WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Severe Tropical Storm
I’m extra bullish with my prediction: 150-155 kt and 900-910 mbar. The very deep CDO and tiny eye at this point indicate Goni is going to be something other than a normal Cat 5.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: GONI - Severe Tropical Storm
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: GONI - Severe Tropical Storm
From Category 1 to Category 4/5 the next update? 
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Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Severe Tropical Storm
Not a pinhole, but there is an eye.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Severe Tropical Storm
So uh... My prediction might be a little too low...
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Severe Tropical Storm
Goni is doing everything he can to be the stronger of the two this time. I think it will be pretty close when both storms are done
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Severe Tropical Storm
Iceresistance wrote:
Not a pinhole, but there is an eye.
yep looking at the rapid scan floater it seems it's trying to form a larger eye
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Severe Tropical Storm
Weather Dude wrote:
So uh... My prediction might be a little too low...
Well not yet. Goni seems to be having trouble completely clearing its eye. It’s probably “just” a Category 2 right now.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Severe Tropical Storm
aspen wrote:Weather Dude wrote:
So uh... My prediction might be a little too low...
Well not yet. Goni seems to be having trouble completely clearing its eye. It’s probably “just” a Category 2 right now.
Yeah obviously not a Cat 5 yet but it could get stronger than 140kts... The real question is how will the JTWC handle it? They struggle with RI sometimes
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Severe Tropical Storm
ejeraldmc wrote:Iceresistance wrote:
Not a pinhole, but there is an eye.
yep looking at the rapid scan floater it seems it's trying to form a larger eye
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Severe Tropical Storm
JMA latest Dvorak is 4.5. Just bizarre.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: GONI - Severe Tropical Storm
NotoSans wrote:JMA latest Dvorak is 4.5. Just bizarre.
I thought they had 5.5 earlier today, after the 15z advisory.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: GONI - Severe Tropical Storm
The eye looks like it’s collapsing. Maybe mid-level shear struck again?
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Severe Tropical Storm
aspen wrote:The eye looks like it’s collapsing. Maybe mid-level shear struck again?
Latest frames are showing that Goni's eye is coming back.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
JMA up to Typhoon.
TY 2019 (Goni)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 29 October 2020
<Analysis at 18 UTC, 29 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°25' (16.4°)
E133°25' (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 75 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 30 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50' (15.8°)
E130°05' (130.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 185 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 31 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N14°30' (14.5°)
E126°25' (126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 270 km (145 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 1 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°20' (15.3°)
E121°05' (121.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 2 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°05' (16.1°)
E116°55' (116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 3 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°55' (15.9°)
E113°50' (113.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 29 October 2020
<Analysis at 18 UTC, 29 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°25' (16.4°)
E133°25' (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 75 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 30 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50' (15.8°)
E130°05' (130.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 185 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 31 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N14°30' (14.5°)
E126°25' (126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 270 km (145 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 1 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°20' (15.3°)
E121°05' (121.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 2 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°05' (16.1°)
E116°55' (116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 3 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°55' (15.9°)
E113°50' (113.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
There must be some serious discussion ongoing at JTWC right now... Best track update is over an hour late!
EDIT: As soon as I posted that it updated...
22W GONI 201029 1800 16.3N 133.4E WPAC 120 943
Also it appears the 12z BT was revised to 90kts
EDIT: As soon as I posted that it updated...
22W GONI 201029 1800 16.3N 133.4E WPAC 120 943
Also it appears the 12z BT was revised to 90kts
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Holy ****, all the way up to 120 kt in just six hours! Goni’s 6hr intensification of +40 mph is the highest all year, exceeding Amphan and Haishen (both +30 mph).
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
aspen wrote:Holy ****, all the way up to 120 kt in just six hours! Goni’s 6hr intensification of +40 mph is the highest all year, exceeding Amphan and Haishen (both +30 mph).
JTWC not messing around with Goni. Hopefully they keep it up *crosses fingers*
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Weather Dude wrote:aspen wrote:Holy ****, all the way up to 120 kt in just six hours! Goni’s 6hr intensification of +40 mph is the highest all year, exceeding Amphan and Haishen (both +30 mph).
JTWC not messing around with Goni. Hopefully they keep it up *crosses fingers*
They were pretty aggressive as well during Haishen’s RI phase, but then refuses to upgrade it to a Cat 5 despite maintaining a full W ring around a +20C eye for like a full day.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
aspen wrote:Weather Dude wrote:aspen wrote:Holy ****, all the way up to 120 kt in just six hours! Goni’s 6hr intensification of +40 mph is the highest all year, exceeding Amphan and Haishen (both +30 mph).
JTWC not messing around with Goni. Hopefully they keep it up *crosses fingers*
They were pretty aggressive as well during Haishen’s RI phase, but then refuses to upgrade it to a Cat 5 despite maintaining a full W ring around a +20C eye for like a full day.
Yeah crazy stuff happens with the JTWC lol
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