ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Not quite visible yet, but here's the link.

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso1_30.html

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html

[HurricaneAndre2008]

28/1130 UTC 25.7N 91.6W T5.5/5.5 ZETA -- Atlantic

[Iceresistance]

AF307 finds Extrapolated pressure of 975.7 MB

[3090]

28/1130 UTC 25.7N 91.6W T5.5/5.5 ZETA -- Atlantic

Whoa there!

[us89]

Whether the current short-term motion is a wobble or not, it looks like the ultimate track has been shifted slightly further right of previous forecasts. The NWS offices in Birmingham and Peachtree City both expanded their tropical storm watches into the next layer of counties to the east this morning.

Wind probabilities have also gone up substantially around here, with Atlanta at a 42% chance of TS winds on the latest advisory. With those kinds of values I would not be surprised to see that watch upgraded into our first TS warning since Irma.

[Iceresistance]

28/1130 UTC 25.7N 91.6W T5.5/5.5 ZETA -- Atlantic

That is 115 mph CAT 3 storm, Recon is only reporting winds up to 90 mph CAT 1 right now.

[3090]

AF307 finds Extrapolated pressure of 975.7 MB

That is a 15mb drop since 8pm CDT IA last evening. Pretty significant.

[3090]

28/1130 UTC 25.7N 91.6W T5.5/5.5 ZETA -- Atlantic

That is 115 mph CAT 3 storm, Recon is only reporting winds up to 90 mph CAT 1 right now.

Winds will eventually catch up IF it has enough time before landfall.

[Dean4Storms]

AF307 finds Extrapolated pressure of 975.7 MB

This might be good news for New Orleans as I would expect a stronger storm to move more into the Ridge to its east. Just 25 miles further east of a center track than currently forecast would be good news for New Orleans as not much wind is getting recorded by Recon on the Western side of Zeta. Now that is worse news for MS Coast and Mobile on the flip side though.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

TXNT21 KNES 281143
TCSNTL

A. 28L (ZETA)

B. 28/1130Z

C. 25.7N

D. 91.6W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY AND EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT OF
5.5 INCLUDING A +0.5 EYE-ADJ. MET AND PT ARE 5.0 AND FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE

[Dean4Storms]

Whether the current short-term motion is a wobble or not, it looks like the ultimate track has been shifted slightly further right of previous forecasts. The NWS offices in Birmingham and Peachtree City both expanded their tropical storm watches into the next layer of counties to the east this morning.

Wind probabilities have also gone up substantially around here, with Atlanta at a 42% chance of TS winds on the latest advisory. With those kinds of values I would not be surprised to see that watch upgraded into our first TS warning since Irma.

That falls in line with the shift eastward by a county down here at the coast with TS Warnings, went from to Okaloosa/Walton to now Walton/Bay.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Zeta looking pretty tough this morning...be safe everyone.

Just to follow up on the climo discussion from earlier this week - would Zeta be the first hurricane to make landfall in the northern gulf this late in the year?

Hurricane Kate 1985 made landfall on panhandle mid-late November.

[wxman57]

28/1130 UTC 25.7N 91.6W T5.5/5.5 ZETA -- Atlantic

That is 115 mph CAT 3 storm, Recon is only reporting winds up to 90 mph CAT 1 right now.

I would tend to trust actual obs vs. satellite estimates.

[supercane4867]

T5.5 seems like a stretch as eye temp is quite unstable. Using IR presentation over time in the past 6 hours would yield T5.0 at best.

[xironman]

AF307 finds Extrapolated pressure of 975.7 MB

This might be good news for New Orleans as I would expect a stronger storm to move more into the Ridge to its east. Just 25 miles further east of a center track than currently forecast would be good news for New Orleans as not much wind is getting recorded by Recon on the Western side of Zeta. Now that is worse news for MS Coast and Mobile on the flip side though.

Looks like there is very little difference in the layers.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[cheezyWXguy]

Zeta is starting look a bit like delta as it came in. Given that it’s pressure is still coming down a bit, it will probably peak in the next couple hours before maintaining to landfall

[HurricaneEnzo]

28/1130 UTC 25.7N 91.6W T5.5/5.5 ZETA -- Atlantic

That is 115 mph CAT 3 storm, Recon is only reporting winds up to 90 mph CAT 1 right now.

Saw something similiar with Arthur in 2014. Different parts of the basin but T numbers were showing Cat 3 while recon confirmed Arthur was only in the Cat 1 range at the time. Winds will likely play catch up however. Maybe not to Cat 3 but Cat 2 is looking highly likely.

[GCANE]

Eye contracting a bit, 15nm

[kevin]

Wow those ADT numbers are very extreme. As Wxman57 already said better to trust actual measurements over satellite estimates, but is it still possible for cat 3 winds to mix down to the surface before landfall? If it had 6 more hours I'd say it's doable, but with the limited time until landfall a cat 2 seems to be its max. strength imo.

[xironman]

Looking at the GFS, Zeta goes from New Orleans to Richmond VA in 18hrs, about as fast as you can drive it.