ATL: ZETA - Models

[Deshaunrob17]

GFS Para and HWRF models seem to be handling Zeta good... yesterday I did notice they both had shear affecting Zeta a bit today before it relaxes

[bella_may]

Might see them up the intensity in the next advisory. Been the story all season

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 12z...small west shift from 6z

[LowerAlabamaTider]

GFS 12z...small west shift from 6z

[url]https://i.ibb.co/PtQksw1/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-us-10.png [/url]

And around midnight ( 66 HRS ) right on MS/AL line Pasc/Mobile as what looks to still be a Cat 1?

[Steve]

GFS 12z...small west shift from 6z

[url]https://i.ibb.co/PtQksw1/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-us-10.png [/url]

And around midnight ( 66 HRS ) right on MS/AL line Pasc/Mobile as what looks to still be a Cat 1?

Did you try the closeup (GFS run on the storm like a hurricane model)? Landfall is 7pm on Wednesday night Grand Isle/Port Fourchon.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2612&fh=60

At midnight (1am), it's already in Perry County, MS near New Augusta.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2612&fh=66

[LowerAlabamaTider]

GFS 12z...small west shift from 6z

[url]https://i.ibb.co/PtQksw1/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-us-10.png [/url]

And around midnight ( 66 HRS ) right on MS/AL line Pasc/Mobile as what looks to still be a Cat 1?

Did you try the closeup (GFS run on the storm like a hurricane model)? Landfall is 7pm on Wednesday night Grand Isle/Port Fourchon.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2612&fh=60

At midnight (1am), it's already in Perry County, MS near New Augusta.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2612&fh=66

Well guess my view was a little off. Perry County ( New Augusta ) is about 75 miles NW up 98 from Mobile so close enough, and on the East side. Any slight nudge to the east and well you know.

[Steve]

Yeah for sure Tider. Also you have to know that the bulk of the weather is likely to be on the NE/E side of the system as it comes in. So you guys should get a little action down there. Only thing I worry about for y'all and those in Baldwin and Escambia is for the folks who have tarps up on their roofs. Sometimes wood can hold them down, but often they'll catch air and blow off. With some likely heavy rainfall (see QPF model link below), that could further damage some people's homes. Looks like the general area east of landfall could pick up between 1.75"-4" through Day 5 (bulk of it on Day 3)
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1603733893

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Yeah for sure Tider. Also you have to know that the bulk of the weather is likely to be on the NE/E side of the system as it comes in. So you guys should get a little action down there. Only thing I worry about for y'all and those in Baldwin and Escambia is for the folks who have tarps up on their roofs. Sometimes wood can hold them down, but often they'll catch air and blow off. With some likely heavy rainfall (see QPF model link below), that could further damage some people's homes. Looks like the general area east of landfall could pick up between 1.75"-4" through Day 5 (bulk of it on Day 3)
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1603733893

No doubt Brother!! Was out earlier this morning, and saw a couple of homes only a couple of miles from me with major roof damage, and looks like they were just beginning to have them repaired today. No way they finish them by Wednesday night. I feel so badly for everyone in that position!

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: east of 0Z run

[Wx_Warrior]

Euro 12z

[ColdMiser123]

12Z Euro: east of 0Z run

Also a good bit stronger, 971 just before landfall.

[NDG]

12Z Euro: east of 0Z run

But slightly more west of its earlier 06z run.
It has landfall in Terrebone Parish on the latest run.

[NDG]

Closer look at the 12z Euro, which is not good if it was to verify. It forecasts wide spread wind gusts in the 100-120 mph from St Tammany Parish & Hancock County on south to Terrebone and Lafourche Parish. Lets hope it is just being over aggressive.

[bella_may]

Closer look at the 12z Euro, which is not good if it was to verify. It forecasts wide spread wind gusts in the 100-120 mph from St Tammany Parish & Hancock County on south to Terrebone and Lafourche Parish. Lets hope it is just being over aggressive.

https://i.imgur.com/PDLxQDR.gif
https://i.imgur.com/HsJDwWP.png

That’s a pretty big wind field

[bella_may]

The euro usually underperforms on intensity. So this is a concerning trend

[SconnieCane]

The euro usually underperforms on intensity. So this is a concerning trend

Its resolution is usually too coarse to accurately resolve the true MSLP of a hurricane, but in my experience the gust product is a little overzealous. It's a bit like the surge forecast for a storm like Laura - worst-case scenario, these gusts are "possible" in this area, but the entire area shaded won't experience that magnitude.

[skyline385]

Euro has been getting good intensity estimates since the upgrade to 9 km grid. Zeta is not going to explosively intensify in current gulf conditions so the models should be pretty close on estimates.

[bella_may]

18Z GFS is almost identical in strength but slightly east of 12Z. A few miles either way is gonna make a huge difference for NOLA. Doesn’t look good at all for coastal MS or Alabama

[bella_may]

18Z HWRF has a borderline cat 3 headed into NOLA

[Blown Away]

Fortunately Zeta should be moving at a good clip 20+ mph at landfall. The lingering storms even Cat 1/2 can be very destructive, fast storms usually manageable.