ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1061 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:17 am

9:15 AM CDT

Center of Zeta location: N21°20'18", W89°16'49"
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1062 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:18 am

I lost the number of times that a strong ridge has place itself over FL at the right time to protect us. I wonder if our luck will run out before the season ends.

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1063 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:18 am

What does that person mean when he says SELA only got a glancing blow from Gustav? Baton Rouge got a direct hit and we are considered SELA. It isn't just New Orleans in SELA.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1064 Postby Javlin » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:21 am

jconsor wrote:I don't believe Nate is a good analog. Zeta is likely to pack a much more severe punch than Nate.

Nate was never really able to tighten up because of its *consistently high forward speed* all the way from Yucatan to N. Gulf Coast, along with interaction with a surface trough to its NW that limited convergence. In the case of Zeta, its acceleration close to landfall will likely limit/prevent weakening that might otherwise occur due to increased shear and cooler shelf waters near the coast.

Javlin wrote:
TallyTracker wrote:
. Hopefully it will slow intensification but that is not always the case.

I was about to post something to that effect it might inhibit some strengthening.I am not to worried ATTM about this one I remember Nate from 2017 fast mover it was over and done with quickly it was moving 20mph this one may be faster.Nate was a small storm but still I have seen thunderstorms with more punch than that one minus the surge we shall see regardless the trees will not have a long thrashing.


I am sure it will just thinking forward speed will inhibit the damage that a slower storm does I think WX57 calculated 20/25mph over land from the NHC plots?
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1065 Postby storm4u » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:25 am

Zeta might give us some snow in Southern NewEngland
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1066 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:25 am

The outer band of Zeta is very impressive.

Image
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1067 Postby Steve » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:25 am

BigB0882 wrote:What does that person mean when he says SELA only got a glancing blow from Gustav? Baton Rouge got a direct hit and we are considered SELA. It isn't just New Orleans in SELA.


Center passed to the south of BR, but you guys got in (I think) the NW/N and NE part of the center of convection. We were in Austin, but everyone I know who went up to Baton Rouge said it was madness. I always figured Baton Rouge was more South LA than SELA though if you quartered up the state, y'all would be SE.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane ... _track.png
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1068 Postby us89 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:28 am

Javlin wrote:I think WX57 calculated 20/25mph over land from the NHC plots?


Even faster than that. The NHC forecast maps suggest Zeta will spend about a day traversing the southeast US from LA to DE. That's a little more than 1000 miles in 24 hours, or about 45 mph.
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ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1069 Postby skyline385 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:30 am

us89 wrote:
Javlin wrote:I think WX57 calculated 20/25mph over land from the NHC plots?


Even faster than that. The NHC forecast maps suggest Zeta will spend about a day traversing the southeast US from LA to DE. That's a little more than 1000 miles in 24 hours, or about 45 mph.


You are averaging both a period of slow motion and a period of fast motion here, it's going to be slow to moderately paced entering LA and eventually speed up.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1070 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:38 am


Zeta probably wins the prise for “most symmetric outflow” observed in the Atlantic basin so far in 2020. It is certainly competing with Laura. Given the fact that Zeta retains its inner core, it will likely intensify more rapidly than expected in the short term, now that the centre is finally moving offshore and entering the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. The upper-air pattern, juxtaposed with ample moisture and decent SSTs, will certainly support a potential major hurricane in the short term. As of now, my best estimate for the peak intensity would be 95–105 knots, with winds at landfall likely verifying in the range of 85–95 knots.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1071 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:46 am

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1072 Postby tiger_deF » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:47 am

Zeta looks very impressive, but it's inner core has warming convection and doesn't look too potent. I think it will take 6-12 hours before we really start the strengthening, as the inner core needs to rebuild first
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1073 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:48 am

NDG wrote:I lost the number of times that a strong ridge has place itself over FL at the right time to protect us. I wonder if our luck will run out before the season ends.

https://i.imgur.com/s8YHwho.gif


It has always shown up at the right time this year that is for sure. In any other year, Zeta probably would have been a Florida issue based on climo.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1074 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:55 am

Shell Mound wrote:

Zeta probably wins the prise for “most symmetric outflow” observed in the Atlantic basin so far in 2020. It is certainly competing with Laura. Given the fact that Zeta retains its inner core, it will likely intensify more rapidly than expected in the short term, now that the centre is finally moving offshore and entering the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. The upper-air pattern, juxtaposed with ample moisture and decent SSTs, will certainly support a potential major hurricane in the short term. As of now, my best estimate for the peak intensity would be 95–105 knots, with winds at landfall likely verifying in the range of 85–95 knots.



stop trying to hype the storm, will be a cat 1
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1075 Postby Jr0d » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:57 am

I am impressed how far west it is and still going. It seems like we have a synoptic set up that is more like late September, certainly not late October.

Zeta's core looks intact, I definitely think there is a decent window to strengthen before the shear hits.

I have been wrong about this storm over and over again. Yesterday morning when the center was exposed, I thought there was no way it could reach hurricane strength, I thought there was no way it would make it past 90°W.....
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1076 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:58 am

Very impressive structure for a storm that spent a night over the Yucatan.

Image
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1077 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:00 am

:flag:
stormlover2013 wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:

Zeta probably wins the prise for “most symmetric outflow” observed in the Atlantic basin so far in 2020. It is certainly competing with Laura. Given the fact that Zeta retains its inner core, it will likely intensify more rapidly than expected in the short term, now that the centre is finally moving offshore and entering the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. The upper-air pattern, juxtaposed with ample moisture and decent SSTs, will certainly support a potential major hurricane in the short term. As of now, my best estimate for the peak intensity would be 95–105 knots, with winds at landfall likely verifying in the range of 85–95 knots.



stop trying to hype the storm, will be a cat 1

Most models I have seen have this land falling in the 970s so probably closer to cat2. It wouldn’t be major deviation to see it peak at low cat3 before then
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1078 Postby tiger_deF » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:01 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Very impressive structure for a storm that spent a night over the Yucatan.

https://i.imgur.com/8NiYklF.jpg


Easily the most expansive outflow in the Gulf this season, signs of a potential upper level environment. Personally I am waiting to see the interactions between Zeta and the powerful shortwave that has been moving across the western US, could produce some beautiful banding
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1079 Postby 3090 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:02 am

stormlover2013 wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:

Zeta probably wins the prise for “most symmetric outflow” observed in the Atlantic basin so far in 2020. It is certainly competing with Laura. Given the fact that Zeta retains its inner core, it will likely intensify more rapidly than expected in the short term, now that the centre is finally moving offshore and entering the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. The upper-air pattern, juxtaposed with ample moisture and decent SSTs, will certainly support a potential major hurricane in the short term. As of now, my best estimate for the peak intensity would be 95–105 knots, with winds at landfall likely verifying in the range of 85–95 knots.



stop trying to hype the storm, will be a cat 1


And you know this for sure? Based on what?
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1080 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:04 am

3090 wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:Zeta probably wins the prise for “most symmetric outflow” observed in the Atlantic basin so far in 2020. It is certainly competing with Laura. Given the fact that Zeta retains its inner core, it will likely intensify more rapidly than expected in the short term, now that the centre is finally moving offshore and entering the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. The upper-air pattern, juxtaposed with ample moisture and decent SSTs, will certainly support a potential major hurricane in the short term. As of now, my best estimate for the peak intensity would be 95–105 knots, with winds at landfall likely verifying in the range of 85–95 knots.



stop trying to hype the storm, will be a cat 1


And you know this for sure? Based on what?


by looking at the data, the atmosphere, and what the models are agreeing on.
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