ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

One self-sustaining thunderstorm is moving in from the north to the estimated CoC.
Good chance it's a cold pool.

[GCANE]

Pretty good chance that is a self-sustaining vortical hot tower.
Almost a guarantee that it's cold-pool driven.

[GCANE]

At this point, it appears steering is going to depend a lot on Eta's intensity.
A moderate TC will likely be influenced by a mid-level ridge over southern TX.
A mid-level ARWB will also be in place to the NE of the CoC.
GFS currently shows Eta taking a turn south into CA at this point on approach, basically having the ML-ridge predominating.
However, at higher level, the ARWB breaks down into a ULH just to the east of the CoC.
Meaning, if Eta is stronger than currently forecast, the ULH would push it NW which would be north of Honduras.
Very uncertain forecast track at this point, stay tune.

[GCANE]

Appears the wave is just about vertically tilted.
I am guessing the cold-pool is at the top of the axis as shown in green.
With the wave moving west, any hot tower that develops over it or slightly to its west and starts rotating will be a sure indication of the formation of a TD.
IMHO, we may see a stacked TS within 24 hrs.

[Blown Away]

Burying a decent storm into CA in @120 hours seems to be the modeling consensus for now.

[Loveweather12]

Burying a decent storm into CA in @120 hours seems to be the modeling consensus for now.

It can & will change. I’ve heard ensembles are different. Until we get a concrete low & see the patterns. Nothing is off the table.

[Nimbus]

Water is too cold near Hawaii for this to be much of a Pacific threat but I'll watch the ridging north of the Caribbean next week to see where it landfalls in Mexico. Mitch caused over 10,000 deaths in November 98.

[edu2703]

Up to 70/80

Shower activity continues to become better organized in association
with a tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Conditions are conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early
next week as the system moves into the central and western Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[GCANE]

New tower firing off.
Likely get a stacked warm core later this afternoon.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1322149745272463361

[aspen]

This is coming along much quicker than I anticipated. Maybe we’ll be looking at TD29 or PTC-29 sometime later today.

[underthwx]

Appears the wave is just about vertically tilted.
I am guessing the cold-pool is at the top of the axis as shown in green.
With the wave moving west, any hot tower that develops over it or slightly to its west and starts rotating will be a sure indication of the formation of a TD.
IMHO, we may see a stacked TS within 24 hrs.

https://i.imgur.com/66IzsyP.png

I agree, or at a minimum a TD by the weekend, if not later today or tonight...

[cjrciadt]

This is coming along much quicker than I anticipated. Maybe we’ll be looking at TD29 or PTC-29 sometime later today.

TD by 5pm
TS by 11am Sat
Recon by Sun Pm (sub 999mb)
My guesses

[Kazmit]

Normally faster development means further east. Will that be the case here?

[gfsperpendicular]

Normally faster development means further east. Will that be the case here?

Hard to tell because if it becomes a TC today, that would be a solid day earlier than even the earliest model depictions.

[SFLcane]

[kevin]

I'm not liking the look of this one, especially since earlier formation might indicate a more Eastern/Northern track. But even if it doesn't turn towards the Caribbean or the US this could be a very big threat to CA. And people, please don't sound 'all clears' right now. I remember people giving Florida the all clear on this forum regarding Zeta before it formed because model consensus was OTS and eventually it made it all the way to Louisiana. Goes to show how little value models truly have regarding exact tracks when a TD hasn't formed yet. The models are interesting for sure and definitely worth discussing, but by no means accurate enough this far out to sound all clears.

[cjrciadt]

https://i.imgur.com/mMJXJ9c.gif

Looks like something from mid July not next to last day of Oct.

[Iceresistance]

The NHC said that the system could form very quickly.

[wxman57]

I'd give it about a 100% chance of being Eta. Most likely, it will move into Nicaragua/Honduras and that will be the end of it. Models indicate a second strong cold front moving across the Gulf Monday, with a giant ridge building over the Gulf by Monday. If it's going to turn NE before CA, then it's going to have to do so pretty soon, which doesn't appear likely.

Someone in the Zeta thread was mentioning the Mitch track of 1998. Mitch went into Central America and eventually emerged back over water near the northeast Yucatan then tracked over south Florida. I'm not saying that will happen in this case, but the models are suggestive of something moving back out over the water a few days past landfall. Most indicate a NE track staying well south of Florida, though.

As for final landfall, I'm putting all my money on Louisiana.