ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SconnieCane]

Is that area of green (warm spot) on IR with the hot towers popping around the edge of it about to be a great big eye?

[sponger]

Looks quite healthy! NHC may need to up the intensity forecast to 100.

[JamesRainier]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?


297
NOUS42 KNHC 261540
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON 26 OCTOBER 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z OCTOBER 2020
TCPOD NUMBER.....20-153

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ZETA
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71,
A. 27/2200Z A. 27/2330Z,28/0230Z,0530Z
B. NOAA2 1428A ZETA B. AFXXX 1528A ZETA
C. 27/2000Z C. 27/2130Z
D. 23.0N 90.5W D. 23.2N 90.7W
E. 27/2130Z TO 28/0230Z E. 27/2300Z TO 28/0530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 42
A. 28/0830Z,1130Z,1430Z A. 28/1000Z
B. AFXXX 1628A ZETA B. NOAA2 1728A ZETA
C. 28/0645Z C. 28/0800Z
D. 25.0N 91.6W D. 25.3N 91.7W
E. 28/0800Z TO 28/1430Z E. 28/0930Z TO 28/1430Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. AN ADDITIONAL NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION,
DEPARTING KLAL AT 28/2000Z.

[FLpanhandle91]

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 91.2W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

[tiger_deF]

Looks like ADT found the warm spot, raw T numbers are up to 5.6

[ColdMiser123]

From the 11 pm discussion, bold is my emphasis:

Satellite images show that Zeta is becoming better organized tonight
with a ragged eye feature now present, plenty of deep convection and
a more symmetric appearance. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft has found increasing winds on this flight, recently
recording peak flight-level winds of 65 kt and a minimum pressure of
around 990 mb. The initial wind speed is raised to 60 kt on the
basis of the wind data.

The improving cloud pattern of Zeta is usually one that favors
intensification in the short term. In addition, microwave data from
a couple hours ago indicated that a 37 GHz low-level ring was
present, which also can be a harbinger of strengthening, and
sometimes that strengthening is on the rapid side. Since the storm
remains over warm water with fairly light shear, the NHC forecast
still anticipates Zeta regaining hurricane intensity within the next
6 hours and making a second landfall as a hurricane. The new NHC
forecast is a little higher than the previous one, remaining on the
high side of the guidance. After landfall, Zeta is likely to become
an extratropical cyclone while it approaches the eastern United
States in a couple of days, and become absorbed by the same frontal
system.

[ElectricStorm]

From the NHC disco
In addition, microwave data from
a couple hours ago indicated that a 37 GHz low-level ring was
present, which also can be a harbinger of strengthening, and
sometimes that strengthening is on the rapid side.

[Ken711]

Code: Select all

Similar to the last forecast, the official track forecast was moved slightly westward during the first 24 hours, not too dissimilar from a consensus of the latest GFS, UKMET and ECMWF forecasts.

INIT  28/0300Z 23.8N  91.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 26.0N  91.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 30.2N  89.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/1200Z 35.0N  84.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0000Z 39.5N  74.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[JamesRainier]

....what is AF309?...

https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/pr ... rbird.html

[Stormgodess]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1321286549497995265

[Javlin]

.6N .4W to which it looked like by sat presentation looking a little flat on the W side and the envelope pointing more N.

[underthwx]

AF309 enroute to Zeta.

My guess is they'll find a hurricane.

Hey Kyle...may I ask you....what is AF309?...

It's the Air Force recon mission. They are always AF30X format

Gotcha.....thanks...I'm a bit embarrassed....lol...

[tiger_deF]

For the most part this season it feels like we have been tracking systems that have been huge blobs of convection, waiting for some sort of eye feature or banding pattern to emerge that would signify strengthening. Tracking Zeta right now is the exact opposite; we've had a warm core feature and impressive outflow/banding all day, we are just waiting for the convection to catch up

[skyline385]

The earlier convection burst on the north side has it pretty much wrapped up now

[CyclonicFury]

Recon data finally transmitting again. Pressure seems to be fairly stable on each pass since the plane arrived. Maximum FL wind has been 66 kt with no SFMRs greater than 50 kt.

[skyline385]

Thats so weird, such a gorgeous structure and still so weak...

[tiger_deF]

Thats so weird, such a gorgeous structure and still so weak...

Yeah I am actually shocked, I was thinking this storm was well on it's way to major status according to the sat images. Looks better than Delta did when it was a Cat 2 hurricane. Either the pressure is going to start dropping like a rock or appearances really are deceiving here

Raw ADT numbers are also up to 5.9, this feels like bizzaro world

[MississippiWx]

Thats so weird, such a gorgeous structure and still so weak...

Yeah I am actually shocked, I was thinking this storm was well on it's way to major status according to the sat images. Looks better than Delta did when it was a Cat 2 hurricane. Either the pressure is going to start dropping like a rock or appearances really are deceiving here

Raw ADT numbers are also up to 5.9, this feels like bizzaro world

Deep convection near the center is lacking still, but it’s trying to fire up again now.

[Steve]

Maybe it’s late October and conditions are a little out of whack. NHC takes it to 75k tomorrow around 7am which should be the peak. NAM 3km wants to continue to deepen up to landfall and we’ll see what the other models do. HRRR does too but it’s mid 980’s. Light breezes 10-12 here (guessing SE) with some milky haze. I feel like things will get going early dayside tomorrow and peak out in the afternoon and evening. If I had to bet, I’d expect some gusts to 70 here in town. Isaac was probably last (one gust near 60 in Olga) storm to come through with this level of punch. With the COC likely passing close or overhead, maybe some people will get more than they bargained for. Look out for strong winds north and east of the system. You’d think Plaquemines and St Bernard and maybe St Tammany over to Hancock and Harrison Cos will see the highest winds overall. Probably will get some strong gusts in southern Mobile Co as well.

I’m ready to go and surprisingly not as jacked up as I probably should be. Way more calm for now. I expect power to be out by the afternoon, but even if they don’t get it fixed for a couple days, looks to be in the upper 60’s by Friday. So eh. Who needs power?

[tiger_deF]

Recon is finding near-hurricane force FL winds all dozens of miles from the core of the storm, in the vertical part of an upcoming NE/SW pass. This is gonna have a massive swath of winds