ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ColdMiser123]

Recon finding east winds at 18.5 N, so the low-level center is at least a bit south of the NHC position estimate.

Center relocation possible.

Still finding very weak east winds at ~17.9 N, so it would appear as though there has been some kind of drift toward the convection farther south since the last recon mission.

[northjaxpro]

Really looks like the center will relocate south. Watch out folks, I think this one has some big potential down there if it gets fully organized quickly.
https://i.imgur.com/6VQLHXG.gif

I think the possibility is increasing that Zeta may get trapped and not move much at all for a few days in the Caribbean until that stronger shortwave ejects from the Southern Plains by mid week to pick Zeta up N then NE. Zeta potentially could become a very intense tropical cyclone as well within the next couple of days.

[LarryWx]

Really looks like the center will relocate south. Watch out folks, I think this one has some big potential down there if it gets fully organized quickly.
https://i.imgur.com/6VQLHXG.gif

I think the possibility is increasing that Zeta may get trapped and not move much at all for a few days in the Caribbean until that stronger shortwave ejects from the Southern Plains by mid week to pick Zeta up N then NE. Zeta potentially could become a very intense tropical cyclone as well within the next couple of days.

I wonder if this may instead go into C America and dissipate there/not come back out because it is too far south of that stronger shortwave, Possible?

[underthwx]

Really looks like the center will relocate south. Watch out folks, I think this one has some big potential down there if it gets fully organized quickly.
https://i.imgur.com/6VQLHXG.gif

I think the possibility is increasing that Zeta may get trapped and not move much at all for a few days in the Caribbean until that stronger shortwave ejects from the Southern Plains by mid week to pick Zeta up N then NE. Zeta potentially could become a very intense tropical cyclone as well within the next couple of days.

That's what I am concerned about occuring....it appears to me that it is reforming further south?....and the further south the center, the likelihood of it basically remaining stationary increases?.... please correct me if I am not accurate...

[northjaxpro]

Really looks like the center will relocate south. Watch out folks, I think this one has some big potential down there if it gets fully organized quickly.
https://i.imgur.com/6VQLHXG.gif

I think the possibility is increasing that Zeta may get trapped and not move much at all for a few days in the Caribbean until that stronger shortwave ejects from the Southern Plains by mid week to pick Zeta up N then NE. Zeta potentially could become a very intense tropical cyclone as well within the next couple of days.

I wonder if this may instead go into C America and dissipate there/not come back out because it is too far south of that stronger shortwave, Possible?

It is certainly a possibility Larry that Zeta could pull a Mitch move.

[LarryWx]

I think the possibility is increasing that Zeta may get trapped and not move much at all for a few days in the Caribbean until that stronger shortwave ejects from the Southern Plains by mid week to pick Zeta up N then NE. Zeta potentially could become a very intense tropical cyclone as well within the next couple of days.

I wonder if this may instead go into C America and dissipate there/not come back out because it is too far south of that stronger shortwave, Possible?

It is certainly a possibility Larry that Zeta could pull a Mitch move.

Thanks, Jax. I didn't give your post a '"like" because of a desire for it to happen as Mitch was so devastating to Honduras and nearby countries. I gave it a like because I appreciated the reply.
Here is some climo/history for tracks for late Oct geneses. Note that besides Mitch, there were 6 others that went into CA and never came back out:

[ColdMiser123]

Center is still quite broad, but I would put it at closer to 17.6/17.7 N.

Still no sign of an inner core, so any kind of strengthening should be slow before that happens. However, the low level center does appear to now be better co-located under some of the convection compared to earlier.

[northjaxpro]

Really looks like the center will relocate south. Watch out folks, I think this one has some big potential down there if it gets fully organized quickly.
https://i.imgur.com/6VQLHXG.gif

I think the possibility is increasing that Zeta may get trapped and not move much at all for a few days in the Caribbean until that stronger shortwave ejects from the Southern Plains by mid week to pick Zeta up N then NE. Zeta potentially could become a very intense tropical cyclone as well within the next couple of days.

That's what I am concerned about occuring....it appears to me that it is reforming further south?....and the further south the center, the likelihood of it basically remaining stationary increases?.... please correct me if I am not accurate...

