ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

This convective burst with the vort max/llc is quickly starting to expand the westerly inflow in the south side.

and so it begins..

[kevin]

In terms of storm potential the Caribbean water is very favorable atm, especially considering we're this late in the season. Pretty much the entire Caribbean can support anything up to a cat 5. Does anyone have any ideas regarding shear the coming days? Hopefully that can inhibit strengthening a bit.

[Wampadawg]

With this being 2020 how crazy would it be to hit Texas in November

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT missed 94L again. . .

[EquusStorm]

Looking good, probably ahead of schedule. Be interesting to see if earlier development than expected changes anything on future runs. Might drag it further north before the expected stall and dive.

[ElectricStorm]

Based on what we've seen this month in this area, I would think 96L has a decent shot at ramping up pretty quickly. That mid-level shear has been pesky for systems over here though so that may be another factor in play with this one as well

[Iceresistance]

Satellite has lost the circulation inside 96L

[us89]

Latest TWO keeps this at 70/80:

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is
gradually becoming better organized, and conditions appear
conducive for further development. A tropical depression is
likely to form this weekend or early next week as the system moves
westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless
of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall
across portions of the ABC islands and Jamaica through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1321910455695265792
If this ends up moving into CA, then maybe the Florida “shield” is real after all.

I think the Nov TC's pretty much came from CAG's.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1321917745659871232

[Jr0d]

Given it's current speed, it will really have to put on the brakes to not run into CA. I know it's expected to slow down this weekend, but doubtful it will stall before landfall.

I definately think climatology can be thrown out the window, especially after Zeta.

[aspen]

Oh boy, HWRF goes pinhole as Eta nears CA. This is worrying because the last time the HWRF predicted a pinhole...well, go look at 155 kt Super Typhoon Goni with a <10 mile-wide eye.

[Iceresistance]

Is there a circuation inside 96L?

[Iceresistance]

Oh boy, HWRF goes pinhole as Eta nears CA. This is worrying because the last time the HWRF predicted a pinhole...well, go look at 155 kt Super Typhoon Goni with a <10 mile-wide eye.

Like, how strong with the wind & pressure?

[kevin]

Oh boy, HWRF goes pinhole as Eta nears CA. This is worrying because the last time the HWRF predicted a pinhole...well, go look at 155 kt Super Typhoon Goni with a <10 mile-wide eye.

Like, how strong with the wind & pressure?

937 mbar, 119 kts @108 hours. After that it makes landfall at the Nicaragua/Honduras border.

[Iceresistance]

Oh boy, HWRF goes pinhole as Eta nears CA. This is worrying because the last time the HWRF predicted a pinhole...well, go look at 155 kt Super Typhoon Goni with a <10 mile-wide eye.

Like, how strong with the wind & pressure?

937 mbar, 119 kts @108 hours. After that it makes landfall at the Nicaragua/Honduras border.

That is a CAT 4 140 mph & 937 MB.

[Shell Mound]

There is a real risk that this system could stall as it nears and impacts Central America. Depending on timing and proximity, our prospective system could technically make landfall on the Miskito Coast but not move far inland before turning northward, toward western Cuba and/or Florida. Bear in mind that the Miskito Coast is quite marshy and relatively flat, while mountainous terrain lies well inland. A powerful system that briefly impacts Central America and does not proceed well inland would only weaken slightly before reemerging over the Gulf of Honduras. One could then see, hypothetically, a Category-4+ landfall near Cabo Gracias a Dios, followed by a track that curves northward toward Pinar del Río, the Keys, and/or southernmost peninsular Florida.

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT missed 96L for a fourth time! :/

[Shell Mound]

Just like Zeta, this system is potentially getting underplayed by American interests. Like Matthew or Dorian this system will likely make a sharp turn northward after slowing, stalling, and/or drifting. How far inland it moves over Central America will be critical. At this point I suspect that certain models are failing to initialise the incipient organisation that is occurring more rapidly than expected. This, in turn, may well lead to a turn farther east, along coastal Central America, near the Nicaragua–Honduras border, rather than over the mountainous interior. While not precluding a brief landfall on the coast, this would minimise interaction with land, before the turn commences. I think certain parts of peninsular Florida may be unpleasantly surprised.

[aspen]

At this point I suspect that certain models are failing to initialise the incipient organisation that is occurring more rapidly than expected.

Well, ASCAT’s stormtrooper aim certainly isn’t helping. This might be nearly closed but there’s no data to prove it or put into the models.

[SFLcane]

There is a real risk that this system could stall as it nears and impacts Central America. Depending on timing and proximity, our prospective system could technically make landfall on the Miskito Coast but not move far inland before turning northward, toward western Cuba and/or Florida. Bear in mind that the Miskito Coast is quite marshy and relatively flat, while mountainous terrain lies well inland. A powerful system that briefly impacts Central America and does not proceed well inland would only weaken slightly before reemerging over the Gulf of Honduras. One could then see, hypothetically, a Category-4+ landfall near Cabo Gracias a Dios, followed by a track that curves northward toward Pinar del Río, the Keys, and/or southernmost peninsular Florida.

My question to you is although climo wise a track ne is what you’d expect but all I see in the modeling is a big high pressure ridge building in a few days hence the big wsw dips in the models. I just don’t see it right now