Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[ElectricStorm]

Honestly if Zeta wasn't out there we would definitely hit 60 pages on this thread but since Zeta is out there, depending it what it does over the next several days, it will be close to hit 60

[toad strangler]

:eek: Cuts up the spin.

https://i.postimg.cc/FFT5jkW7/69-AE8115-8254-49-CD-8-E2-E-106139-DB5322.png

384 HOUR MAP. meh

[SFLcane]

:eek: Cuts up the spin.

https://i.postimg.cc/FFT5jkW7/69-AE8115-8254-49-CD-8-E2-E-106139-DB5322.png

384 HOUR MAP. meh

@ 168hrs it’s already showing up in the GEFS ensembles.

[SFLcane]

:eek: Cuts up the spin.

https://i.postimg.cc/FFT5jkW7/69-AE8115-8254-49-CD-8-E2-E-106139-DB5322.png

384 HOUR MAP. meh

How about 1-3 more Caribbean tc’s?

 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1320471702044872704

[aspen]

Even if Zeta bombs out into a major, it won’t be as significant of an ACE maker as Delta or Epsilon. Eta, on the other hand, has a chance to become another 15-25 ACE major if it has multiple days over WCar waters. It could potentially be some late-season slop, or it could be comparable to the 1932 Cuba hurricane.

[Spacecoast]

Can someone explain the west to east movement of some members?
I've never seen such a contraflow before.

[CyclonicFury]

Can someone explain the west to east movement of some members?
I've never seen such a contraflow before.
https://i.ibb.co/jkrMYcd/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh318-372-1.gif

Caribbean storms that form in November are often very erratic and occasionally move eastward. See Lenny in 1999 for an example.

[Spacecoast]

Can someone explain the west to east movement of some members?
I've never seen such a contraflow before.
https://i.ibb.co/jkrMYcd/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh318-372-1.gif

Caribbean storms that form in November are often very erratic and occasionally move eastward. See Lenny in 1999 for an example.

Thanks CF, I've looked at Lenny track before, but never realized it actually started out in Western Caribbean and tracked east past Leewards.
I just assumed it was the other way around as an african wave.
Very unusual.

[cycloneye]

Forgot something important and is that I started the Pre Zeta thread with a TWO while this one with 6 pages has not seen a TWO so it began with an advantage.

[Ryxn]

Forgot something important and is that I started the Pre Zeta thread with a TWO while this one with 6 pages has not seen a TWO so it began with an advantage.

Fair point! Yes, I'm pretty certain your thread will remain the most legendary pre-Invest thread in Storm2k history

[TheStormExpert]

:eek: Cuts up the spin.

https://i.postimg.cc/FFT5jkW7/69-AE8115-8254-49-CD-8-E2-E-106139-DB5322.png

Well we know this won’t happen!

Probably YET ANOTHER Northern Gulf Threat threat if I had to guess. Teleconnections do not support a deep trough drawing NE towards the Florida peninsula anytime soon. That SE Ridge will hold firm.

2020 is the Northern Gulf Coasts 2004 for Florida.

[SFLcane]

Here is your culprit the models are developing in the Caribbean.

[aspen]

18z GFS-P is another Hispaniola slop storm. I think the difference between the Euro/CMC solutions (WCar/SWCar development) and the GFS/GFS-P solutions (central/eastern Caribbean development) are due to the speed of the precursor wave after it reaches the Lesser Antilles. It’s important to note that the GFS models have Eta around Hispaniola at the same time the Euro and CMC have it developing in the WCar.

[ElectricStorm]

I haven't looked at the CMC as much as the other models but the 0z run has an intensifying storm at 963mb in the western Caribbean at the end of the run.
0z GFS has a Cat 2 grazing Jamaica before landfalling in Cuba.

[CrazyC83]

:eek: Cuts up the spin.

https://i.postimg.cc/FFT5jkW7/69-AE8115-8254-49-CD-8-E2-E-106139-DB5322.png

Well we know this won’t happen!

Probably YET ANOTHER Northern Gulf Threat threat if I had to guess. Teleconnections do not support a deep trough drawing NE towards the Florida peninsula anytime soon. That SE Ridge will hold firm.

2020 is the Northern Gulf Coasts 2004 for Florida.

That would completely deviate from climatology. I can't think of a storm ever hitting Texas or Louisiana in November.

[Ryxn]

Still more likely to be Eta if named but it could be Theta if the low pressure near Bermuda birthes Eta instead. Credit to @aspen for reminding me of this area of possibility cyclogenesis.

[SFLcane]

EPS had quite a few members hitting Florida.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1320680065064226817

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1320707722757681153