ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like Zeta is getting pretty close to pulling some really moisture laden air into its circulation. I think another couple of hours and this starts to take off.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
On approach, latest GFS.
Looks like its going to stay away from the worst part of the Rossby Wave.
If that ARWB over FL moves more west, then intensity could be higher than currently expected.

Looks like its going to stay away from the worst part of the Rossby Wave.
If that ARWB over FL moves more west, then intensity could be higher than currently expected.

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I’ve haven’t looked at this thread in a while, but I’ve noticed a marked increase in hype surrounding the intensity of Zeta. Can anyone explain to me why? Are the HWRF and HMON goin’ nuts with it? Looking at the IR and satellite it looks like a skeleton, but I guess that huge outer band could help fend off any dry air that tries to disrupt the core.
Other than that, what is leading people to think that this has a shot at MH status? (This isn’t meant to be sarcastic, I’m genuinely asking)
Other than that, what is leading people to think that this has a shot at MH status? (This isn’t meant to be sarcastic, I’m genuinely asking)
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like a small tower starting to popup on the CoC.
That warm-core feature is still there.
That warm-core feature is still there.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The llc looks quite far north of the mlc... again.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
WE are well enough right of track.. looks to have been moving NNW the last 3 to 4 hours. expect east shifts..
The line is the last 3 to 4 hour motion

The line is the last 3 to 4 hour motion

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
LLC is exposed again. Are we sure this didn’t just take a gulp of dry air?
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:LLC is exposed again. Are we sure this didn’t just take a gulp of dry air?
Stormcenter wrote:Satellite presentation is improving.
The duality of storm2k
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Expect east shifts?
I’m not sure about that, the models look
pretty locked it as they did recently with Delta.
I’m not sure about that, the models look
pretty locked it as they did recently with Delta.
Aric Dunn wrote:WE are well enough right of track.. looks to have been moving NNW the last 3 to 4 hours. expect east shifts..
The line is the last 3 to 4 hour motion
https://i.ibb.co/WByxVMX/Capture.png
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
So true. Lol
tiger_deF wrote:aspen wrote:LLC is exposed again. Are we sure this didn’t just take a gulp of dry air?Stormcenter wrote:Satellite presentation is improving.
The duality of storm2k
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
What a difference 12 hours (and the Yucatan) makes




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Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
tiger_deF wrote:aspen wrote:LLC is exposed again. Are we sure this didn’t just take a gulp of dry air?Stormcenter wrote:Satellite presentation is improving.
The duality of storm2k
Hehe they are both right. While exposed, the LLC is very clearly aligned, well centered, and has significant banding surrounding it that it didn’t have before landfall.
All it needs it consistent convection to pop into it which honestly will happen sooner rather than later.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:WE are well enough right of track.. looks to have been moving NNW the last 3 to 4 hours. expect east shifts..
The line is the last 3 to 4 hour motion
https://i.ibb.co/WByxVMX/Capture.png
Official track is still east of the 12Z GFS and HWRF landfall.
Models would have the strong side of a ~970 mb hurricane eyewall over NOLA, while the official track has the weak side of the storm over NOLA which could be ~30 knots less.
If you are in the cone be prepared for a hurricane regardless of course.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
ClarCari wrote:tiger_deF wrote:aspen wrote:LLC is exposed again. Are we sure this didn’t just take a gulp of dry air?Stormcenter wrote:Satellite presentation is improving.
The duality of storm2k
Hehe they are both right. While exposed, the LLC is very clearly aligned, well centered, and has significant banding surrounding it that it didn’t have before landfall.
All it needs it consistent convection to pop into it which honestly will happen sooner rather than later.
Storms take 18 to 24 hours to properly recover from landfall, with few exceptions. I'm not sure we can tell what will happen for a short while, but the best intensity model (HWRF) shows a steady state for 12 to 18 hours before steady strengthening until landfall.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
EquusStorm wrote:What a difference 12 hours (and the Yucatan) makes
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/765039770606370877/770721717119090778/GOES06502020301gKEwQd.jpg
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/765039770606370877/770721717357510666/GOES18002020301nKlxtR.jpg
So thankful for the Yucatan pulling the punch out of Zeta! Could you imagine the hurricanes that would develop without the Yucatan being there?!?
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Definitely tilted from North to South with the LLC to the MLC. Also appears the LLC to be tracking more NNW, maybe why it is tilted.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I’m now forecast to get up to 3 inches of snow on Friday from the jumbled mess that will be the combined remnants of Hurricane Zeta and Snowstorm Bill.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Obviously being over land disrupted it quite a bit. But the mlc is clearly south of the llc, and until that rectifies it will struggle a bit.


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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Inflow Banding features starting to look better on the vis sat loops, with some increased convection slowly starting to build in the northern quad above the core, maybe a much needed kick start coming?
Last edited by Frank P on Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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