ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Holy SHIP guidance...

Very bullish first run

Those who want to know why he opens the eyes go to the 96L Models Thread

[TheStormExpert]

It seems like the only inhibitor we can foresee right now will be the potential for land interaction with CA, but even that is starting to look less likely

One model run doesn’t make a trend. Besides as several have stated a stronger system is more likely to feel the ridge building to its north and move into CA.

[CyclonicFury]

It seems like the only inhibitor we can foresee right now will be the potential for land interaction with CA, but even that is starting to look less likely

One model run doesn’t make a trend. Besides as several have stated a stronger system is more likely to feel the ridge building to its north and move into CA.

The ensembles have suggested for a while that 96L moving into CA and dissipating is far from a guarantee.

[Aric Dunn]

another 1.5 hours added.

that is a mighty good looking rotating tower... if its not to the surface it wont take long.

[edu2703]

ASCAT pass

[TheStormExpert]

It seems like the only inhibitor we can foresee right now will be the potential for land interaction with CA, but even that is starting to look less likely

One model run doesn’t make a trend. Besides as several have stated a stronger system is more likely to feel the ridge building to its north and move into CA.

The ensembles have suggested for a while that 96L moving into CA and dissipating is far from a guarantee.

Checkout the latest 18z EPS then.

[ClarCari]

One model run doesn’t make a trend. Besides as several have stated a stronger system is more likely to feel the ridge building to its north and move into CA.

The ensembles have suggested for a while that 96L moving into CA and dissipating is far from a guarantee.

Checkout the latest 18z EPS then.

We’re not saying you’re outright wrong and that it’s impossible, but from what you suggested in the models thread it’s not the best time right now to imply the U.S. is out of the woods. We’re just saying be careful bc this going into CA is not even close to certainty.

[tiger_deF]

ASCAT pass

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EljFUUsWMAEtqTe?format=jpg&name=medium

ASCAT and it's mythical ability to completely miss the CoC of developing systems when we need it the most

[TheStormExpert]

The ensembles have suggested for a while that 96L moving into CA and dissipating is far from a guarantee.

Checkout the latest 18z EPS then.

We’re not saying you’re outright wrong and that it’s impossible, but from what you suggested in the models thread it’s not the best time right now to imply the U.S. is out of the woods. We’re just saying be careful bc this going into CA is not even close to certainty.

Check the model runs then. Most if not all have this moving into CA. Whether or not it re-emerges is yet to be seen. But chances of a U.S. impact are quickly diminishing if you go by climatology.

[ClarCari]

Checkout the latest 18z EPS then.

We’re not saying you’re outright wrong and that it’s impossible, but from what you suggested in the models thread it’s not the best time right now to imply the U.S. is out of the woods. We’re just saying be careful bc this going into CA is not even close to certainty.

Check the model runs then. Most if not all have this moving into CA. Whether or not it re-emerges is yet to be seen. But chances of a U.S. impact are quickly diminishing if you go by climatology.

Climatology this year has brought everything north. Model runs have also brought this north just as much as they have been into CA. I’m basing my prediction as a mix of both. I’m not looking into what I want to see but what I do see.

[TheStormExpert]

We’re not saying you’re outright wrong and that it’s impossible, but from what you suggested in the models thread it’s not the best time right now to imply the U.S. is out of the woods. We’re just saying be careful bc this going into CA is not even close to certainty.

Check the model runs then. Most if not all have this moving into CA. Whether or not it re-emerges is yet to be seen. But chances of a U.S. impact are quickly diminishing if you go by climatology.

Climatology this year has brought everything north. Model runs have also brought this north just as much as they have been into CA. I’m basing my prediction as a mix of both. I’m not looking into what I want to see but what I do see.

At this point I’m beating a dead horse. But there’s going to be a ridge building in over the GoM and Florida to prevent anything from getting into the NW Caribbean. Hence the SW dip on the models on approach to CA.

[ClarCari]

Check the model runs then. Most if not all have this moving into CA. Whether or not it re-emerges is yet to be seen. But chances of a U.S. impact are quickly diminishing if you go by climatology.

Climatology this year has brought everything north. Model runs have also brought this north just as much as they have been into CA. I’m basing my prediction as a mix of both. I’m not looking into what I want to see but what I do see.

At this point I’m beating a dead horse. But there’s going to be a ridge building in over the GoM and Florida to prevent anything from getting into the NW Caribbean. Hence the SW dip on the models on approach to CA.

From what source is there for sure going to be a ridge that stops this from going north at all???
This isn’t for arguments sake but for discussion purposes as plenty of models bringing this north strongly suggests this ridge has the potential to not be as deep and protect the gulf as one may think.

[ElectricStorm]

Not saying it's going to be anything like it, but a certain M storm from 1998 comes to mind...

[ElectricStorm]

1. Shower activity associated with a large area of disturbed weather
over the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea has become a
little more concentrated this evening. Conditions are expected to
be conducive for development of this disturbance during the next
few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the time
the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[CourierPR]

Check the model runs then. Most if not all have this moving into CA. Whether or not it re-emerges is yet to be seen. But chances of a U.S. impact are quickly diminishing if you go by climatology.

Climatology this year has brought everything north. Model runs have also brought this north just as much as they have been into CA. I’m basing my prediction as a mix of both. I’m not looking into what I want to see but what I do see.

At this point I’m beating a dead horse. But there’s going to be a ridge building in over the GoM and Florida to prevent anything from getting into the NW Caribbean. Hence the SW dip on the models on approach to CA.

Well this afternoon, the NHC TWO mentioned something about it heading north but what do they know? I'll rely on the real storm experts. Oops! It was mentioned by a commercial meteorologist.

[ClarCari]

Climatology this year has brought everything north. Model runs have also brought this north just as much as they have been into CA. I’m basing my prediction as a mix of both. I’m not looking into what I want to see but what I do see.

At this point I’m beating a dead horse. But there’s going to be a ridge building in over the GoM and Florida to prevent anything from getting into the NW Caribbean. Hence the SW dip on the models on approach to CA.

Well this afternoon, the NHC TWO mentioned something about it heading north but what do they know? I'll rely on the real storm experts. Oops! It was mentioned by a commercial meteorologist.

No need for that!
To be civil we shouldn’t doubt the possibility of a CA only run, but it does require preliminary support right now as every other Caribbean system has been brought north at some point in their track this fall.

[GCANE]

Wave is amplifying nicely.
Going to be some big-time convergence when it starts running up against the front.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1321910455695265792



If this ends up moving into CA, then maybe the Florida “shield” is real after all.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone in place.
Clearly seen on WV.
This is not an ARWB created from a Rossby Wave.
Rather, its a highly divergent CCKW. The nasty kind.

[GCANE]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1321910455695265792
If this ends up moving into CA, then maybe the Florida “shield” is real after all.

I think the Nov TC's pretty much came from CAG's.