WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#361 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:00 am

JTWC Warning #11 180 MPH Gusts to 220 mph
Image

The storm looks like Ivan in 1997.
Image
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#362 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:21 am

Iceresistance wrote:JTWC Warning #11 180 MPH Gusts to 220 mph
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2220.gif

The storm looks like Ivan in 1997.
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/22W_301200sair.jpg

That's still warning 10 at the time of this post as JTWC hasn't updated the graphic yet on their site. Check my post above, and please don't use hotlinking, hotlinking will cause to load the image directly from JTWC's servers and that is bad. Please download the image and upload it to an image hosting site like imgur.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#363 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:22 am

Maximum significant wave height...65 feet...
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#364 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:23 am

Hayabusa wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:JTWC Warning #11 180 MPH Gusts to 220 mph
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2220.gif

The storm looks like Ivan in 1997.
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/22W_301200sair.jpg

That's still warning 10 at the time of this post as JTWC hasn't updated the graphic yet on their site. Check my post above, and please don't use hotlinking, hotlinking will cause to load the image directly from JTWC's servers and that is bad. Please download the image and upload it to an image hosting site like imgur.

Ok, will do, I will need to post the JTWC photos only if you have not yet. But that is unlikely.
But still, 180 MPH!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#365 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:25 am

Hayabusa wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:JTWC Warning #11 180 MPH Gusts to 220 mph
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2220.gif

The storm looks like Ivan in 1997.
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/22W_301200sair.jpg

That's still warning 10 at the time of this post as JTWC hasn't updated the graphic yet on their site. Check my post above, and please don't use hotlinking, hotlinking will cause to load the image directly from JTWC's servers and that is bad. Please download the image and upload it to an image hosting site like imgur.

I had ZERO idea it was hotlinking, is the Satellite imagery also considered hotlinking? How can I save it without it being it not showable?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#366 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:29 am

Zoom Earth says lowest pressure is at 905 MB.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#367 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:32 am

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#368 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:36 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:JTWC Warning #11 180 MPH Gusts to 220 mph
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2220.gif

The storm looks like Ivan in 1997.
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/22W_301200sair.jpg

That's still warning 10 at the time of this post as JTWC hasn't updated the graphic yet on their site. Check my post above, and please don't use hotlinking, hotlinking will cause to load the image directly from JTWC's servers and that is bad. Please download the image and upload it to an image hosting site like imgur.

I had ZERO idea it was hotlinking, is the Satellite imagery also considered hotlinking? How can I save it without it being it not showable?

You download the image then upload it to an image hosting site like imgur then you use it to post the images here.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#369 Postby ejeraldmc » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:36 am

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#370 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:43 am



Right up there with the legends from the other basins

Patricia EPAC 1st
Wilma ATL 1st
Zoe SPAC 2nd strongest in the Southern Hemisphere

Goni was a record breaker possibly top 10 globally if there was recon.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#371 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:46 am

