Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[GeneratorPower]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the weekend or early
next week while it is nearly stationary over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

It's deja vu all over again!...sure enough....yet another to watch....2K is on overdrive

Louisiana coast. 75 mph. Final answer.

I meant that this is my prediction, sorry for the confusion.

[LarryWx]

Forgetting FL for the moment and even though it will likely not be another very strong H like Mitch, this system and general pattern setup (little movement of moisture for many days) are increasingly suggestive of the possibility of extreme flooding rains in parts of Central America next week. Those in Central America need to monitor this carefully. Are there any regular forum posters from CA?

For example, here are the 12Z Euro and 12Z GFS 5 day rainfall amounts for days 6-10:

12Z Euro:


12Z GFS:


12Z Euro relative to normal:

[Hurricane Alexis]

Hopefully this means see y’all next season!

This was said for Alpha Beta, Zeta & countless other storms and look where we are. To. Soon. To . Sound. All. Clear.

Not this time. Zeta will probably be the last storm to threaten the northern Gulf Coast and maybe the U.S. for that matter.

Sounds like a rational possibility in a very irrational year. Until there's a season ending front pushing through southern Florida bringing in the westerlies, we're still in business down here.

[SouthFLTropics]

Those rainfall forecasts that Larry shows are a recipe for disaster. Mudslides in Central America will be extremely severe if that pans out. The death toll from Mitch was significant due much in part to the mudslides an steady rain that parked over Central America back in 1998.

[SFLcane]

Larry you have the euro ensembles yet?

[SFLcane]

Larry you have the euro ensembles yet?

Thus far seems quite active with not many going into CA.

[LarryWx]

Larry you have the euro ensembles yet?

Of 51 members, 2 S FL direct H hits 11/8-9. Also a 3rd one sideswipes S FL on 11/11. But not to minimize CA, they get a ton of rain in the 6-10 day period on this run.

[SFLcane]

Larry you have the euro ensembles yet?

https://i.imgur.com/AcazNO5.png

Wow!

[ElectricStorm]

Larry you have the euro ensembles yet?

https://i.imgur.com/AcazNO5.png

That's pretty active for a Euro ensemble

[SFLcane]

I thought Florida’s season is over? Please stop with these absurd post. Considering how busy this yr has been the Conus till nov 30th is fair game. Again I just have that feeling which I have had for weeks now that the FL peninsula isn’t going to get off the hook. We shall see

[underthwx]

It's deja vu all over again!...sure enough....yet another to watch....2K is on overdrive

Louisiana coast. 75 mph. Final answer.

I meant that this is my prediction, sorry for the confusion.

No worries my friend.....thanks for your reply, I appreciate you

[LarryWx]

From the 12Z EPS mean of 51 members, here's the total rainfall for both the day 1-7 and day 8-14 periods, which is focused on much of CA. The 14 day totals are 6-12" in a good portion of CA with some areas as high as 12-15" and with isolated in the 15-18" range! Keeping in mind that this is a mean of 51 members meaning the most extreme potential is smoothed out, it is very rare to see something like this there:

Days 1-7:


Days 1-14:

[SFLcane]

Eps potential for a TD up to 75-80% now.

[gatorcane]

I thought Florida’s season is over? Please stop with these absurd post. Considering how busy this yr has been the Conus till nov 30th is fair game. Again I just have that feeling which I have had for weeks now that the FL peninsula isn’t going to get off the hook. We shall see

Anything is possible but the odds are really stacked against anything significant for Florida from here on out. My feeling is that we won’t see anything else and peninsula Florida will escape. It may be possible we get something that is much weaker than it was was in the Caribbean. The front that expected to come though this later this weekend should really bring in a noticeable change with drier air that should also start working to cool the shelf waters some not to mention should allow the westerlies to push south.

Now the Caribbean on the other hand...

[underthwx]

Larry you have the euro ensembles yet?

https://i.imgur.com/AcazNO5.png

Wow!

Make that two Wows!

[SFLcane]

I thought Florida’s season is over? Please stop with these absurd post. Considering how busy this yr has been the Conus till nov 30th is fair game. Again I just have that feeling which I have had for weeks now that the FL peninsula isn’t going to get off the hook. We shall see

Anything is possible but the odds are really stacked against anything significant for Florida from here on out. My feeling is that we won’t see anything else and peninsula Florida will escape. It may be possible we get something that is much weaker than it was was in the Caribbean. The front that expected to come though this later this weekend should really bring in a noticeable change with drier air that should also start working to cool the shelf waters some not to mention should allow the westerlies to push south.

Yep odds are also stacked to see almost a major hurricane into the gulfcoast on my birthday today. That’s a big signal from the eps so Iam watching

[underthwx]

From the 12Z EPS mean of 51 members, here's the total rainfall for both the day 1-7 and day 8-14 periods, which is focused on much of CA. The 14 day totals are 6-12" in a good portion of CA with some areas as high as 12-15" and with isolated in the 15-18" range! Keeping in mind that this is a mean of 51 members meaning the most extreme potential is smoothed out, it is very rare to see something like this there:

Days 1-7:
https://i.imgur.com/DmwXKcp.png

Days 1-14:
https://i.imgur.com/6Uy1bhO.png

What's up Larry....I gotta tell ya....those are some pretty significant rain fall total(possibly)....how do you look that up?....is it hydrology?....or NCEP?.....any info would be appreciated bro

[LarryWx]

From the 12Z EPS mean of 51 members, here's the total rainfall for both the day 1-7 and day 8-14 periods, which is focused on much of CA. The 14 day totals are 6-12" in a good portion of CA with some areas as high as 12-15" and with isolated in the 15-18" range! Keeping in mind that this is a mean of 51 members meaning the most extreme potential is smoothed out, it is very rare to see something like this there:

Days 1-7:
https://i.imgur.com/DmwXKcp.png

Days 1-14:
https://i.imgur.com/6Uy1bhO.png

What's up Larry....I gotta tell ya....those are some pretty significant rain fall total(possibly)....how do you look that up?....is it hydrology?....or NCEP?.....any info would be appreciated bro

These maps I showed are from a private service. But you can go to Tropical Tidbits as well as NCEP models and look around.

[Nimbus]

As long as the front clears the gulf what develops in the Caribbean stays in the Caribbean.
Climo favors west coast Florida for November storms that make landfall in the ConUS though.

[cp79]

Looking better and better that this system will not be a US threat. Hearts go out to those in CA, though.