ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Starting to shout hurricane from appearance in my opinion...

But I must admit Delta did not get intense like I expected...

[cp79]

Reforming south will slow the track timing. Could this put Florida into play?

Panhandle, yes. I don’t see it getting East of Panama City, though. Eventually HP will steer this Nw into central gulf.

[GCANE]

Kermit on the way in.

[GCANE]

Good timing with recon.
Tons of concentrated lightning now.

[Blown Away]

Another new ASCAT.

Definitely is reforming/reformed about 75+ miles to the SSE.

have to wait for 18z models now.

https://i.ibb.co/RcKH9ZY/LATEST.jpg

The 11pm yesterday predicted Zeta would be @19.5N now and clearly @150+ miles S of that prediction now. All these S adjustments at some point should have significant impacts on long term track???

[GCANE]

High-helicity tower fired off and left a brief warm-core signature.
Good chance this should tighten up by the time recon arrives.

[skyline385]

Recon getting lots of 35 kts SFMRs this far out (almost 4 degrees north of the towers)

[ElectricStorm]

NOAA upper level recon mission just took off. Nice to have those upper level samplings but it seems like they haven't used much of those this year. Glad we have them for this one.

[skyline385]

2 PM advisory doesnt talk much about center relocation, probably waiting for recon to confirm

[GCANE]

Getting a refire now.

[aspen]

Recon is down to operational altitude.

[Blown Away]

2 PM advisory doesnt talk much about center relocation, probably waiting for recon to confirm

18N/84W at 2pm. Very weak broad naked rotation. Convection still getting pushed south. Either Zeta is not real healthy with exposed circulation or there is another center reformation coming under the deep convection to the S.

[StAuggy]

Does anyone have any updates on the strength and position of the high pressure over Florida and any trends of it being displaced further north or east? I feel like with approaching Atlantic MDR systems there is always discussion of will the ridge block it or curve OTS and that’s always a wait and see development so a few days out how high is the confidence that this high pressure over FL is going to be where it’s supposed to be?

[skyline385]

Is this more of the warm core exposing itself?

[MJGarrison]

Does the fact that the center continues reforming south just keep Zeta further out on the periphery of the ridge?


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[GCANE]

Is this more of the warm core exposing itself?

https://i.imgur.com/juKKx26.jpg

Yup, or the warm-core getting warmer

[GCANE]

Need watch this for another hour or so, but IR looks like its building an eyewall with a nice hot tower.

[blp]

Below 17.7 pressure keeps dropping... Center is indeed further South.

[underthwx]

Looking at Zeta on satellite loop...it almost appears to be drifting a bit southward?...

[cp79]

Looking at Zeta on satellite loop...it almost appears to be drifting a bit southward?...

It’s getting very close to Honduras. It’s don’t think anyone predicted that. The first real surprise with this system.