larger area, if the center truly has moved/reformed to the South I think we may wake up to a strengthening tropical storm

[3090]

28 is not going anywhere near the GOM, until that high moves out of the Gulf to the east over Florida. It is a very big high. Once that occurs, 28 will get moving WNW to NW into the SGOM. It is very evident looking at the WV imagery. Then it will boil down to timing, on when 28 or whatever it becomes, gets slingshotted towards the N then NE, pretty rapidly and is evident by how far it moves in one 24 hour time period from Wednesday afternoon, thru Thursday afternoon. That is some pretty fast movement in the forecast track. But until the high gets out of the way to the north, it is not going to budge. Nothing really different than what the NHC is forecasting.

[us89]

And we officially have Zeta

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ZETA...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[ElectricStorm]

Hello Zeta...

[CrazyC83]

And so we get to Z. Unlike in 2005, we probably won't end there...

[ElectricStorm]

And so we get to Z. Unlike in 2005, we probably won't end there...

Crazy how we hit Zeta... and it's still October

[us89]

I guess it goes without saying that this is the earliest "Zeta" named storm on record...

[ColdMiser123]

Recon finding east winds at 18.5 N, so the low-level center is at least a bit south of the NHC position estimate.

[ElectricStorm]

Really looks like the center will relocate south. Watch out folks, I think this one has some big potential down there if it gets fully organized quickly.

[northjaxpro]

Recon finding east winds at 18.5 N, so the low-level center is at least a bit south of the NHC position estimate.

Center relocation possible.

[ClarCari]

I think the new center the NHC put for intermediate was a compromise as they had to issue it @2AM before recon arrived. It was pretty obvious to everyone the center was relocating south.
I wouldn’t be surprised with the full advisory with recon data that they issue it’s location even further south.