WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1321990901460307968

[ElectricStorm]

125 kt? More like 135 kt. If the JTWC and JMA continue to horribly underestimate systems, especially those that are threatening land, then they need some massive changes to be at the same standards as the NHC.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/1kmsrvis/2020wp22_1kmsrvis_202010300040.gif

Yeah idk what's going on but they have been AWFUL the last couple years. Especially the JTWC. So many storms they have dropped the ball on and it just keeps happening over and over again... Just to upgrade them all post season. Makes no sense to me. They are the pros but come on...

Imagine this gets a +20 kt upgrade in post-season analysis. Of course, that depends on how strong it gets in the next 24 hours and what the JTWC ultimately decides to call it.

It's almost like they're being lazy and just throwing out numbers and wait until post season to actually look at them. When he have this conversation literally every single typhoon... It's a problem. A big one. Especially for the people about to be slammed by it. I've seen their Dvorak fixes over the last couple years. I'm sorry but many of them are just flat out garbage. They need to up their game because it's getting old, annoying, and it just needs to stop.
Ok end of rant, carry on!

[1900hurricane]

Given the 118 kt SAR data from ~21Z, I don't think 125 kt is unreasonable for 00Z, although I am in favor of a slightly higher 130 kt. If anything, the SAR data might indicate the JTWC intensity for 18Z was a little too high (I like the slightly lower 115 kt there).

With that said, this looks well on its way to a >=140 kt intensity for 06Z.

[aspen]

Yeah idk what's going on but they have been AWFUL the last couple years. Especially the JTWC. So many storms they have dropped the ball on and it just keeps happening over and over again... Just to upgrade them all post season. Makes no sense to me. They are the pros but come on...

Imagine this gets a +20 kt upgrade in post-season analysis. Of course, that depends on how strong it gets in the next 24 hours and what the JTWC ultimately decides to call it.

It's almost like they're being lazy and just throwing out numbers and wait until post season to actually look at them. When he have this conversation literally every single typhoon... It's a problem. A big one. Especially for the people about to be slammed by it. I've seen their Dvorak fixes over the last couple years. I'm sorry but many of them are just flat out garbage. They need to up their game because it's getting old, annoying, and it just needs to stop.
Ok end of rant, carry on!

The one thing I’m fearing is something like Soudelor, except worse: a pinhole Super Typhoon making landfall while it’s being assessed as a Cat 2/3.

There shouldn’t be anything stopping Goni from getting the upgrade at 6z, and wind shear later in its life should prevent a STY landfall. Should.

[dexterlabio]

The ONLY plus side here is that it is a very compact storm so the areas with the strongest winds will not be widespread... HOWEVER, if it tracks close to Manila, the cost of damage would be tremendous.

[aspen]

Goni’s eye is quite impressive — very small, compact, and clear. This would be a really interesting system to have recon in, just for the sake of investigating a small-eye TC with a very tight pressure gradient.

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

Goni’s eye is quite impressive — very small, compact, and clear. This would be a really interesting system to have recon in, just for the sake of investigating a small-eye TC with a very tight pressure gradient.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/1kmsrvis/2020wp22_1kmsrvis_202010300130.gif

Nepartak-ish clarity

[euro6208]

This isn't like Delta where it rapidly intensified and peaked for only 6 hours and went downhill as fast. This is continuing to strengthen. 125 knot is too low.

Difference though is that Goni actually has a pinhole that's visible.

[Ed_2001]

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +21.9C Cloud Region Temp : -75.1C

Me think very likely to go Cat 5 on the next advisory.

[Nancy Smar]

TPPN13 PGTW 300255
A. TYPHOON 22W (GONI)
B. 30/0000Z
C. 16.38N
D. 132.25E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET IS 5.5. PT IS 6.5. DBO DT. CONSTRAINTS BKN DUE
TO RI.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN

[Highteeld]

DMAX should take the CDO to near -80 C. Probably a 100*C delta storm

[aspen]

Eye has warmed to over 20C and convection is cooling even more. The ADT temperature difference is 97C, very close to the >=100C difference associated with extremely intense TCs like Haiyan, Kong-Rey, Yutu, and Halong. The CDO is still kinda ragged, although it reminds me of Irma when it first became a Cat 5 (at least in terms of shape).

I will be very disappointed if this isn’t a Cat 5 next advisory. Hopefully ADT catches up (raws have shot to T#6.9).

[Ed_2001]

It's noon but we have a full CMG ring, hints of CDG and an eye that's as perfect as it gets.
I'm personally going with 155 knots


(Used snipping tool + ImgBB this time since the himawari website img link itself constantly updates)

[aspen]

The eye is up to +21.9C. That’s the warmest all year!

[mrbagyo]

Nepartak (2016) and Goni (2020) side by side



(Both GIF have the same image dimension (480x464) and framerate (7fps)

[dexterlabio]

It's noon but we have a full CMG ring, hints of CDG and an eye that's as perfect as it gets.
I'm personally going with 155 knots
https://i.ibb.co/FmGZhLm/Capture.png
https://i.ibb.co/y0vq86b/Capture2.png
(Used snipping tool + ImgBB this time since the himawari website img link itself constantly updates)

Just imagine what nighttime/DMax could bring.

[Highteeld]

2020OCT30 023000 6.1 945.1 117.4 6.1 6.5 6.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 22.39 -75.69 EYE 13 IR 70.5 16.43 -132.21 ARCHER HIM-8 21.6

[aspen]

Eye temp is +22.4C!!! That’s a full degree C warmer than Laura’s!

[NotoSans]

Looking quite similar to TY Nepartak in 2016 right now.