WPAC: ATSANI - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

90W.INVEST

[Hayabusa]

Finally here huh? Could this be strongest of the successive storms?

[Hayabusa]

Very strong ensembles.

[aspen]

Could this finally become the strong Marianas typhoon we’ve all been waiting for? 99W had that chance, and while it seems likely to be yet another hurricane-intensity landfall in the Philippines (they just can’t catch a break this month), models have been trending to something more like Molave.

[aspen]

If 90W becomes TS Atsani as soon as the GFS is expecting, it’ll be rather south and within SSTs as high as 31C, capable of supporting a sub-890 mbar system. It could very easily go nuclear if it’s able to develop a core and be within a favorable wind environment.

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 201027 1200 7.2N 152.6E WPAC 15 1008

[euro6208]

Recap the 00z EURO run. Peaks it at 939 mb with a recurving track east of Okinawa.

[euro6208]

GFS 06z starts development in just 60 hours now. Peaks it at 927 mb, lowest pressure so far before a possibly Okinawa landfall.

[aspen]

Go look at the HWRF-P run for 99W. It shows 90W off in the corner; it’s a Cat1 on Thursday night and explodes into a 930s system by Halloween, within SSTs of up to 30.5C. The HWRF is often hyper-aggressive in its early runs with newly forming systems, but for once this doesn’t seem that outlandish.

Also, assuming 99W forms first, when 90W becomes a designated TC with a name, it’ll be designated 2020 (20th TC of ‘20). Oh boy....

[euro6208]

Oh dang

[dexterlabio]

Go look at the HWRF-P run for 99W. It shows 90W off in the corner; it’s a Cat1 on Thursday night and explodes into a 930s system by Halloween, within SSTs of up to 30.5C. The HWRF is often hyper-aggressive in its early runs with newly forming systems, but for once this doesn’t seem that outlandish.

Also, assuming 99W forms first, when 90W becomes a designated TC with a name, it’ll be designated 2020 (20th TC of ‘20). Oh boy....

It could be the highlight of the 2020 WPAC season...but I do hope it recurves out to sea because SE Asia and East Asia already had much unfortunate share of TC landfalls.

[ElectricStorm]

A lot of La Niña years tend to produce a monster over here. Could this be the one? We are about to find out...

[aspen]

12z GFS: still develops Atsani below the latitude of Guam and bombs it out into a major by 120 hours.

[euro6208]

150 hours bombs out to 923 mb.

[euro6208]

12z peak of 921 mb and keeps it below -930 for 3 days.

[Hayabusa]

ECMWF 12Z peaks it as 921 mb, and makes it approach to Northern Luzon at the end of the run as 925 mb

[ElectricStorm]

ECMWF 12Z peaks it as 921 mb, and makes it approach to Northern Luzon at the end of the run as 925 mb
https://i.imgur.com/dPiwKE7.png

921mb from the EURO is big yikes

[aspen]

18z GFS continues with a TS late in the week, a typhoon on Halloween, and a major the next day.

[euro6208]

A drop of 40 mb in between frames in 168-192 hours?

[ElectricStorm]

Weaker on 0z GFS but slams Luzon as a Cat 4. Track resembles Mangkhut 2018.