ATL: ZETA - Models

[MGC]

0Z GFs has Zeta right on top of me at 0Z Thursday 986mb hurricane.....MGC

[NDG]

[cajungal]

Let’s see if we can dodge another storm for the 7th time here in Terrebonne/Lafourche

[SconnieCane]

https://i.imgur.com/UNTNCRc.png

Oh s***.

[NDG]

I'm sure the sounding data collected by the NOAA recon is what is making the GFS more aggressive with Zeta tonight.

[smw1981]

Are the 0z models tonight the models with all of the recon/atmosphere data in them? Or will that be the 06z models? (This may have been said earlier.. if so, I apologize that I missed it!)

[ElectricStorm]

0z CMC a lot weaker in the gulf than the GFS. Peaks at 999mb before heading to the coast at 1001mb.

0z ICON is in between the CMC and GFS and peaks as a Cat 1 in the gulf with slight weakening, but not much, before landfall.

[NDG]

0z CMC a lot weaker in the gulf than the GFS. Peaks at 999mb before heading to the coast at 1001mb.

CMC has been horrible, I stopped looking at it.

[NDG]

Are the 0z models tonight the models with all of the recon/atmosphere data in them? Or will that be the 06z models? (This may have been said earlier.. if so, I apologize that I missed it!)

Yes, the data is in tonight's 0z models.

[ElectricStorm]

0z CMC a lot weaker in the gulf than the GFS. Peaks at 999mb before heading to the coast at 1001mb.

CMC has been horrible, I stopped looking at it.

Yeah I highly doubt this storm stays that weak

[CrazyC83]

I was hoping I wouldn't have to post for the rest of the season after Delta, but here I am typing in Zeta, seeing these West shifts are very concerning to me. Even if we just get TS strength winds here in the SW portion of Louisiana, with all the damage already done, who knows what would happen.

And what's to say that this still isn't it? Has a storm ever made landfall in Texas or Louisiana in November?

Still, this is quite late anyway. Only storm this late to hit the western Gulf I can think of is Juan 1985.

[Steve]

1861 we got hit Nov 1 per google.

But last year we got hit by Olga on 10/26. It came from the SW but I do understand memory loss these days. Haha

[bella_may]

06Z has a 976mb storm making landfall in SE Louisiana. Might make a second landfall in MS

[Dean4Storms]

06Z has a 976mb storm making landfall in SE Louisiana. Might make a second landfall in MS

Yea, center passes just east of NOrleans.

[N2FSU]

6z GFS


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[N2FSU]

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[LowerAlabamaTider]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201026/9574c00502b362ee5ea5b57826251205.jpg


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Yep that would be right in the old proverbial backyard!

[NDG]

06z Euro now in fairly good agreement by just a few miles with the 06z GFS, but slower and stronger. This would be a Cat 2 hurricane heating SE LA if correct with the impacts well east to MS to and AL because of the angle moving in.

[HurricaneIrma]

What could Montgomery AL get from this storm

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[NDG]

06z Euro ensembles, now in better agreement with the GFS ensembles.