There are no definitive steering currents in the area where Zeta is currently. As someone astutely mentiomed earlier, it is highly uncertain what will unfold short term with Zeta. Ir could meander around for the next 24-48 hours, or it could do a Hurricane Mitch move in which weak steering took it right into Central America after it drifted south for a period of time. I am not saying that will happen now with Zeta, but it definitely is a possibility.

[underthwx]

I think the possibility is increasing that Zeta may get trapped and not move much at all for a few days in the Caribbean until that stronger shortwave ejects from the Southern Plains by mid week to pick Zeta up N then NE. Zeta potentially could become a very intense tropical cyclone as well within the next couple of days.

That's what I am concerned about occuring....it appears to me that it is reforming further south?....and the further south the center, the likelihood of it basically remaining stationary increases?.... please correct me if I am not accurate...

There are no definitive steering currents in the area where Zeta is currently. As someone astutely mentiomed earlier, it is highly uncertain what will unfold short term with Zeta. Ir could meander around for the next 24-48 hours, or it could do a Hurricane Mitch move in which weak steering took it right into Central America after it drifted south for a period of time. I am not saying that will happen now with Zeta, but it definitely is a possibility.

Thanks for the reply Northjax....I always appreciate it....yeah....my concern is Zeta getting pinned down there, allowing for a possible stronger system, and posing a bigger threat....thanks

[northjaxpro]

I wonder if this may instead go into C America and dissipate there/not come back out because it is too far south of that stronger shortwave, Possible?

It is certainly a possibility Larry that Zeta could pull a
Thanks, Jax. I didn't give your post a '"like" because of a desire for it to happen as Mitch was so devastating to Honduras and nearby countries. I gave it a like because I appreciated the reply.
Here is some climo/history for tracks for late Oct geneses. Note that besides Mitch, there were 6 others that went into CA and never came back out:

https://i.imgur.com/44Dh0e7.png

Excellent post Larry showing the historical precedent of cyclones pulling the Mitch move into CA . Zeta potentially could do the same.

[LarryWx]

So, with Zeta, we now got our 3rd W Car Oct TS genesis. On record back to 1851, this has occurred only two other times, 2005 and 1870!

Also, I forgot to mention that 1998, the year of Mitch, was also a similarly strong 1st year La Nina.

[underthwx]

It is certainly a possibility Larry that Zeta could pull a
Thanks, Jax. I didn't give your post a '"like" because of a desire for it to happen as Mitch was so devastating to Honduras and nearby countries. I gave it a like because I appreciated the reply.
Here is some climo/history for tracks for late Oct geneses. Note that besides Mitch, there were 6 others that went into CA and never came back out:

https://i.imgur.com/44Dh0e7.png

Excellent post Larry showing the historical precedent of cyclones pulling the Mitch move into CA . Zeta potentially could do the same.

I echo Northjaxpros sentiments on you post Larry....that's good stuff man.....

[Ryxn]

So, with Zeta, we now got our 3rd W Car Oct TS genesis. On record back to 1851, this has occurred only two other times, 2005 and 1870!

Also, I forgot to mention that 1998, the year of Mitch, was also a similarly strong 1st year La Nina.

And we could get a record 4 if the early November system somehow becomes a TS on Halloween

[ozonepete]

Just wanted to note here that there's nothing in the steering winds forecast from any of the major models that has this "doing a Mitch." There has to be some solid reasoning from the atmospheric forecasts to expect that.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning Pete. Respect your thoughts on this, but you know as much as me on how unpredictable it can get on a meandering cyclone in the Western Caribbean. The models have struggled all season long, plus the historical precedent in place for cyclones to do something similar to what Mitch did in 1998. As I stated earlier, I am not saying this will happen, but you can not dismiss the possibilly fully Pete.

[ozonepete]

Good morning Pete

Hi Jax. Long season for sure. And with the MJO possibly about to go quite positive over the Atlantic, it's far from over.

[underthwx]

I tried looking at the Recon thread....but all those numbers are one big blur to me...I wonder if they have determined if there is a center reformation in progress?....I believe they just recently arrived in the area?....so I assume it will take some time to investigate Zeta....

[Airboy]

A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 7:31:39Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.70N 83.44W

[underthwx]

A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 7:31:39Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.70N 83.44W

How does that compare to the previous center location?...

[northjaxpro]

A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 7:31:39Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.70N 83.44W

Significant south relocation of the center.