WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

TY 2019 (Goni)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 30 October 2020

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 30 October>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N16°25' (16.4°)
E132°10' (132.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 75 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 31 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N15°20' (15.3°)
E128°40' (128.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (105 NM)

2020OCT30 031000 6.3 940.9 122.2 6.3 6.6 7.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 22.85 -76.05 EYE 13 IR 70.5 16.45 -132.12 ARCHER HIM-8 21.7

TPPN13 PGTW 300341

A. TYPHOON 22W (GONI)

B. 30/0230Z

C. 16.38N

D. 132.25E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET IS 5.5. PT IS 6.5. DBO DT. CONSTRAINTS BKN DUE
TO RI.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

[euro6208]

Absolutely incredible at the same time disappointing. This is why this basin needs recon.

[Highteeld]

Visually this looks like a 160 kt storm

[Ed_2001]

Visually this looks like a 160 kt storm

The CDO has only gotten rounder and it's trying hard to make a CDG ring. Yikes.

[Highteeld]

Rippin' really hard right now

2020OCT30 034000 6.3 940.9 122.2 6.3 6.7 7.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 23.00 -76.63 EYE 12 IR 70.5 16.46 -132.02 ARCHER HIM-8 21.7

[doomhaMwx]

Also, models have shifted more south closer to Manila again during the last 12hrs.

00Z GFS has the center briefly moving over Bicol now, and eventually passing directly over Manila as a minimal TY. Will be interesting what the others show. Seems like models are reverting to the track they were showing when this was still a disturbance.

[Highteeld]

103-104* delta might not be out of the question in a few hours actually

[Ed_2001]

Just look at this. Looks like Goni became that one storm that finally tapped into the insane amount of OHC WPAC has stored up since summer. The ATL may have (probably) decisively won by numbers but to me this Goni blows every other one out of the water no puns intended. Just praying it weakens before inevitably landing on the Philippines again.

[Highteeld]

CDO probably approaching -80 as of 4z

[mrbagyo]

Just look at this. Looks like Goni became that one storm that finally tapped into the insane amount of OHC's WPAC has stored up since summer. The ATL may have (probably) decisively won by numbers but to me this Goni blows every other one out of the water no puns intended. Just praying it weakens before inevitably landing on the Philippines again.
https://i.ibb.co/fQ8h0hd/Capture3.png

I want to see it attain its maximum potential intensity while it's over water - once achieved, I hope it weakens considerably before it visits Luzon.

[ElectricStorm]

Wow what a storm, most impressive worldwide for me this year (so far.. we'll see what Atsani can do, but this is going to be extremely tough to beat). Better be a Cat 5 next advisory.

[Hayabusa]

23C eye temps

2020OCT30 034000 6.3 940.9 122.2 6.3 6.7 7.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 23.00 -76.63 EYE 12 IR 70.5 16.46 -132.02 ARCHER HIM-8 21.7
2020OCT30 041000 6.4 938.8 124.6 6.4 6.8 7.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 23.13 -77.59 EYE 13 IR 70.5 16.47 -131.91 ARCHER HIM-8 21.8

[Highteeld]

Getting closer to record territory

2020OCT30 041000 6.4 938.8 124.6 6.4 6.8 7.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 23.13 -77.59 EYE 13 IR 70.5 16.47 -131.91 ARCHER HIM-8 21.8

[Highteeld]

Delta up to 100.72*C

[ElectricStorm]

Getting closer to record territory

2020OCT30 041000 6.4 938.8 124.6 6.4 6.8 7.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 23.13 -77.59 EYE 13 IR 70.5 16.47 -131.91 ARCHER HIM-8 21.8

What's the record?

[Hayabusa]

Meranti's record was 23.82C, also Yutu reached 23.44C

2016SEP12 143000 7.1 919.6 143.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 23.82 -76.83 EYE 15 IR 82.0 19.20 -127.43 COMBO HIM-8 27.3

[Hayabusa]

Getting closer to record territory

2020OCT30 041000 6.4 938.8 124.6 6.4 6.8 7.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 23.13 -77.59 EYE 13 IR 70.5 16.47 -131.91 ARCHER HIM-8 21.8

What's the record?

I think it's Tip's 30C eye

[Weatherboi1023]

Current compact structure looks quite similar to Typhoon Chebi of 06 ( track also looks similar).
Compact storms are prone to huge fluctuation of intensity so we shouldn't be surprised if Goni undergoes explosive deepening like Chebi (57 mb drop in 6 hrs)

Agree with you

[ElectricStorm]

Man I wish JTWC did special advisories lol

[Ed_2001]

22W GONI 201030 0000 16.3N 132.7E WPAC 130 934

0z intensity revised up 5 knots. Curious to see what 06z will bring. I think it's almost certainly going to be C5 but by how much.