ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Laminar]

What are the chances, if any, that it just wobbles and reforms further and further SW effectively in a westerly track into Belize?

[Aric Dunn]

The last recon fix LLC is almost completely stretched out now. very likely a new center is developing under the convection to the south.

[wxman57]

Looks completely awful, to me. Maybe a weak swirl north of the convection. To say "I've seen worse" sounds like a line from a Monty Python movie. This doesn't look like a strengthening TS.

[CyclonicFury]

The last recon fix LLC is almost completely stretched out now. very likely a new center is developing under the convection to the south.

The latest ASCAT pass seems to confirm this! ENE winds down below 17N. That's nearly a full degree latitude below the 11am NHC estimate.

[aspen]

The good news is that a NOAA plane just took off and we should get some new center fixes of Zeta within the next few hours. Maybe wxman is right about a weak and poorly organized TS, maybe Aric is right about center relocation even further south.

[underthwx]

The last recon fix LLC is almost completely stretched out now. very likely a new center is developing under the convection to the south.

The latest ASCAT pass seems to confirm this! ENE winds down below 17N. That's nearly a full degree latitude below the 11am NHC estimate.
https://i.imgur.com/OzugwOi.jpg

Can you help me understand the implications of this?...Zeta is full of twists and turns it would seem!...

[skyline385]

12Z GFS seems to be agreeing with ICON with a Cat 1 landfall

I'm skeptical of a couple of things. First, the NHC has it becoming a hurricane as it exits the Yucatan Peninsula. I'd think that would be unlikely. GFS and ICON keep it a TS until 12 hrs prior to landfall Wednesday, when the NHC indicates weakening. I think both the GFS and ICON are having difficulty with the strong cold front that will be moving into the NW Gulf to its west Wednesday. They may be indicating some type of baroclinic deepening (not tropical) as the front approaches. Relative wind shear may drop a little as it makes the N-NNE turn on Wednesday, but there will still be the dry air and decreasing oceanic heat content. Just doesn't look favorable for a hurricane in the Gulf.

Conditions dont look favorable in the Gulf at all but the GFS spins it up in the Caribbean and carries a healthy amount of moisture with it into the Gulf. It also barely clips the Yucatan peninsula so the core more or less remains intact and dry air probably isnt able to weaken it much.

[blp]

The last recon fix LLC is almost completely stretched out now. very likely a new center is developing under the convection to the south.

The latest ASCAT pass seems to confirm this! ENE winds down below 17N. That's nearly a full degree latitude below the 11am NHC estimate.
https://i.imgur.com/OzugwOi.jpg

Wow, even below where I thought. That also means it's is better organized since under the deep convection.

[Aric Dunn]

The last recon fix LLC is almost completely stretched out now. very likely a new center is developing under the convection to the south.

The latest ASCAT pass seems to confirm this! ENE winds down below 17N. That's nearly a full degree latitude below the 11am NHC estimate.
https://i.imgur.com/OzugwOi.jpg

It makes perfect sense looking at the convective pattern and the low level curvature on the west flank.

this ultimately acts to slow it down and thus east shifts are likely.

[CyclonicFury]

The last recon fix LLC is almost completely stretched out now. very likely a new center is developing under the convection to the south.

The latest ASCAT pass seems to confirm this! ENE winds down below 17N. That's nearly a full degree latitude below the 11am NHC estimate.
https://i.imgur.com/OzugwOi.jpg

Can you help me understand the implications of this?...Zeta is full of twists and turns it would seem!...

It likely means the models will have to correct southward. Chances of a direct landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula are increasing, which would likely mean Zeta would weaken some prior to entering the Gulf of Mexico.

[underthwx]

Looks completely awful, to me. Maybe a weak swirl north of the convection. To say "I've seen worse" sounds like a line from a Monty Python movie. This doesn't look like a strengthening TS.

http://wxman57.com/images/zeta1.JPG

I believe you are referring to me Wxman57...I looked at it earlier on the NHC infrared imagery....to me it did not look too bad on satellite..you are a pro, compared to my untrained eye.... please excuse my poor assessment

[skyline385]

The latest ASCAT pass seems to confirm this! ENE winds down below 17N. That's nearly a full degree latitude below the 11am NHC estimate.
https://i.imgur.com/OzugwOi.jpg

Can you help me understand the implications of this?...Zeta is full of twists and turns it would seem!...

It likely means the models will have to correct southward. Chances of a direct landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula are increasing, which would likely mean Zeta would weaken some prior to entering the Gulf of Mexico.

Wouldn't a southward shift mean more time to travel and therefore an eastward shift since the ridge will be weakening by the time it gets to the channel? Also more time in the Caribbean so stronger and more Beta drift too?

[GCANE]

The last recon fix LLC is almost completely stretched out now. very likely a new center is developing under the convection to the south.

Absolutely.
Its going to align with the anticyclone.
Very symmetrical and rotating high rain-rate signature.
This could ramp quickly.
On the lookout now for any warm-core signatures.
Very favorable UL conditions, no PV streamers for hundreds of miles.

[underthwx]

Looks completely awful, to me. Maybe a weak swirl north of the convection. To say "I've seen worse" sounds like a line from a Monty Python movie. This doesn't look like a strengthening TS.

http://wxman57.com/images/zeta1.JPG

I believe you are referring to me Wxman57...I looked at it earlier on the NHC infrared imagery....to me it did not look too bad on satellite..you are a pro, compared to my untrained eye.... please excuse my poor assessment

...I sometimes talk, when I should just be listening....

[Aric Dunn]

Another new ASCAT.

Definitely is reforming/reformed about 75+ miles to the SSE.

have to wait for 18z models now.

[blp]

Here is another ascat. Elongated.

[GCANE]

Very solid thermal profile.

Good warm core with deep cold pools above and below.
Can easily support strengthening convection.

[GCANE]

Another new ASCAT.

Definitely is reforming/reformed about 75+ miles to the SSE.

have to wait for 18z models now.

https://i.ibb.co/RcKH9ZY/LATEST.jpg

That east-to-west moving hot tower this morning really did the trick.

[plasticup]

Reforming south will slow the track timing. Could this put Florida into play?

[skyline385]

Is it me or has it grown a lot in size with all the deep convection going off? The structure seems to be improving as well.