Weather Dude wrote:euro6208 wrote:aspen wrote:165 kt is a very good estimate for Halong. It was extremely intense, but it was just a little below a perfect T#8.0/170 kt TC. Hagibis, on the other hand, was likely in the 160-175 kt range.
Speaking of WPac systems, it’s very likely we’ll be talking about Goni and/or Atsani here soon. Goni is going through a phase of ERI and is developing a rapidly warming pinhole eye. Models are very aggressive with Atsani, far more than Goni. It seems like Goni could be similar to Hagibis and Atsani could be similar to Halong, in terms of structure.
Can you say the same for Dorian. Estimates peaked at below 140 knots. Yet recon....
Not all storms are stronger than estimates. Look at Zeta, it had Cat 4 estimates there for a bit and it clearly wasn't a Cat 4. Recon goes both ways
Cat 5's are a different story.
A majority are stronger than estimates and that includes TS to Cat 4.