Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/AVONixy.gif

Where’s my front????

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/AVONixy.gif

Where’s my front????

Anything after 100 hrs is fantasy but it still managed to bump into Florida’s force field and recurve NE.

[TheStormExpert]

Why do you have a hard time seeing this as a threat to the U.S.? Teleconnections do not support an East Coast trough like the GFS and GFS-P keep insisting on. So a threat to Florida or places further west is most likely.

Simply put, if I'm placing a wager, I'd put my money down that this either buries into Central America or it gets swept out across Cuba. It's very hard to go against the odds. Not saying it is impossible (Hurricane Kate 1985), just not likely.

*Kate was not a Caribbean storm. She developed just N of the GA's and moved WEST into the GOM. Nothing in modern history shows a HURRICANE moving out of the Caribbean and hitting the CONUS in November.

Welp, since you’ll think it won’t come our way I think it’s safe to say we’re out of the woods!

But on a serious note, have any of the storms forming in the Western Caribbean this month followed climatology favored tracks? No I didn’t think so.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has this going into Lenny mode...

[Hurricaneman]

the 0zGFS has a repeat of Lenny from 1999

[LarryWx]

0Z GEFS:

[LarryWx]

0Z EPS : 30% are sub 1000 mb on what's often a genesis shy ensemble in the W Car by Nov 7th! That's only 11 days away!

[Shell Mound]

0Z EPS : 30% are sub 1000 mb on what's often a genesis shy ensemble in the W Car by Nov 7th! That's only 11 days away!

https://i.imgur.com/S4Cq93l.png

Most of those members are unusually far to the west for a robust system on November 9 in that location. As if early November is early October...

[aspen]

All of the globals now have a weak slop system. It’s odd that every attempt to tighten up results in it weakening again. This might be another mid-range stumble like with Zeta.

[SFLcane]

0Z EPS : 30% are sub 1000 mb on what's often a genesis shy ensemble in the W Car by Nov 7th! That's only 11 days away!

https://i.imgur.com/S4Cq93l.png

That’s a mid August early September signal for so late in the season also west of 80w. 00z CMC and 06z gfs almost all but dropped development. This Being 11 days out this is still fantasy range

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1321036968503906304

[SFLcane]

06z GEFS still quite active.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1321069364959989761

[SconnieCane]

All of the globals now have a weak slop system. It’s odd that every attempt to tighten up results in it weakening again. This might be another mid-range stumble like with Zeta.

Ensembles > Ops at this point.

[aspen]

All of the globals now have a weak slop system. It’s odd that every attempt to tighten up results in it weakening again. This might be another mid-range stumble like with Zeta.

Ensembles > Ops at this point.

Once the AEW enters the Caribbean late this week, it’ll be down to nowcasting. There are a lot of solutions for how this could develop — quick genesis around Nov1 in the east-central Caribbean, slow gyre genesis near CA around Nov5, and everything in between.

[HurricaneEnzo]

We need a 'Wrong Way Lenny 2.0' to really round this 2020 season out. Minus the damage he did of course.

[TheStormExpert]

All of the globals now have a weak slop system. It’s odd that every attempt to tighten up results in it weakening again. This might be another mid-range stumble like with Zeta.

Ensembles > Ops at this point.

We just went down this road with pre-Zeta and many other systems this year. Models are worthless until something gets going down there. Wake me up when there’s an actual area of interest getting organized.

[Deshaunrob17]

:roll:

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1321036968503906304?

I've said this on Saturday, I won't be surprised if models drop development this week but then come back with development at the very last minute- this has been the trend this year

[gatorcane]

Para:

[SFLcane]

Para:

https://i.postimg.cc/K806MGhq/gfsp-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-300.gif

Seems to be trending westward .