Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[cycloneye]

Real Earth visible loop.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... HyT53X_Kk#

[Spacecoast]

[cp79]

La Niña will have a significant effect on how this plays out. This isn’t a normal November.

My goodness, you ain't kidding. La Nina is already flexing her muscle. We are having the warmest October on record here.

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/current/daily/gif/cur_coraltemp5km_ssta_wnc.gif

Note that well-above-average SSTs are situated closest to the west coast of peninsular Florida, especially the Tampa Bay Area.

That’ll change with the cooler air coming in the next few days that will drop temps in the 50s at night.

[AutoPenalti]

Real Earth visible loop.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... HyT53X_Kk#

Is that a spin I see at 12.55N, 59.60W?

[cycloneye]

Real Earth visible loop.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... HyT53X_Kk#

Is that a spin I see at 12.55N, 59.60W?

Looks like mid-level.

[SFLcane]

This is getting better organized folks.

[cycloneye]

The folks in CentralAmerica have to watch this for intense rains, flooding and mudslides.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1321842803660369920

[ElectricStorm]

This is getting better organized folks.

https://i.imgur.com/WQ0cdIl.gif

I smell an invest coming... Real soon

[GeneratorPower]

Para into Central America with a lot of dry air over the Gulf and Florida with strong High pressure as is typical for early November:

https://i.postimg.cc/t4pcgN70/gfsp-mid-RH-watl-fh0-168.gif

La Niña will have a significant effect on how this plays out. This isn’t a normal November.

My goodness, you ain't kidding. La Nina is already flexing her muscle. We are having the warmest October on record here.

I like to look at patterns as a guide to what will happen. It's basically persistence forecasting. Why did we have four named storms hit Louisiana/North Gulf Coast this year? Pattern locked in. Why did 4 hurricanes in 45 days strike FL in 2004? Pattern locked in. It *can* change but when you see stuff over and over, you kinda get the feeling it *won't* change. Why does everyone say "Florida Forcefield". Well, when a pattern is locked in you just can't overcome that pattern and it lasts for MONTHS.

I used to live in the Tennessee Valley and sometime in 2007-ish we had an unbelievable heat ridge that spiked temps to 104F+ every single day for weeks. It was horrible. The pattern would. not. break. down. Until it did.

The question is, does the pattern of Northern Gulf Coast hits continue, or is pattern broken?

[gatorcane]

The GFS is trending stronger and shows more of a WSW turn into Central America. Note a stronger storm would tend to move more WSW since it feels the building ridge over the GOM:

[aspen]

GFS-Para has shown the vorticity of Eta coming together pretty quickly, with a TC in the eastern Caribbean on Halloween. This quicker genesis allows it to RI into a major prior to landfall on November 3rd/4th.




SSTs aren't as crazy warm as they were when Delta was forming (this is late October after all), but they're plenty warm to support a max of a Cat 5.

[SFLcane]

The GFS is trending stronger and shows more of a WSW turn into Central America. Note a stronger storm would tend to move more WSW since it feels the building ridge over the GOM:

https://i.postimg.cc/9MyQHwbQ/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-fh0-156.gif

Likely overdone.

[gatorcane]

The ICON is also into Central America and is also a little stronger, Not looking good for Honduras or Nicaragua.

[edu2703]

Getting better organized. I wouldn't be surprised if it's gets tagged as an Invest later today.

For now, those who need to watch very close are the folks in Nicaragua and Honduras. It could be a strong TS or even a hurricane heading towards them and also a slow moving one, that could bring torrential rainfall.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1321847122518544384

[gatorcane]

GFS landfalls at only a bit more than 144 hours which is next Wed.

[TheStormExpert]

I think some of y’all are just hoping for something to hit Florida, can’t say I’m not the same but I’m beyond over this season even if the peninsula was greatly spared.

Besides how many hurricanes and tropical storms have struck the peninsula in November alone in all recorded history?

[ElectricStorm]

I think some of y’all are just hoping for something to hit Florida, can’t say I’m not the same but I’m beyond over this season even if the peninsula was greatly spared.

Besides how many hurricanes and tropical storms have struck the peninsula in November alone in all recorded history?

How many major hurricanes have hit New Orleans in the last week of October lol... This whole season has thrown climotology in the Not saying it's likely bit it could happen. The CA solution is much more likely though.

[cp79]

This could actually end up being a Pacific storm by this time next week.

[Ryxn]

I think some of y’all are just hoping for something to hit Florida, can’t say I’m not the same but I’m beyond over this season even if the peninsula was greatly spared.

Besides how many hurricanes and tropical storms have struck the peninsula in November alone in all recorded history?

Only two have. The November 1935 Yankee Hurricane and Hurricane Kate of November 1985, both Category 2 at landfall

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Ya ... 20November.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kate_(1985)

The Yankee storm had a weird as hell track coming from the Central Atlantic toward Miami. It didn't even originate from the tropics. Kate was an oddball for how late it formed and it attain major hurricane status later than any hurricane in the Gulf.