ATL: ZETA - Models

[Blown Away]

If it tracks that far West...my socks will be on the menu as well...lol

A track into SE Texas would be EXTREMELY rare. But I always hedge my bets with, it is 2020.

Words of wisdom....but seriously....with fronts in the area, would that not shield the Texas coast?....

No modeling now indicates a TX threat, and in 4-5 days a strong front is coming to sweep TD28 to the NE... When that turn begins will determine landfall. NHC has just S of Central LA coast and landfall E LA/MS... If TD28 takes longer to get out of Caribbean and doesn’t gain as much latitude as predicted that NE turn will be farther S in the GOM and result in a FL Panhandle or FL Peninsula landfall..

[underthwx]

A track into SE Texas would be EXTREMELY rare. But I always hedge my bets with, it is 2020.

Words of wisdom....but seriously....with fronts in the area, would that not shield the Texas coast?....

No modeling now indicates a TX threat, and in 4-5 days a strong front is coming to sweep TD28 to the NE... When that turn begins will determine landfall. NHC has just S of Central LA coast and landfall E LA/MS... If TD28 takes longer to get out of Caribbean and doesn’t gain as much latitude as predicted that NE turn will be farther S in the GOM and result in a FL Panhandle or FL Peninsula landfall..

Thankyou for that reply...

[Jr0d]

I have low confidence in the models. Tomorrow there will be an upper air recon mission, the model runs with that data wont be out until Monday...by then there should be some NW movement if the current forecast holds true.

Climatology does not support the forecast track, and historically systems in this spot, this time of the year are notoriously difficult to forecast.

I am very interested in the NHC's upcoming discussion.

[blp]

I have low confidence in the models. Tomorrow there will be an upper air recon mission, the model runs with that data wont be out until Monday...by then there should be some NW movement if the current forecast holds true.

Climatology does not support the forecast track, and historically systems in this spot, this time of the year are notoriously difficult to forecast.

I am very interested in the NHC's upcoming discussion.

I agree, I can remember lots of storms that meandered in that region. It's late in the season and highs are not that strong and don't last. I think the next 24 hours will be interesting if it slides further South it could be caught in a dead zone of limited steering.

[LarryWx]

I have low confidence in the models. Tomorrow there will be an upper air recon mission, the model runs with that data wont be out until Monday...by then there should be some NW movement if the current forecast holds true.

Climatology does not support the forecast track, and historically systems in this spot, this time of the year are notoriously difficult to forecast.

I am very interested in the NHC's upcoming discussion.

As has been said a much of times here by others to me and others, I'm sure you know that climatology doesn't control where any one storm will go. I just gives guidelines with some tracks more favored than others. It doesn't say that any specific reasonable track is anywhere near impossible. Also, climo is always changing.

[Jr0d]

I have low confidence in the models. Tomorrow there will be an upper air recon mission, the model runs with that data wont be out until Monday...by then there should be some NW movement if the current forecast holds true.

Climatology does not support the forecast track, and historically systems in this spot, this time of the year are notoriously difficult to forecast.

I am very interested in the NHC's upcoming discussion.

As has been said a much of times here by others to me and others, I'm sure you know that climatology doesn't control where any one storm will go. I just gives guidelines with some tracks more favored than others. It doesn't say that any specific reasonable track is anywhere near impossible. Also, climo is always changing.

Regardless, climatology can not be ignored. When there is a large disagreement with the models, climatology is often a good guidence fallback.

I would bet against this storm making it past 90° W. This time tomorrow guidence will be better with recon data, by Monday we should have good confidence.

The NHC mentioned the uncertainty with the forecast...

[toad strangler]

I have low confidence in the models. Tomorrow there will be an upper air recon mission, the model runs with that data wont be out until Monday...by then there should be some NW movement if the current forecast holds true.

Climatology does not support the forecast track, and historically systems in this spot, this time of the year are notoriously difficult to forecast.

I am very interested in the NHC's upcoming discussion.