WDPN31 PGTW 301200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT BUT VERY POWERFUL SYSTEM WITH SHARPLY DEFINED 7 NM
EYE CONTINUING TO CONTRACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE VERY WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED ONCE AGAIN TO 155 KNOTS ALIGNED WITH
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.5 (155 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND RJTD. ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES ARE A BIT LOWER AT
T7.1, LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY COOLER EYE
TEMPERATURES AND A WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT
ONE TO TWO DEG CELSIUS AROUND THE 1200Z HOUR. STY 22W HAS STARTED TO
TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD, WHILE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED DOWN QUITE
A BIT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A TEMPORARY
WEAKENING IN THE STEERING FLOW AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM
SHIFTS TO THE STR LOCATED TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IN THE REGION REMAINS HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH VERY
WARM (30 DEG CELSIUS) WATERS, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STEERING PATTERN APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WESTERN
STR AS OF 1200Z, ALLOWING FOR STY 22W TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL RESUME A
MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AS THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO A MORE
WEST-EAST ORIENTATION. STY 22W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
CENTRAL LUZON, NORTHEAST OF MANILA JUST BEFORE TAU 48 AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE, THEN TRANSIT ACROSS LUZON AND INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 72. STY 22W HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY,
AS A 301014Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A POSSIBLE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMING AROUND 50 NM OUT FROM THE
INNER EYEWALL. THE CIMSS M-PERC MODEL IS ALSO PREDICTING A VERY HIGH
PROBABILITY (>90%) OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. HENCE, INTENSITY IS VERY LIKELY TO START TO DECREASE
SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS DUE TO THE PROBABLE ERC, BUT THEN
WON’T HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO RECOVER AS VWS INCREASES, SSTS COOL
AND OUTFLOW DEGRADES AS THE SYSTEM GETS CUT OFF FROM THE POLEWARD
CHANNEL AND IS REDUCED TO A SINGLE CHANNEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
PATTERN. THE SYSTEM IS THUS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 125 KNOTS BY TAU
36 AND EVEN SLIGHTLY LOWER PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL,
INTERACTION WITH RUGGED TERRAIN, INCREASING VWS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
AND COOLER SSTS WILL COMBINE TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER
IT REEMERGES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AS A MINIMAL TYPHOON BY TAU
72. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, AND THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
THROUGH TAU 36, THEN NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST, MAKING ANOTHER LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL
VIETNAM COAST NEAR TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VWS AND CONTINUED ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
THOUGH THERE IS SOME INCREASING CROSS AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU
120. OVERALL HOWEVER, THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#372 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:50 am

Hayabusa wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:That's still warning 10 at the time of this post as JTWC hasn't updated the graphic yet on their site. Check my post above, and please don't use hotlinking, hotlinking will cause to load the image directly from JTWC's servers and that is bad. Please download the image and upload it to an image hosting site like imgur.

I had ZERO idea it was hotlinking, is the Satellite imagery also considered hotlinking? How can I save it without it being it not showable?

You download the image then upload it to an image hosting site like imgur then you use it to post the images here.

Ok, but I don't have Imgur at all. May never get it at all for a long while. . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#373 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:53 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:I had ZERO idea it was hotlinking, is the Satellite imagery also considered hotlinking? How can I save it without it being it not showable?

You download the image then upload it to an image hosting site like imgur then you use it to post the images here.

Ok, but I don't have Imgur at all. May never get it at all for a long while. . .

There are other image hosting sites that doesn't require an account, you can google lots of it.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#374 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:56 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:I had ZERO idea it was hotlinking, is the Satellite imagery also considered hotlinking? How can I save it without it being it not showable?

You download the image then upload it to an image hosting site like imgur then you use it to post the images here.

Ok, but I don't have Imgur at all. May never get it at all for a long while. . .



use gifyu, no registration whatsoever.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#375 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:04 am

Goni is now crossing the 16th parallel
Image
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#376 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:11 am

mrbagyo wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:You download the image then upload it to an image hosting site like imgur then you use it to post the images here.

Ok, but I don't have Imgur at all. May never get it at all for a long while. . .



use gifyu, no registration whatsoever.


Okay, this is my first gifyu image, I'll use gifyu from now on.
Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#377 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:43 am

Wow what a monster! Needs to start weakening soon though for the sake of those in the Philippines...
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#378 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:49 am

[youtube]https://youtu.be/RV2dBOvSgxc[/youtube]
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#379 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:22 pm

Goni appears to be slightly weakening, but it still has a >15C eye and a solid CMG donut of convection, so it’s likely still a 150+ kt Cat 5. Maybe the JTWC will do one of their late intensity bumps and either lower the pressure a bit or make this 160 kt.
Image
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#380 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:26 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Here comes the dreaded SW dive
https://i.imgur.com/tFdYjXh.gif

What an eye
https://i.imgur.com/8a0uV1Z.gif

Image
Source

Given the comparable cloud-top temperatures, high background pressures, ERI, and the small inner core, Goni was probably at least as strong as Haiyan at its peak.
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