ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#821 Postby bella_may » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:34 am

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#822 Postby Frank2 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:34 am

I guess the models didn't show this strengthening much before the Yucatan for a reason... Looks like peak may be in the gulf now although if Zeta is still as bad as it is now it may not recover after crossing land


Perhaps one reason for my earlier comment though my guess if its struggling now it'll struggle more in the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#823 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:41 am

ARCHER is showing this now as a Cat 1
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#824 Postby Big_Stevo29 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:42 am

O.T. Why isn't a symbol for #Zeta on the map on the S2K homepage? The only system I'm seeing is a #TD27 out in the #Atlantic. #AskingForAFriend 8-)
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#825 Postby Jr0d » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:47 am

The LLC is exposed, running out of the convection. Zeta has peaked, highly unlikely it will reconsolidate before landfall. There is a small window for it to re-strengthen in the Gulf, but will be fighting dry air then shear.....

My amatuer opinion.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#826 Postby wx98 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:49 am

10:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 26
Location: 19.1°N 85.3°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#827 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:53 am

NHC keeping Zeta at 70 mph & 992 MB
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#828 Postby Steve » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:58 am

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#829 Postby aspen » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:02 am

NHC is still expecting a Cat1 before landfall (they say shear will ablate very soon) and a period of moderate re-strengthening in the Gulf while conditions are fair.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#830 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:10 am

AF309 on the runway
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#831 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:12 am

Really nice hot tower.
That swirl lasted about a whole 5 seconds.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#832 Postby plasticup » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:20 am

Big_Stevo29 wrote:O.T. Why isn't a symbol for #Zeta on the map on the S2K homepage? The only system I'm seeing is a #TD27 out in the #Atlantic. #AskingForAFriend 8-)


It broke just before Epsilon formed and hasn't worked since.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#833 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:22 am

GCANE wrote:Really nice hot tower.
That swirl lasted about a whole 5 seconds.

At least -95 C, if not -100 C.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#834 Postby Kazmit » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:22 am

Hmm, just like Delta- quick strengthening followed by shear disruption.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#835 Postby gfsperpendicular » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:34 am

Kazmit wrote:Hmm, just like Delta- quick strengthening followed by shear disruption.


More like Sally imo, favorable environment and ridiculously cold convection but disruptive northerly shear from a nearby anticyclone.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#836 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:42 am

Sneaky mid-level shear is saving the Yucatan again from a powerful hurricane. The HWRF showed this steady state before landfall on the Yucatan, so props to that model. The Gulf could still be favorable for re-intensification, but I have my doubts.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#837 Postby tiger_deF » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:49 am

Looks like Zeta is hungry and is "slurping up" the low level circulation by migrating new hot towers to the NW
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#838 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:52 am

I'm still going with a Cat 1 hurricane at some point in its life but it certainly could remain an ugly storm the whole time
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#839 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:09 am

Weather Dude wrote:I'm still going with a Cat 1 hurricane at some point in its life but it certainly could remain an ugly storm the whole time


I'm thinking an 80-85 knot peak in the Gulf, 55-60 knots at landfall.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#840 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:12 am

New hot tower overshooting the cirrus left from the previous tower.
Looks like its creating a warm-core feature on IR.
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