As has been said a much of times here by others to me and others, I'm sure you know that climatology doesn't control where any one storm will go. I just gives guidelines with some tracks more favored than others. It doesn't say that any specific reasonable track is anywhere near impossible. Also, climo is always changing.

Regardless, climatology can not be ignored. When there is a large disagreement with the models, climatology is often a good guidence fallback.

I would bet against this storm making it past 90° W. This time tomorrow guidence will be better with recon data, by Monday we should have good confidence.

The NHC mentioned the uncertainty with the forecast...

Climo is extremely useful in certain situations and IMO this is one of them. We'll see.

[Stormcenter]

ICON model shifted considerably west. Now
over SE LA.

[AtlanticWind]

I think its possible this gets stuck in the W Carribean longer than the models currently forecast.
If this occurs I think the models will switch to a Florida Big bend or maybe even Tampa area landfall.

[Steve]

GFS hits the LA coast weakening. That would make 6 named landfalls on the state in a year counting Olga last October 26, but luckily only 2 were consequential. I think it might hit east of here, but I’m not 100%. Would be cool if it’s weak and just adds another Greek hit, another storm west of 85 (possibly 90) and another US landfall record.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z UKMET is quite a bit W of its prior run, much weaker/never more than a 1003 TD, and has it dissipate S of W LA!

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 83.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL282020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.10.2020 0 18.8N 83.6W 1005 25
1200UTC 25.10.2020 12 19.2N 83.1W 1006 26
0000UTC 26.10.2020 24 19.5N 83.7W 1004 25
1200UTC 26.10.2020 36 20.0N 84.6W 1004 26
0000UTC 27.10.2020 48 20.7N 86.0W 1004 26
1200UTC 27.10.2020 60 22.2N 88.2W 1005 29
0000UTC 28.10.2020 72 23.5N 90.5W 1004 31
1200UTC 28.10.2020 84 25.6N 92.6W 1004 32
0000UTC 29.10.2020 96 28.7N 93.0W 1003 33
1200UTC 29.10.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

And right after posting this, I see the NHC upgraded it to a 1002 mb TS!

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Euro is still another run into C LA (as a TS). This run is even faster with a LF already by late Wed afternoon. That seems too fast.

[ronjon]

Big shift east in 06z GFS and stronger. Now into Pensacola at 992 mb. Might be the start of a trend with Zeta meandering longer and/or the midlatitude trough moving in faster.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020102506&fh=174

[Weatherboy1]

Big shift east in 06z GFS and stronger. Now into Pensacola at 992 mb. Might be the start of a trend with Zeta meandering longer and/or the midlatitude trough moving in faster.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020102506&fh=174

Like I said yesterday afternoon, I see little chance this landfalls west of Panama City Beach or so. Models will gradually shift east just like they have done with other late season storms they’ve gotten wrong (Irene in 1999 a prime example). You have to
Give models a “climatology adjustment” this time of year IMO.

[NDG]

06z Euro shifted west to SW LA.

[ronjon]

06z GFS para landfall just east of Pensacola at 965 mb.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020102506&fh=90

[NDG]

06z GFS para landfall just east of Pensacola at 965 mb.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020102506&fh=90

Over Pensacola, not east of Pensacola.

Edit: After looking at the whole run, it should be thrown out the window, it has it hitting the western tip of Cuba, that's not happening.

[ronjon]

06z GFS para landfall just east of Pensacola at 965 mb.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020102506&fh=90

Over Pensacola, not east of Pensacola.

Hahaha...you're splitting hairs my friend. But to show how far out of sync the Euro and UKMET are with most of the track guidance take a look at the 12z guidance from tidbits. They're either scoring a coup here or out to lunch.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/28L_tracks_latest.png

[Ivanhater]

12Z

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[aspen]

HMON and HWRF seem to have initialized Zeta well. Both runs show quick stacking within the next 12 hours and RI into a 960-970s hurricane before making landfall in the Yucatán in 42-48 hours.