Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[Loveweather12]

Looking better and better that this system will not be a US threat. Hearts go out to those in CA, though.

Don’t you think it’s too early to say it’s going to CA when no low has formed. We’ve been repeating this cycle before this hurricane season.
I know I’m wasting my energy typing this but until we get closer to development or we see a storm make a move, no option & I mean no option is off the table.
I will repeat this over & over again even If I have to say multiple times.
People always tell the 2020 hurricane season what to do & does the exact opposite. Ive learned never to tell Mother Nature what to do

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the weekend or early
next week while it meanders over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[northjaxpro]

Now up to 30% in 120 hours.

[LarryWx]

Looking better and better that this system will not be a US threat. Hearts go out to those in CA, though.

Don’t you think it’s too early to say it’s going to CA when no low has formed. We’ve been repeating this cycle before this hurricane season.
I know I’m wasting my energy typing this but until we get closer to development or we see a storm make a move, no option & I mean no option is off the table.
I will repeat this over & over again even If I have to say multiple times.
People always tell the 2020 hurricane season what to do & does the exact opposite. Ive learned never to tell Mother Nature what to do

As ominous as it appears rainfallwise in CA per models, of course it is way too early to have confidence on whether or not it will ever actually get bad in CA and where any TC tracks assuming it forms. All options are on the table.

[underthwx]

8 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the weekend or early
next week while it meanders over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

That's a vigorous looking wave...is that the area that they are watching?

[blp]

Euro ensembles today some shifting away from CA to more of grazing and NW Carribean. This may not be done deal yet.

00z


12z

[TheStormExpert]

Climatology favors a track either ejecting NE over Cuba through The Bahamas and OTS, or into Central America. The latter seems much more likely at the moment.

Bet overnight runs and their ensembles go back to shoving this into Central America.

[CyclonicFury]

00z GFS stronger so far, appears to have genesis by Monday.

[Hurricaneman]

00z GFS stronger so far, appears to have genesis by Monday.

Also the ridge seems weaker this run, might miss Nicaragua to the north, we'll have to see

Nope, goes WSW into Nicaragua

[Hurricaneman]

This looks like a fork in the road situation, A stronger or quicker developing system will go NNE through Cuba, Bahamas or maybe Florida but if it takes longer to develop it will go into Central America so thats something to watch for

[SFLcane]

This looks like a fork in the road situation, A stronger or quicker developing system will go NNE through Cuba, Bahamas or maybe Florida but if it takes longer to develop it will go into Central America so thats something to watch for

This is what the 12z eps is showing a stronger storm with most heading NNW towards Florida or Bahamas.

[TheStormExpert]

This looks like a fork in the road situation, A stronger or quicker developing system will go NNE through Cuba, Bahamas or maybe Florida but if it takes longer to develop it will go into Central America so thats something to watch for

This is what the 12z eps is showing a stronger storm with most heading NNW towards Florida or Bahamas.

https://i.postimg.cc/y8wBfWjq/9-B2-BB1-DA-CC74-41-C3-B0-EF-7045-A9-DE9629.png

That’s over 10 days out and will likely change! Been down this road before with pre-Zeta.

[blp]

00z GEFS coming in more north and stronger so far.

[Sanibel]

Same forecasters that predicted Zeta say the Southern Oscillation Index is primed to produce another Low from latent conditions in the same place...

Instability and moisture should simmer up another storm due to prime conditions sitting over hot SST's...

[Deshaunrob17]

This season is nuts!!!!!! I don’t care what they say about ACE but this kind of persistent activity is beyond my imagination!!!!
Won’t surprise me if this upcoming system is a Paloma like system from November 2008

[ElectricStorm]

Eta here we come, no breaks in 2020

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system meanders over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Ryxn]

Thinking it becomes a depression November 1 and a storm November 2. And I think 3 more storms will form in November around the same times as Gamma, Delta, and Epsilon did in 2005. I believe it will be the most active November in terms of names storms with 4.

[Deshaunrob17]

This season is nuts!!!!!! I don’t care what they say about ACE but this kind of persistent activity is beyond my imagination!!!!
Won’t surprise me if this upcoming system is a Paloma like system from November 2008

Ohhh I want to add something- a Paloma or Wilma like system could happen in the Western Caribbean

[LarryWx]

0Z EPS:

[GCANE]

CMC spins this up along the northern axis of the wave 36 hrs out.
GFS much later and in the middle of the wave.
Judging by what TPW and convection currently looks like, IMHO CMC may have a good shot.
NHC maybe thinking the same?