WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

06Z is even more south. Probably because Goni is being steered by the more potent upper level STR that corresponds to Goni's intensity

To be more precise it's over Batangas

[Hayabusa]

WTH GFS initialized it as 200 knots

[ManilaTC]

We are facing a monster here. Wish us all the best guys.

[1900hurricane]

SMAP got a partial hit.

[Iceresistance]

OMG, this thing is at 175 mph



0_0

[dexterlabio]

The eye seems to be getting constricted, so perhaps the intensification phase has stopped for now.

[euro6208]

CDO perfectly circular.

CDG wrapped completely around the eye earlier but has since broken up.

[Hayabusa]

As strong as Halong in winds per JMA

TY 2019 (Goni)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 30 October 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 30 October>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N16°05' (16.1°)
E130°55' (130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 95 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

[euro6208]

WTH GFS initialized it as 200 knots

In this day and age, I wouldn't be surprise if it was near that number. Models and Satellite estimates are having a super hard time with this incredible monster.

One thing is for sure. This is stronger than 155 knots.

[Hayabusa]

Maintain 150? or up?

TPPN13 PGTW 301231

A. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI)

B. 30/1200Z

C. 16.10N

D. 130.85E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.5. MED AND PT YIELD 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


YOUNG

[aspen]

WTH GFS initialized it as 200 knots

In this day and age, I wouldn't be surprise if it was near that number. Models and Satellite estimates are having a super hard time with this incredible monster.

One thing is for sure. This is stronger than 155 knots.

I would be surprised. Not even Patricia got to 200 kt, and it had a far deeper CDO than Goni. But it’s easy to say this is at least 155 kt, and with a pure CMG ring around a >20C pinhole eye, it’s one of the best TCs I’ve seen.

[Hayabusa]

22W GONI 201030 1200 16.1N 130.9E WPAC 155 905

[euro6208]

They should add 7.75 to the Dvorak list for 160 knot systems. This will help alot of typhoons that were likely stronger than 155 knots but couldn't get the raise.

Same way they added 8.5 for 185 knots used by CIMSS and advanced Dvorak.

7.5 155
7.75 160
8.0 170

[euro6208]

22W GONI 201030 1200 16.1N 130.9E WPAC 155 905

Incredible. Goni joins other La nina monsters.

Zeb 1998
Angela 1995
Cimaron 2007
Megi 2010

And all hit the Philippines.

[Iceresistance]

22W GONI 201030 1200 16.1N 130.9E WPAC 155 905

155 knots = 180 mph

[euro6208]

22W GONI 201030 1200 16.1N 130.9E WPAC 155 905

155 knots = 180 mph

I wonder what's going on under the eyewall and ocean at the moment. Pure hell.

[Iceresistance]

22W GONI 201030 1200 16.1N 130.9E WPAC 155 905

155 knots = 180 mph

I wonder what's going on under the eyewall and ocean at the moment. Pure hell.

The Satellite eye temp. is up to 17C, but the eye is small.

[mrbagyo]

22W GONI 201030 1200 16.1N 130.9E WPAC 155 905

Incredible. Goni joins other La nina monsters.

Zeb 1998
Angela 1995
Cimaron 2007
Megi 2010

And all hit the Philippines.

Cimaron happened in the last quarter of 2006 (an El Niño event)

[aspen]

22W GONI 201030 1200 16.1N 130.9E WPAC 155 905

Impressive. That’s as intense as Mitch, although since this is a WPac system with a tiny eye, I would’ve gone with something a little under 900 like Mangkhut (898 mbar) and Yutu (899 mbar).

[Hayabusa]