WPAC: ATSANI - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

Luzon is a really acting like a TC magnet right now.

[doomhaMwx]

I wonder if models will trend more south over the next several days and this ends up hitting Bicol again, following Molave and pre-Goni.

[Hayabusa]

00Z ECMWF plows through Northern Luzon as a STY

[euro6208]

Rapidly intensifying typhoon 922 mb at landfall.

[Hayabusa]

ECMWF 905 mb peak before landfall but the initialization is around 155E+, current location is around 151.8E

[doomhaMwx]

00Z Euro simulated IR 8 days out.

[styzeb]

00Z Euro simulated IR 8 days out.

https://i.imgur.com/pJtbKss.png
https://i.imgur.com/dq6ah4A.png

Looks somewhat like Katrina.

[Hayabusa]

6Z GFS more south, landfall area looks like 00Z ECMWF

ABPW10 PGTW 280930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/280930Z-290600ZOCT2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280752ZOCT2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280751ZOCT2020//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0N
151.0E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 280641Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A DISORGANIZED AREA OF PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION. INVEST
90W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 90W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 36-72HRS AS
IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

GFS seem to be siding with HWRF's quick development. Has a TS on Friday. Slams Luzon hard.

[euro6208]

[aspen]

This is the most aggressive I’ve seen the models be since Hagibis or Kammuri. If the Euro and UKMET both get below 900 mbar again, we might actually be looking at a true beast on the horizon.

[euro6208]

The global models are off the chart with this and 22W.

[euro6208]

Eerily.

Last time we got Goni and Atsani, they coexisted at the same time back in 2015. Goni peaked at Cat 4 while Atsani's debut peaked at Cat 5.

2020 looks to continue that trend in almost the same location.

[aspen]

Eerily.

Last time we got Goni and Atsani, they coexisted at the same time back in 2015. Goni peaked at Cat 4 while Atsani's debut peaked at Cat 5.

2020 looks to continue that trend in almost the same location.

https://i.imgur.com/oNhK6PN.gif

We might see that on Halloween, and both systems will be even closer together. Talk about a weird way to finish off the month.

[ElectricStorm]

Eerily.

Last time we got Goni and Atsani, they coexisted at the same time back in 2015. Goni peaked at Cat 4 while Atsani's debut peaked at Cat 5.

2020 looks to continue that trend in almost the same location.

https://i.imgur.com/oNhK6PN.gif

Those were my first 2 storms to ever track... Both were at peak when I first found them and once I saw Atsani at Cat 5 I was like dang that's insane imma track storms now lol. Pretty weird we've already gone all the way through the list. Went by fast

[1900hurricane]

Morning ASCAT composite shows a broad circulation starting to come together and establish itself.

[aspen]

Thunderstorms have become better concentrated today, and it now looks like a low beginning to develop into a TC. I wish there were HWRF runs for this, but the HWRF-P for Goni hasn’t updated in a full day and there are no runs for 90W.

[Hayabusa]

GFS 18Z Cagayan landfall as a very strong typhoon

[1900hurricane]

Slowly coming together. Unlike Goni, this one has quite the large footprint.

[Hayabusa]

909 mb