ATL: ZETA - Models

[Stormcenter]

That would be insane.

18Z HWRF has a borderline cat 3 headed into NOLA

[aspen]

18z HWRF has a tiny bit of strengthening before landfall, and exits into the Gulf around 12-15z tomorrow with a good enough moisture field to allow it to intensify into an 85-90 kt system. Shear does win out and shove dry air into the core, but Zeta holds it own just long enough to become a slightly stronger hurricane.

[Blinhart]

So, what I understand is that the storm should start moving N/NNE when it hits the Cold Front coming down from Texas, so it all depends on when and where this happens on where it will make landfall. Is this correct to assume?

[tolakram]

18z HWRF

[PTrackerLA]

18z Euro, let's hope it's overdoing intensity with a 962mb landfall

[Blown Away]

18z Euro, let's hope it's overdoing intensity with a 962mb landfall

https://imgur.com/Q63BS0e

Positive is the euro showing @20-25 mph at landfall, so the event will be real fast.

[Nimbus]

Winds out of the east in Cozumel at around 40 MPH, doesn't look too bad and will be inland by morning.
It will take 24 hours or so to re-intensify once it comes off the north coast after a fairly long trek over the Yucatan.
If it is moving as fast as the Euro is predicting, residential NOLA doesn't want to end up to the east side of the track.

[Stormcenter]

Latest GFS is right over NOLA with 974 mb pressure and
landfall late Wed.

[skyline385]

0Z HWRF initialization looks on point, Yucatan landfall at 976mb.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF continues the strengthening until landfall trend. Hits at 970mb. Interesting...

[Uptownmeow]

Getting a little nervy here in New Orleans with these models being a little more intense and are they a little more west ?

Local mets are saying it shifted a little East but I’m not seeing that but I guess that’s why I’m not a meteorologist.

[Steve]

HWRF continues the strengthening until landfall trend. Hits at 970mb. Interesting...

Yeah both HMON and HWRF cross the city. We’ve been close a dozen times, but I think Bill ‘03 and Florence ‘88 were the last centers to cross. Maybe Olga last year, but I missed that. And inconsequential Hermine ‘98. Could be an intense 6-8 hours.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF continues the strengthening until landfall trend. Hits at 970mb. Interesting...

Yeah both HMON and HWRF cross the city. We’ve been close a dozen times, but I think Bill ‘03 and Florence ‘88 were the last centers to cross. Maybe Olga last year, but I missed that. And inconsequential Hermine ‘98. Could be an intense 6-8 hours.

Good luck out there. Of course we still have to wait to see how it holds up after the Yucatan but the trends are concerning

[kevin]

00z HWRF landfalls as a minimal cat 3 . HMON is less aggressive, but still landfalls at hurricane strength.

[SconnieCane]

00z HWRF landfalls as a minimal cat 3 . HMON is less aggressive, but still landfalls at hurricane strength.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020102700/hwrf_mslp_wind_28L_16.png

I'm not sure if 971 MB would get it to Cat. 3. If observations are correct, it just landfalled in the Yucatan as a mid-range Cat. 1 with a pressure in the upper 970s. Still nothing to sneeze at.

[kevin]

00z HWRF landfalls as a minimal cat 3 . HMON is less aggressive, but still landfalls at hurricane strength.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020102700/hwrf_mslp_wind_28L_16.png

I'm not sure if 971 MB would get it to Cat. 3. If observations are correct, it just landfalled in the Yucatan as a mid-range Cat. 1 with a pressure in the upper 970s. Still nothing to sneeze at.

Yes true, I was referring to the 97.2 kt wind prediction in the top right corner, but I'm also sceptical whether 971 mbar is enough to actually reach wind speeds like that. But indeed either way even HMON's cat 1 landfall is nothing to sneeze at.

[kevin]

HMON trends stronger this run and makes use of the unusually favorable Gulf conditions to deepen all the way down to 967 mbar before landfall. Landfalls as a cat 2/high end cat 1.

[bella_may]

Most GFS ensembles are east of NOLA. We’ll see if it changes

[kevin]

06z HWRF shows a very similar story to HMON with a peak of 961 mbar before landfall and even wind speeds up to 93.9 kts when it's inland. If I would live in that area I would prepare for a high-end cat 2 landfall, better safe than sorry.

[aspen]

06z HWRF has Zeta develop a new, larger eye by this afternoon/tonight. It’s done well with short-term structural predictions and has a pretty close simulated IR presentation at 12z to what is seen right now, so it’s probably at least somewhat right.