ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

One of the best looking CAT 1, low end CAT 2 hurricanes I have seen in a very long time. I have seen CAT 3 storms look not as good and have seen other CAT 1 and CAT 2 hurricanes look so bad, they looked like summer tstorms.

You all set? I'm just hanging back at home doing work as it comes in and waiting. So far some sprinkles and light winds. We'll commence the hurricane party this afternoon.

Current Pressures from West to East

Houma - 29.81 (10:47am)
Galliano - 29.82 (10:35am)
Belle Chasse - 29.85 (9:55am)
Boothville - 29.85 (10:35am)
Slidell - 29.87 (9:53am)
Gulfport - 29.90 (9:53am)
Biloxi - 29.90 (9:56am)
Pascagoula - 29.92 (9:53am)

What this says it the center is moving closer toward the coast of SCLA though it's on a NNE heading. So it makes sense that Houma and Galliano would have the lowest pressures at this point. I'd expect it to go in somewhere close to or just east of Terrebonne Bay though if it's on a wobble, it could be over as far as Grand Isle. JMO for now.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Even the weather channel just mentioned that it could be close to 85 MPH right now. They mentioned that they don't think it will strengthen from here because there will be A bit more shear and the water is getting cooler. All excellent points. Their comments kind of echo what WXman says as well...

I think you mean 85kts. The NHC already has it at 90mph

[Steve]

Im now under a tropical storm watch in NC, lol.

Y'all up in Asheville?

[Stormgodess]

Heads up Biloxi on the latest surge updates


 https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/1321482355673075717

[supercane4867]

I’d estimate landfall intensity to be at least 90kts. Only a matter of time for surface winds to catch up with satellite presentation and flight level winds. Never underestimate the power of baroclinic forcing.

[TallahasseeMan]

Looks like Zeta has closed off an eye on IR.

[EquusStorm]

Water temperatures and shear are meaningless when the storm is moving so fast it won't notice the very brief SST change and is moving with said shear fast enough to mostly cancel it out. Tremendous baroclinic enhancement should lead to strengthening or at least steady state; can't see it below 80kt at landfall

[EquusStorm]

On another note, could be a long week for power companies even a good ways inland

[ConvergenceZone]

Even the weather channel just mentioned that it could be close to 85 MPH right now. They mentioned that they don't think it will strengthen from here because there will be A bit more shear and the water is getting cooler. All excellent points. Their comments kind of echo what WXman says as well...

They must not be looking at the satellite images the rest of us are seeing.

They are looking at the cooler waters and some shear ahead of it...

[FixySLN]

Heads up Biloxi on the latest surge updates


https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/1321482355673075717?s=20

We're ready out here. Decorations are inside, beer fridge is stocked, yard is clear. Happy it's a quick hitter. If it were going to stick around we would've bailed.

[Iceresistance]

AF309 from Texas heading into Zeta

[pcolaman]

Looks as if the NNE direction is now starting. IMHO

[supercane4867]

Since no one is expecting such, I think a major hurricane at landfall is definitely not impossible. Yes there are cooler waters ahead but a fast moving system in the mid-latitude with an intense 200mb jet to the west of it functions a little different than your typical tropical cyclone. This is a purely speculative call though.

[xironman]

Basically 8 years to the day that Sandy pummeled the east coast. Not that Zeta is nearly the same sized storm though.

[kevin]

Eye seems to be closing off on IR:

[SconnieCane]

Looks much improved over the structural "hiccup" I mentioned earlier this morning around 12-13Z. 80-85kts should be right on the money.

[Stormgodess]

Since no one is expecting such, I think a major hurricane at landfall is definitely not impossible. Yes there are cooler waters ahead but a fast moving system in the mid-latitude with an intense 200mb jet to the west of it functions a little different than your typical tropical cyclone. This is a purely speculative call though.

And there is a nagging pain in the back of my mind making me wonder if we REALLY KNOW the extent of the effect that the Cold front will have on it?

It was so hot and muggy here yesterday even as Zeta was just leaving the Yucatan. I understand we have similar instances from the east coast to use as a gauge, I just cant imagine their atmosphere could be ripe as ours is for something to just explode

But Im a noob, and more of an empath than data person, so what do I know lol

[wxman57]

This is not a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds do not cover a large area, and are mostly east of the center (out to 30 miles or so). Tropical storm-force wind radii are just about average for an Atlantic hurricane. This is not Katrina. It will not produce a surge that overtops the levees in New Orleans. I think the NHC is being very generous with that 80 kt (90 mph) wind in their latest advisory. Probably closer to 75 kts, but they may be going 80 kts because they expect a little strengthening prior to landfall (baroclinic enhancement, which has been mentioned).

Who said this was a large hurricane? Who compared this to Katrina? Also, your condescending comments towards the NHC are getting old. And it’s especially dangerous in the midst of a landfall.

You should read the thread before you post a reply. It was stated that Zeta was a very large storm, with a large wind field that would surprise everyone with its storm surge. As for the NHC forecasters, I know all of them. They're good forecasters. They tend to err on the high side with the winds so that people heed the warnings. Plus, they have to consider that they are only able to have track points 12 hours apart, so they may be compensating for that.

[gfsperpendicular]

Even the weather channel just mentioned that it could be close to 85 MPH right now. They mentioned that they don't think it will strengthen from here because there will be A bit more shear and the water is getting cooler. All excellent points. Their comments kind of echo what WXman says as well...

They must not be looking at the satellite images the rest of us are seeing.

They are looking at the cooler waters and some shear ahead of it...

There's not much "ahead" at this point, it's just a few hours away from landfall.

[supercane4867]

Poleward outflow in full force now.